EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[stormkite]

Good much better heartbeat today the pulse is back.

[Extratropical94]

Meanwhile it's up to 20/40.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Finally, looks very good. I suppose they will raise the chances in the upcoming TWO, because banding features are getting much better now. The convection is also responding to diurnal maximum.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 30/50:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few days while
it moves northwestward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Will the JTWC issue another TCFA on the system?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Good much better heartbeat today the pulse is back.

Initially, I thought this would look bad and fail again. That burst of convective activity close to the LLCC is very impressive. Because of the convective burst and sudden organization, the TWO increased the chances of development to 50% within the next 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Visible satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
becoming better organized near an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

ASCAT shows circulation is almost closed.

[SeGaBob]

92E is looking pretty good today... maybe it could give us something to watch without any destruction.

[Kingarabian]

Potential is there.

This is going to probably be a small system which means it should be easy for it to strengthen. All it lacks right now is consistent decent convection.

[hurricanes1234]

I never thought this would happen. Maybe we will really see Amanda out of this. What are the models saying in terms of intensification? Do you think it'll be classified in a couple of hours?

[djones65]

TD One-E has been classified and advisories initiated as of 2100 UTC!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 107.4W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the
southwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the
past 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the
system has a sufficiently well-defined center. Therefore,
advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of
the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at
25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from
both TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest
while located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from
Mexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt. The depression
is expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south
of a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely
keep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days. In
fact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly
stationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering.
The official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the
west-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model
consensus TVCE.

The depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical
shear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification
during the next few days. There is some disagreement among the
intensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however.
For example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below
tropical storm strength for about 48 hours. On the other hand, the
SHIPS RI index indicates a 42e of a 25-kt increase in winds
within the next 24 hours. With the RI index relatively high, the
official forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days.
By days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the
intensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

There we have it!

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, surprising. Well, let the games begin!!!

[hurricanes1234]

I don't believe it! The season has officially begun as of May 22! One-E is here!

[euro6208]

First tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere...

[Yellow Evan]

First tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere...

Lusi and/or Mike did not make it past 180 in the SPAC?

[hurricanes1234]

Gaining that tropical storm appearance now. Better banding and improving center.

[MGC]

Surprised this has taken off today. This morning I checked and the probility was 30%. Just goes to show how fast things can change in the tropics. Expecting a lot more depressions this year in the EPAC.....MGC