WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amazing
TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 October 2014

<Analyses at 07/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E134°10'(134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E131°25'(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E131°50'(131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[Ntxw]

Way too conservative numbers, just monster looking. Wow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mini HAIYAN Appearance wise it is 160 knots.

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC warning graphic.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that intensity is conservative and the 6.5 is only due to constraints. I would go with 150 kt right now personally. When you have intense storms rapidly intensify you need to turn off the constraints - the ADT is a better estimate for sure.

[euro6208]

2014OCT07 133200 7.5 898.7 155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.23 -78.43 EYE 29 IR 93.7 17.51 -133.79 COMBO MTSAT2 24.2

Solid 155 knots...

[supercane4867]

TXPQ22 KNES 071509
TCSWNP

A. 19W (VONGFONG)

B. 07/1432Z

C. 17.5N

D. 133.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR A DT=7.0
WHEN 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 7.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

[euro6208]

Perfect...

[euro6208]

Eye incredibly warm at +19.3C and convection at -80C...

SSMIS suggesting 160 knots...

[mrbagyo]

19.31.. whoa...

The highest for Haiyan per SSD is 21.82

2013NOV07 155700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.75 -85.14 EYE 24 IR 103. 10.55 -127.47 COMBO MTSAT1 19.1
2013NOV07 163000 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 20.59 -85.13 EYE 24 IR 103. 10.56 -127.30 COMBO MTSAT1 19.3
2013NOV07 171300 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 20.27 -84.07 EYE 25 IR 103. 10.58 -127.08 COMBO MTSAT1 19.5
2013NOV07 173000 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 20.59 -83.52 EYE 24 IR 103. 10.69 -126.89 COMBO MTSAT1 19.7
2013NOV07 183000 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.60 -83.76 EYE 24 IR 103. 10.69 -126.63 COMBO MTSAT1 20.0
2013NOV07 185700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 21.82 -84.55 EYE 24 IR 103. 10.76 -126.48 COMBO MTSAT1 20.2
2013NOV07 193000 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.44 -83.97 EYE 25 IR 103. 10.75 -126.30 COMBO MTSAT1 20.3
2013NOV07 195700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.71 -83.86 EYE 25 IR 103. 10.81 -126.15 COMBO MTSAT1 20.5

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Nida 2009 at 155 knots...



Super Typhoon Megi 2010 at 165 knots (recon confirmed)

It looks alot like Megi with a developing spiral band to it's southwest...Vongfong likely stronger...

[mrbagyo]

2014OCT07 150100 7.4 884.8 +2.0 152.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.82 -78.27 EYE 31 IR 93.8 17.65 -133.54 COMBO MTSAT2 24.5

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

12Z deepens this to 926 mb and direct hits Okinawa at 936 mb...Amazing back to back strong typhoons for the Japanese islands that's still recovering from monster Phanfone days ago...EURO slightly east of track

*Although this is already very likely sub 900 mb as data continues to underestimate...

[supercane4867]

Donut of Doom

[mrbagyo]

2014OCT07 153200 7.4 884.8 +2.0 152.0 7.4 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.92 -75.56 EYE 32 IR 93.8 17.66 -133.45 COMBO MTSAT2 24.6

[euro6208]

I hope JTWC does 3 hourly updates on this but likely not...Would be sickening that this is likely at peak intensity or starts to weaken due to EWC and next advisory upgrades it to only 140 knots based on 7.0 (We've seen this numerous times)...This is likely in the neighborhood of 150 to 165 knots now...We need recon...

[euro6208]

2014OCT07 160100 7.5 898.6 155.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.51 -79.06 EYE 31 IR 93.7 17.68 -133.28 COMBO MTSAT2 24.7

155 knots but RAW stronger now at 7.6 = 158 knots...

[euro6208]

Continues to strengthen...WOW!

[supercane4867]

I agree to put the intensity at 155kt now, though a more conservative estimate of 150kt is still reasonable