EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

She looks good, can't wait to see what she does within the next 24 hours. It's too bad this basin doesn't get the activity like Atlantic, quality stuff.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just woke up and I was amazed when I saw Cristina! It looks like a strong hurricane now. Looks excellent and it is compact, although, Cristina should be a little more cinvective.

[hurricanes1234]

Actually, the Atlantic is less active than the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific is the second most active basin on Earth, and is usually more active overall.

[Ntxw]

Actually, the Atlantic is less active than the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific is the second most active basin on Earth, and is usually more active overall.

Active as in posters following it . If Cristina was sitting in the Carib we would be at page 50.

[supercane4867]

She looks good, can't wait to see what she does within the next 24 hours. It's too bad this basin doesn't get the activity like Atlantic, quality stuff.

http://i62.tinypic.com/25qq3aw.gif

Likely already nearing Cat.2 strength. NHC might have to raise forecast intensity considerably in the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kts.

EP, 03, 2014061200, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1054W, 75, 983, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Actually, the Atlantic is less active than the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific is the second most active basin on Earth, and is usually more active overall.

Tbh, I think the WPAC gets a little more action than the EPAC.

Still, EPAC interest has skyrocketed since 2006.

[hurricanes1234]

Back on topic, I would amateurly estimate Cristina at 80 knots. But I strongly think they'll go with 75 knots.

EDIT: A ring of red is almost completely surrounding the center! Now I'm tempted to say this looks like 85 knots to me. Wouldn't be surprised if we have a Category 2 by the advisory.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Back on topic, I would amateurly estimate Cristina at 80 knots. But I strongly think they'll go with 75 knots.

EDIT: A ring of red is almost completely surrounding the center! Now I'm tempted to say this looks like 85 knots to me. Wouldn't be surprised if we have a Category 2 by the advisory.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Really looks to be deepening.

Too bad the SSMIS pass missed the center badly.

[Ntxw]

She can see, albeit squinting.

[Kingarabian]

She can see, albeit squinting.

Raw T# have shot up to 5.6.

Adj T# @ 5.0.

Has a chance to make a run @ major status.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm almost certain they'll go higher than 75 knots, based on the increasingly organised ring of convection now completely surrounding the center.

[Yellow Evan]

Given 77 knts is in between 75 and 80 knts, I'm hoping they go to 80 knts. If this was IMD or FMS or even the JMA, they'd go at 75 knots probs though.

[Kingarabian]

Pinhole eye.

Making a run at major hurricane status.

[hurricanes1234]

Personally, I would go as far as 90 knots based on satellite appearance. There is a full ring of very deep convection surrounding the center, and the structure continues to improve with each frame. I've noticed that Category 1s usually don't have this type of well organized structure that we're seeing here with Cristina.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I think 90 knts is pushing it (lack of evidence), but 85 knts is not unreasonable.

[cycloneye]

Cat 2 now.


HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

Cristina continues to gain strength. The eye has become more
distinct in recent satellite images, and cloud tops surrounding
the center have cooled. In addition, the overall cloud pattern
appears more symmetric than earlier this afternoon with better
organized banding features. Dvorak classifications were 4.5/77 kt
from both TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC. Since that time, the eye has
become surrounded by white cloud tops on the Dvorak IR curve, which
suggests that Cristina's winds have increased to at least 85 kt.

The hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional
strength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low
while Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters. In 2 to 3 days, the
environment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone
begins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear. These
hostile conditions should cause weakening, and Cristina is expected
to become a remnant low in about 5 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term
to account for the observed strengthening trend, but is otherwise
unchanged.

The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling, but a smooth initial
motion estimate is 290/5. A slightly faster west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while
Cristina moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system. By the end of the forecast period, the weakening
storm is expected to turn back toward the west steered by the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of
the previous one trending toward the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

They're forecasting a peak of just below major hurricane strength. Since dry air no longer seems to be an issue for now, I would give it a small chance of attaining major hurricane strength.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

They're forecasting a peak of just below major hurricane strength. Since dry air no longer seems to be an issue for now, I would give it a small chance of attaining major hurricane strength.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why won't it become a major?

[supercane4867]

Actually at this point I will be surprised if she doesn't reach major strength