ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#161 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:34 am

00Z Canadian; 228hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#162 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:35 am

Image
12z... Shift back north again...

Image
06z...

I think what we take from these models is a general area 96L will be moving...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#163 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:39 am

Blown Away wrote:http://i62.tinypic.com/28s4ilz.jpg
12z... Shift back north again...


Models appear to be trying to take it towards the progged 500MB weakness that is supposed to develop over the Bahamas and Western Atlantic this weekend...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#164 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:48 am

...but the 12Z GFS shows the system weaker and further west, while the Atlantic ridge is stronger than 24 hours ago...
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#165 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:49 am

12Z GFS is not out yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#166 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:52 am

Look at the initialization on those plots - 12z is about 2 degrees further north. TVCA hasn't budged much which is consensus approach.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#167 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:59 am

gatorcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:http://i62.tinypic.com/28s4ilz.jpg
12z... Shift back north again...


Models appear to be trying to take it towards the progged 500MB weakness that is supposed to develop over the Bahamas and Western Atlantic this weekend...


That is exactly right. As a matter of fact, the models have been trending east and north since last night. Still a long time to go and the models will keep changing, but the weakness next week is going to be one of the critical elements early next week to watch.
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#168 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:11 am

I just realized the 06Z GFS ensembles are out - they too have shifted to the east....though still a large spread:

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#169 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:30 am

06z GFS +228

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#170 Postby ktulu909 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:40 am

well damn,I sure hope that doesnt verify.
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#171 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:26 am

12Z GFS starts running in 3 minutes...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#172 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:35 am

yeah but if 96L stays south or weak from land interaction.....its not gonna recurve in the western Atlantic. Until the ECM jumps on board with the recurve - I'd be skeptical.
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#173 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:40 am

12Z GFS is weak yet is also not far south of PR

Weak does NOT equal west
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#174 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:41 am

yes, through hour 54 is south of PR moving W. Looks very weak, maybe a closed TC.
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#175 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:42 am

sharp wave at 60 hours. Looks to move over Hispañiola
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#176 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:43 am

Saved image of 12Z GFS at 54 hours with the weak low south of Puerto Rico:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#177 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:45 am

Unlikely but nice color scheme on this .. FIM experimental with a hurricane heading for sfl. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsK ... 2014+-+00Z

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#178 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:46 am

Maybe a bit better organized through hr66, but its still sort of weak. This run will not break free and go out to sea IMO
edit: It looks like its getting tangled into the islands. Forget development until it reaches the "slot" if that happens.
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#179 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:56 am

12z GFS has the h85 vorticity going straight over Hispaniola. Land interaction could definitely keep this system at bay while tracks around the Lesser Antilles.
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#180 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:58 am

Yes getting tangled between Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola...at 96 hours:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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