EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

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#181 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:02 pm

Looking at VIS, starting to look a little bit like a hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#182 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:03 pm

:eek:

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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#183 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:06 pm

All the images being posted in the thread since the beginning have showed that Marie will be a hurricane that may go to record books if all pans out among the favorable factors.
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#184 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:19 pm

Absolutely amazing. Now as for intensity goes, it depends on what pattern Dvorak is using. Cloud cover or Banding? That could determine it's intensity at 3z.
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#185 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:22 pm

I'd almost call this a hurricane. If there was recon I bet it would be. Just beautiful structure and picturesque. This is going to be one of the best looking WHEM storms in quite some years.

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#186 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:I'd almost call this a hurricane. If there was recon I bet it would be. Just beautiful structure and picturesque. This is going to be one of the best looking WHEM storms in quite some years.

Image


Reminds me of a lot of WPAC/SHEM TC's prior to RI.
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#187 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:26 pm

With the tropical storm forecast to peak at 115 kts, it may actually peak at 135-160 kts. As the NHC is conservative in predicting intensities of potentially powerful hurricanes, we may have a very huge and powerful monster from this. Marie's satellite presentation is the most impressive for a tropical storm in a while. I am impressed by its convection, banding, outflow and structure. All the needed environmental conditions for a monster are currently present. :eek:
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#188 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:27 pm

EP, 13, 2014082300, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1042W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 30, 1009, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
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#189 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:30 pm

60 kt seems reasonable; maybe a hurricane by advisory time.
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#190 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:46 pm

No doubt in my mind that this is a hurricane.
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#191 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:47 pm

Looking like it's about to hit EI now.
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#192 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:49 pm

Barely 500 posts on these three storms combined and over 2,000 on one that doesn't even exist yet in ATL.
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#193 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:51 pm

Image

Whoa.
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#194 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:52 pm

Code: Select all

 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.4 / 981.9mb/ 74.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.2     4.3     4.3

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -35.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -51.4C

 Scene Type : EYE 


ADT begs to differ.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#195 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:10 pm

Likely forming an intense eyewall

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#196 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:21 pm

Microwave presentation doesn't quite support a hurricane, but it's almost there.
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#197 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:23 pm

What is TAFB/SAB at?
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Re:

#198 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:25 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:What is TAFB/SAB at?

Both at T3.5
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#199 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:26 pm

TXPZ29 KNES 230016
TCSENP

A. 13E (MARIE)

B. 22/2345Z

C. 13.6N

D. 103.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 1.5 DEG WELL DEFINED CDO. MET IS
3.0 AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#200 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:31 pm

Once we get that eye to complete and clear it out what a beast she will be.

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