EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I see this peaking anywhere from 90-160 knts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As said 92E should have no problem reaching Cat.3 or higher. But 160kt? I'm not sure about that
I bet even Linda won't receive the 160kt rating today due to a more conservative ADT version

I see no reason why not really if it gets lucky.

Rick 09 got an ADT rating of 155-160 knts. NHC of course went with 155 knts. I don't think ADT even existed prior to crica 2003.

[Kingarabian]

Fully expect this to be a Cat.5 Hurricane.

[Alyono]

I would want to see recon go and get the data but I know they will not go.

they would fly if it is a threat to California. However, the models are trending away from that

[gatorcane]

This invest looks like it will be a monster when all is said and done. I wonder if it will reach CAT 5?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive consistency and agreement with the models, and possibly another monster. Not surprised if this would surpass Amanda and Halong, possibly even Genevieve.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through Day 5



Much stronger than last run thus far

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS run rolling; Marie deepens to 958mb at 180 hr which equates to category 3 and that is NOT YET THE PEAK.... Another hurricane that will go bonkers.

[Kingarabian]

She's hungry.

She's ready.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm thinking the TWO % will get raised soon.

[Yellow Evan]

958mbar right at truncation

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Basing solely on the HWRF (for 72hr before) and GFS (120hr), the intensity forecast would be like this, and is quite bullish.

0600 UTC Fri
INITIAL 30 KTS
12HR 35 KTS
24HR 45 KTS
36HR 50 KTS
48HR 70 KTS
72HR 75 KTS
120HR 95 KTS

And if it peaks at 940mb as the GFS has predicted, then in this basin that would be around 120 kts.

[supercane4867]

06z GFS is much more intense...near 930mb at 160 hours

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[tolakram]

The euro backed way off the intensity in last nights run. Very odd, though of course models are horrible at intensity predictions.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06z GFS is much more intense...near 930mb at 160 hours

934 mb rounds up to around 240-260 kph (150-160 mph) and that may even be conservative.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The euro backed way off the intensity in last nights run. Very odd, though of course models are horrible at intensity predictions.

When the models agree with Euro, then they switch with another solution. But based on the WPAC experience, the model is very accurate in intensity and track forecasts when it ACTUALLY has formed. The best model so far, the HWRF is quite bullish in intensification but their timeframe is limited to 126 hrs.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So, the environment is very favorable; 5-10 kts of wind shear and above-average SSTs to the west and Northwest. Also, no moisture problems so far enhanced by Karina and Lowell (I guess?), which means the chance of a major is 100% IMO.

UNOFFICIAL FORECAST

00H 20 KTS
12H 20 KTS
24H 25 KTS
36H 25 KTS
48H 30 KTS
60H 55 KTS
72H 85 KTS
84H 95 KTS
96H 100 KTS
108H 115 KTS

FROM PRESENT

FROM 00Z Fri - Formation

12H - 35 KTS
24H - 50 KTS
36H - 75 KTS
48H - 85 KTS

long range forecasts

72H - 110 KTS
96H - 140 KTS
120H - 125 KTS

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Fully expect this to be a Cat.5 Hurricane.

Agree. Conditions are just too favorable for just only a category 3 or 4.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Fully expect this to be a Cat.5 Hurricane.

Agree. Conditions are just too favorable for just only a category 3 or 4.

Inner core dynamics (such as eyewall replacement cycles) come into play when talking about the intensity of powerful hurricanes, which is why many Category 4 hurricanes never intensify further to Category 5 intensity.