WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 120kts.

08W NEOGURI 140705 1800 17.4N 134.5E WPAC 120 933

[hurricanes1234]

Intensifying a lot slower than expected.

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC updated intensity and track takes Neoguri just west of Okinawa causing them to be in the worse quadrant of a cat 4 moving thru.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Neoguri is looking pretty good at the time being. It could well become more potent if it continues to strengthen...

Analysis of Neoguri and other systems: http://goo.gl/l3W3Zm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

We have members on here in Okinawa? How well would they withstand a direct hit from a Cat 4-5 storm?

[StormingB81]

Where are the storm2k posters from Okinawa? I remember some who are active in the forum when the typhoon season heats up. And this howler is forecast to affect the island!

Unfortunately some of them left the island due to them in the military and such. I do miss reading their reports though! Hopefully we get some new members to join from up there...

I left in 2012....I have been talking ro friends who are still there the dont have S2K

[cycloneye]

Where are the storm2k posters from Okinawa? I remember some who are active in the forum when the typhoon season heats up. And this howler is forecast to affect the island!

Unfortunately some of them left the island due to them in the military and such. I do miss reading their reports though! Hopefully we get some new members to join from up there...

I left in 2012....I have been talking ro friends who are still there the dont have S2K

I am posting at the Kadena base Facebook page.

https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase? ... 9122491916

[hurricanes1234]

Estimates going up as the ring of grey begins to completely encircle the eye.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.0 7.0

[CrazyC83]

That looks to be about 130 kt now.

[Frank2]

Good NWS graphic on Neoguri that be will updated every 6 hours:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/images/guam/errorTrack1.jpg

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track stays at 120kts.

08W NEOGURI 140706 0000 18.0N 132.9E WPAC 120 933

[stormcruisin]

Cinnamon Roll



2014JUL06 003200 6.9 903.0 +1.8 137.4 6.5 6.3 6.3

[hurricanes1234]

I'm starting to wonder if it will really attain the expected status since it is not intensifying at the forecasted rate. It strengthened 5 knots today. However, that's just my opinion which is not meant to be official.

[stormcruisin]

Its holding and appears to be running true to the above intensity track its a catastrophic system.

[cycloneye]

0300z update still has track of cat 4 intensity just west of Okinawa.

[stormcruisin]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Some dry air still appears to be getting entrained into the circulation of Neoguri, slowing the intensification rate today. However, the storm is beginning to pass over the warmest waters on the planet and the upper-level flow is becoming increasingly more conducive (already very favorable) for intensification. We'll see how high this gets. Probably not a Haiyan, but still an absolute monster nonetheless.

[StormingB81]

We have members on here in Okinawa? How well would they withstand a direct hit from a Cat 4-5 storm?

In 1999 Okinawa was hit by Super Typhoon Bart....They had winds of 160 MPH....It caused $5 million dollars of damage on Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. They also they said 28 Inches of rain. When I was there we were told the windows can withstand winds of up to 200 mph.. Of course the cars and light polls and trees would stand no chance but the homes are all concrete slabs and would withstand the winds..

[StormingB81]

One more thing. I talked with a buddy in Okinawa they have started preparing for this storm and looks like not taking this one lightly...I am sure there are a few who still believe that Okinawa cant be hit with a big typhoon because they always turn at the last minute....We all know alls it takes is one to make believers at of everyone and could be costly if you act stupid in them. I told them to send me lots of photos and will post them here as I get them..and depending when they can get on depending on the power situation..

[stormcruisin]

JMA forecasting a super ty.

TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 6 July 2014

<Analyses at 06/00 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N18°00'(18.0°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S650km(350NM)
N440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°55'(20.9°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N24°50'(24.8°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°40'(29.7°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL650km(350NM)


The beast will be off the leash.