EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Any maps of Linda? Arguably thats the highest bar for EPAC systems

I posted some sat images a few pages back.

But here's Linda's track.

[Kingarabian]

ADT will be our friend for this storm.

Code: Select all

        CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.3 /1001.2mb/ 51.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.3     3.5     4.0

 Center Temp : -77.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION


[cycloneye]

Any maps of Linda? Arguably thats the highest bar for EPAC systems

Linda was a very powerful beauty.Will Marie rival her?

[srainhoutx]

Any maps of Linda? Arguably thats the highest bar for EPAC systems

Linda was a very powerful beauty.Will Marie rival her?

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-180&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

same, no map: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-180&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=none

[tolakram]

GOES-W family loop, Maria just moving into range.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-105&info=vis&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[supercane4867]

Linda was one of the only two hurricanes to reach T8.0 on objective Dvorak analysis which topped the scale, another one was Gilbert in the Atlantic side

[somethingfunny]

I hope we can get rapid scan satellite running for Marie's intensification!

[Yellow Evan]

Linda was one of the only two hurricanes to reach T8.0 on objective Dvorak analysis which topped the scale, another one was Gilbert in the Atlantic side

Not counting typhoons I assume.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF revised down to 50 knts.

EP, 13, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1030W, 50, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 0, 70, 1012, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1030W, 50, 1000, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[Kingarabian]

Buzzsaw disc look.

[jaguarjace]

Looks great.

[Yellow Evan]

I think it may be in a slight phase of unarrested development right now. Still intensifying, but has a bit more banding than I'm use to.

[cycloneye]

Peak now up to 115kts.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie continues to intensify. Satellite images show a well-
organized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and
numerous rain bands surrounding the center. The current intensity
estimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and
data from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses. The tropical cyclone
will be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical
shear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the
intensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie. In
particular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4
status in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which
shows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next
24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS
guidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS
models thereafter.

Marie continues its west-northwestward trek and the motion estimate
is 285/12, which is close to the climatological mean for the basin.
The track forecast and forecast reasoning are basically unchanged.
Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-
tropospheric ridge that is forecast to build westward from northern
Mexico through the forecast period. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and remains close to the model
consensus.

The forecast wind radii at days 2-3 have been increased, based on
the global models, which depict a large hurricane by that time
frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[hurricanes1234]

This is amazing! I won't rule out possible Category 5 status. Can we beat Linda? I don't think so, because that was an extremely powerful hurricane. I'm estimating around 135-145 knots.

[Yellow Evan]

This is amazing! I won't rule out possible Category 5 status. Can we beat Linda? I don't think so, because that was an extremely powerful hurricane. I'm estimating around 135-145 knots.

It can. Just not likely since those super intense canes are rare. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

[Hurricane_Luis]

Just looking at ADT and the pressure has gone down from 997.2 mbar to 995.9 mbar. Wind speed also up from 57kts to 60 kts. Start of RI?

[cycloneye]

Is almost there to become a hurricane.