ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models
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Re:
artist wrote:How did hwrf handle the last 2 storms?
Pretty much nailed Arthur, at least in the shorter term
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Re:
artist wrote:How did hwrf handle the last 2 storms?
It did very well on intensity with both Arthur and Bertha, including having Bertha becoming a hurricane much earlier than NHC was initially predicting.
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:18z SREF ensembles..
What is SREF?
Short Range Ensemble Forecast
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The Enthusiast
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ConvergenceZone
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hehe you can always tell when the models are trending east over water by the reduced amount of people browsing this board 
....I agree that while a recurve is not in stone, it's definitely looking more and more like that will happen, especially when compared to how it was last night and since we are getting closer to the timeline, the reliability of a recurve is also increasing.
....I agree that while a recurve is not in stone, it's definitely looking more and more like that will happen, especially when compared to how it was last night and since we are getting closer to the timeline, the reliability of a recurve is also increasing.
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
Breathing a bit easier tonight in SFL now, but I'm going to wait for the complete 00z suite before I start to let my guard down.
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floridasun78
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Re:
ConvergenceZone wrote:hehe you can always tell when the models are trending east over water by the reduced amount of people browsing this board
For sure. There's a good chance the storm stays far enough east of FL to put the state in a region of subsidence which would serve to actually reduce afternoon convection and confine any impacts to the east coast surf zone and just provide a nice breeze over land. I'll take it.
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OuterBanker
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
And,it looks like we will be spared too. Just close enough to kick up the surf for the surfing championship and all will be good.
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: Re:
psyclone wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:hehe you can always tell when the models are trending east over water by the reduced amount of people browsing this board
For sure. There's a good chance the storm stays far enough east of FL to put the state in a region of subsidence which would serve to actually reduce afternoon convection and confine any impacts to the east coast surf zone and just provide a nice breeze over land. I'll take it.
Yea, phew! that was close....Even though the cone has eastern Florida in it still , I'd expect that to shift probably east by later tonight....
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
has TD4 organized enough at the center that any reformation say within 50 miles in any direction isn't still possible? Initialize the next set of models 50 mi NE or SW of the current one, you could see model swings just based off of that alone.
always about the trend - the trend is your friend~
always about the trend - the trend is your friend~
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
I would still be looking at this with one eye and not quite dismissing it if I lived in Florida. A lot of factors still at play...ie(how much this may deepen tonight will determine which way it goes, trough, ridge etc.) I do have to say though the trend seems to be an east shift...but you still can't dismiss the euro ensembles showing a cluster in gulf and Florida.
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OuterBanker
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models
Based on the model trends today and the NHC's forecast, I think there will be some track adjustments, but not enough to make it a threat to US land. The "-removed- index" on this system here has been the highest I've seen it in 2-3 years.
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