WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.


ROTA WAS PLACED IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS 1 AT 500 AM.
GUAM WAS PLACED IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1 AT 800 AM. TINIAN AND
SAIPAN WERE PLACED IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION OF READINESS 2 AT
500 AM.
CONDITION OF READINESS 1 MEANS DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 65 MPH OR GREATER ARE OCCURING...

[euro6208]

Latest warning out. Remains a 55 knot tropical storm...

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

[euro6208]

Very heavy rains falling for the past few hours with gale force gusts......

[supercane]

For Guam Int'l, highest wind report I could find was:
PGUM 300037Z 27033G46KT 1/4SM +RA FG VV007 24/24 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 27046/0032 P0089
(sustained wind out of W 33kt with gusts to 46kt) with lowest pressure of 1004.5 mb/29.67", compared with most recent report of:
PGUM 300217Z 24020G36KT 4SM -RA BR FEW007 BKN024 OVC030 24/24 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 26039/0156 P0004

For Andersen Air Force Base, highest wind gust was:
PGUA 292308Z AUTO 28018G46KT 1/4SM R06R/2200FT +RA FG VV007 25/24 A2968 RMK AO2 VIS 1/4V3/4 CIG 005V007 $
(46kt) and highest sustained wind was lower:
PGUA 292323Z AUTO 28020G30KT 1/2SM R06R/2800FT +RA FG VV006 24/24 A2968 RMK AO2 $
(20kt) with minimum pressure of
PGUA 300158Z AUTO 29013G29KT 1 3/4SM RA BR OVC006 25/24 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 29031/43 VIS 3/4V1 3/4 SLP024 P0051 T02450237 $
(1002.4 mb, 29.63 in Hg)
compared to current:
PGUA 300213Z AUTO 29013G25KT 1/2SM R06R/3000FT +RA FG SCT004 OVC008 25/24 A2964 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V1 CIG 005V008 $
Although note maintenance flag $ at end of METAR reports.

While winds appeared to have peaked at Guam, Rota reporting its highest winds with most recent report:
PGRO 300150Z 14033G43KT 5SM -RA BR BKN030 OVC050 25/25 A2949
(sustained wind out of SE at 33kt gusts 43kt) with lowest pressure earlier:
PGRO 300015Z 10025G41KT 1 1/2SM RA BR SCT000 BKN035 OVC050 26/25 A2944 RMK BR SCT00
(997.0 mb, 29.44 in Hg)

Most concerning with this system is the heavy rainfall, with Guam and Rota under a Flash Flood Warning.

BTW, the most recent JMA advisory and (typically spare) prognostic reasoning below:
WTPQ51 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 13.8N 145.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 14.4N 142.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 010000UTC 15.2N 140.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 020000UTC 16.7N 139.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 030000UTC 18.7N 138.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
120HF 040000UTC 20.6N 138.3E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =

WTPQ31 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 1411 HALONG (1411)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[euro6208]

Latest Discussion...

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 37 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD. A 292345Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI, ABOVE MENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS
RADAR FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS
IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED
IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY HAS DECREASED DUE TO PERSISTENT
MODERATE VWS AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DYNAMICAL-NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 95 KNOTS
AT TAU 72.
B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 36,
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER FROM THE NORTHWEST MODIFIES THE
STR, CAUSING TS HALONG TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS, UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY AND LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
C. TS HALONG IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND DIVERGES AFTERWARD.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300225
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 6B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
1200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG PASSING ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS IF HALONG SHOULD CHANGE COURSE.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CHST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 145.0E

ABOUT 48 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 13 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1200 PM CHST...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

Halong will surely clean up some old rotten trees or branches that could be a safety hazard in the future...

[euro6208]

flooding in tumon

[euro6208]

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-typhoon-halong-guam-forecast-20140729

Tropical Storm Halong Hammers Guam

[euro6208]

Another round of strong convection over Guam!

Eye located to the north...

[euro6208]

Another great website talks about Halong and 96W...

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/

[euro6208]

000
WGMY50 PGUM 300315
FFWMY
GUC010-100-300600-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0004.140730T0315Z-140730T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
115 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF GUAM AND ROTA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CHST.

* AT 100 PM CHST...RAIN CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE OVER GUAM AND ROTA
AS TROPICAL STORM HALONG PASSES OVER THE MARIANAS. RAINFALL OF 7
TO 9 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON GUAM AND 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ON ROTA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS GUAM. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ON ROTA. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FUTURE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNOFF CONTRIBUTING TO MORE FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GUAM.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 400 PM CHST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1425 14532 1401 14525 1375 14492 1356 14503
1327 14488 1318 14466 1345 14457 1393 14503
1428 14514

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300325
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
200 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM ROTA...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED.

TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.1N 144.9E

ABOUT 46 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
144.9 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[HURAKAN]

thanks for sharing those pics, stay safe!

[euro6208]

Massive flooding reported around Guam...Additional 4-6 inch likely as 7-9 inch has already fallen...

[Equilibrium]

HALONG looks to be gaining intensity on radar any opinions?


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

More pictures ...

https://www.facebook.com/GuamPDN/photos_stream

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Halong is messed up. There is moderate shear from the Northwest hampering intensification, I initially have thought that Halong is already a typhoon. Right now, this does not look like 55 kts at ALL. This is good news for those in Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't get it why the agencies are forecasting at least an 80-kt typhoon. Maybe typhoon strength at 65-75 kts and not more than that, despite a favorable upper-level and lower-level environment and warm SSTs. Shear would increase even more if it turns northwesterly, well it's not like that to the southwest.

[euro6208]

000
WWGM80 PGUM 300848
AWWGUM
GUZ001-302100-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
650 PM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

A HIGH WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM THURSDAY.

WINDS WITHIN 5 NM OF THE AIRPORT WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
240 DEGREES AT 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST OR
220 DEGREES AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AROUND 100 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS.

$$

AYDLETT