ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Arthur's radar appearance is starting to degrade. Storm looked better earlier this evening when it was futher away from the radar site. Looks to be making CPA to the JAX radar site now. We'll see what the next recon finds.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the data from the gulfstream there is still significant mid level dry air... though much less than last night and even earlier today.. this can be realized by the lack of any real outer bands. the cyclone pretty much only consists of the inner core ... very little in the way of outer rain bands... looks annular in nature expect the dynamics are not the same. there does appear to be a moderate influx of more moist air coming from the south and even moderation to the north.. tonight and tomorrow will likely see more intensification assuming it can tap into the higher moisture content..

There is also outflow issues on the north and north west sides that are causing problems

[hurricanes1234]

I'm a little confused at what's going on with Arthur in terms of strength. Seems like dry air has slowed the intensification of this storm from day one...

[ravyrn]

Imagine that, Arthur is currently the strongest cyclone on the planet. And could possibly cause significant destruction to the United States. So much for season cancel...?

It's barely July. How can anyone say season cancel when it's hardly started?

[NDG]

looking at the data from the gulfstream there is still significant mid level dry air... though much less than last night and even earlier today.. this can be realized by the lack of any real outer bands. the cyclone pretty much only consists of the inner core ... very little in the way of outer rain bands... looks annular in nature expect the dynamics are not the same. there does appear to be a moderate influx of more moist air coming from the south and even moderation to the north.. tonight and tomorrow will likely see more intensification assuming it can tap into the higher moisture content..

I agree, the problem is not the shear so much, there is still some mid level dry air to the north, clearly shown on the 0z sounding from Charleston S.C., SHIPS guidance was initialized with H70-H50 RH at 49%, that's fairly low, I like to see that closer to 60%

[ozonepete]

looking at the data from the gulfstream there is still significant mid level dry air... though much less than last night and even earlier today.. this can be realized by the lack of any real outer bands. the cyclone pretty much only consists of the inner core ... very little in the way of outer rain bands... looks annular in nature expect the dynamics are not the same. there does appear to be a moderate influx of more moist air coming from the south and even moderation to the north.. tonight and tomorrow will likely see more intensification assuming it can tap into the higher moisture content..

Yeah Aric, I just checked latest RUC data and forecasts along with the GFS and they have much less mid-level dry air forecasted now. 700mb looks fine and 500mb RH starts out with some 30% RH around it on the North and SW sides but it's forecasted to moisten up considerably by tomorrow afternoon and thereafter. Since it will be staying over warm SSTs and under low shear, it should start intensifying more easily tomorrow without the ups and downs it's been having as it periodically chokes on dry air at mid-levels. Then it should develop a much nicer banded pattern with a solid core.

[CarolinaNBANFL]

LOL just poking fun

[Time_Zone]

Doesn't have a whole lot of time.

Good call by the NHC calling for a category 1 from the get go. Looking like they nailed the intensity dead on from the start.

[SouthernBreeze]

I would think pulling in the moisture that's moving across northern FL would give Arthur a little boost

[dexterlabio]

I'm leaning towards the Euro solution. It didn't show Arthur becoming a hurricane at this moment. Intensification is expected 12-24 hours from now.

[Fego]

I see a lot of convection developing in the right side of Arthur center.
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... g&itype=wv

[Cyclenall]

In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...

Don't get too excited, you will be burned by the end of the year. Doesn't prove anything except we won't have a 0/0/0 season (was looking forward to reactions on that front), and its not actually a hurricane yet so lets not jump. So far nothing has transpired that I didn't predict overall but I thought it would take much longer.

[dexterlabio]

Don't get too excited, you will be burned by the end of the year. Doesn't prove anything except we won't have a 0/0/0 season (was looking forward to reactions on that front), and its not actually a hurricane yet so lets not jump. So far nothing has transpired that I didn't predict overall but I thought it would take much longer.

There's always a little bit of "fun" even at the lamest pre-EN season. In 2009 we had a Category 4 Hurricane Bill. Arthur just popped out at the right place and at the right time. There's a small window to support a hurricane and Arthur is exactly on that spot...

[JonathanBelles]

New Post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/07/02/ts ... s-hoisted/

[supercane4867]

Arthur is doing ok this evening, although western quadrant remains weak the core structure is very apparent on microwave imagery



In fact satellite estimates are pretty bullish with ADT already up to 77kt

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.2mb/ 77.0kt

[Rail Dawg]

Been doing this a long time love the models but gut feelings still can rule the day.

Cat 2 at Cape Hatteras lighthouse.

[Cyclenall]

There's always a little bit of "fun" even at the lamest pre-EN season. In 2009 we had a Category 4 Hurricane Bill. Arthur just popped out at the right place and at the right time. There's a small window to support a hurricane and Arthur is exactly on that spot...

I didn't find Hurricane Bill to be interesting that year, I was bored with "him". 2009 was terrible, and it wasn't until 2013 that an even worse one came along.

[ozonepete]

I'm leaning towards the Euro solution. It didn't show Arthur becoming a hurricane at this moment. Intensification is expected 12-24 hours from now.

Hey dexy! Good to see you back here. Your point is well taken. I remember a few days ago seeing the Euro forecasting there would be a disorganized fairly weak low until Thursday and then "BAM!" for Thursday it had a significant hurricane approaching the NC coast. Although it didn't get the disorganized low part right I believe it was right that this can take off tomorrow. If the forecasts are right that mid-level dry air really eases tomorrow then there's no reason this won't intensify fairly suddenly and rapidly in the next 24 hours. It sure looks like most of the other models agree with tomorrow being the day.

[TheAustinMan]

Like many others, I believe that this apparent disorganization, and perhaps weakening phase, is only temporary, and Arthur will likely be able to recycle out at least some of the dry air it has ingested once the digging trough swinging into the East Coast kicks the dry air pool from the Southeast coast northeastward and provides an outflow channel for Arthur. Unlike yesterday night and early this morning Arthur (at least for now) is maintaining some sort of centralized convection, which will allow Arthur to hold its own a bit longer. Microwave imagery seems pretty decent as well. Low-level wind shear where Arthur is headed seems pretty favorable for the most part. On another note I've liked the NHC monitoring of this system – it always seems in the short term that things are going to go well off-forecast but then in the long run the NHC is right on cue.

[Fego]

An eye, related or not with dry air?