CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

they may be placing far too much weight on SHIPS. I checked the actual fields... low shear throughout and SSTs are around 26C for the duration.

I'd be forecasting a lot higher than NHC is

[Yellow Evan]

they may be placing far too much weight on SHIPS. I checked the actual fields... low shear throughout and SSTs are around 26C for the duration.

I'd be forecasting a lot higher than NHC is

According to the SHIPS, the shear is not enough to make much of a difference in intensity.

VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm very impressed with Iselle. For a storm forecast to peak as a Category 1 initially.

[Kingarabian]

I think it was working out some inner core kinks. We have a pinhole eye now and a stronger eye wall with deep convection surrounding the eye.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Despite a slight weakening, I think it may intensify into a major due tosome improvements on the structure of the storm and favorable conditions.

09E ISELLE 140803 0600 15.2N 131.4W EPAC 90 970

[Kingarabian]

I honestly think it's at least 100kts and that it's rapidly deepening.

Look at those very cold gray tops now forming around the eyewall.



ADT final numbers are at 5.6 and increasing as the raw T# are at 6.2.

[somethingfunny]

Iselle looks good and I think it is strengthening some right now... but that is not a pinhole eye.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030851
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

The overall satellite presentation of Iselle hasn't changed much
during the past several hours with strong convection in the eyewall
and an eye which is intermittently obscured by cirrus clouds.
Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly, so
the initial wind speed will remain 95 kt.

Although Iselle is probably near peak intensity, it still has a
short window of time today to become a major hurricane. It is not
likely to strengthen much, however, due to Iselle moving closer to a
less favorable thermodynamic environment. Since wind shear is
forecast to remain low, only gradual weakening is anticipated after
today while Iselle moves over marginal SSTs for the next couple
of days. One possible pitfall of this forecast is that, given the
forecast storm environment, Iselle could evolve into an annular
hurricane, which could delay the weakening during that time. Late
in the period, an increase in both shear and drier air aloft will
probably help to weaken the storm while it approaches the Hawaiian
Islands. The official NHC intensity forecast is close to the
previous one and the intensity consensus.

The cyclone continues to move westward or 275/9. A subtropical
ridge north of Iselle should steer the storm on this general path
for the next few days, with a slight deceleration expected in a day
or so due to the ridge temporarily weakening. Guidance is in very
good agreement through day 3, and the NHC forecast through that
time us basically an update of the previous one. After that time,
Iselle should move on a more west-northwestward heading at a faster
forward speed due to the ridge rebuilding. The model guidance has
shifted northward on this cycle, which seems reasonable given the
forecast synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is moved in
that direction. It should be noted that the bulk of the guidance is
north of the latest NHC forecast at long range, and further
adjustments in that direction could be required on later forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[somethingfunny]

The NHC is currently predicting a 50 mph tropical storm at 11PM Thursday. I have no idea what timezone they're using though. Pacific Daylight Time I suppose, and when CPHC takes over then the advisories will be in Hawaii Standard Time.

[Yellow Evan]

The NHC is currently predicting a 50 mph tropical storm at 11PM Thursday. I have no idea what timezone they're using though. Pacific Daylight Time I suppose, and when CPHC takes over then the advisories will be in Hawaii Standard Time.

Correct.

[Alyono]

has clearly intensified overnight and is now near cat 3.

Shear according to SHIPS may drop to 1 kt in 24 hours. I could see this making a run at cat 4

[euro6208]

Two major hurricane/typhoon in the Pacific with the possibility of 2 more!

Quite Impressive...

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a major.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCF confirms it

EP, 09, 2014080312, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1323W, 100, 965, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 50, 70, 1010, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080312, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1323W, 100, 965, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 1010, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080312, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1323W, 100, 965, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 10, 20, 1010, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

[Kingarabian]

has clearly intensified overnight and is now near cat 3.

Shear according to SHIPS may drop to 1 kt in 24 hours. I could see this making a run at cat 4

I think it has been a cat. 3 for the past few hours. Satellite agencies all support a cat.3 hurricane at the least.

I agree it could reach cat. 4 strength easily.

[Yellow Evan]

has clearly intensified overnight and is now near cat 3.

Shear according to SHIPS may drop to 1 kt in 24 hours. I could see this making a run at cat 4

I think it has been a cat. 3 for the past few hours. Satellite agencies all support a cat.3 hurricane at the least.

I agree it could reach cat. 4 strength easily.

I'd go with 105 knt assuming Dvorak is at 5.5 and ADT values are higher.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030851
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

The model guidance has
shifted northward on this cycle, which seems reasonable given the
forecast synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is moved in
that direction. It should be noted that the bulk of the guidance is
north of the latest NHC forecast at long range, and further
adjustments in that direction could be required on later forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hawaii residents should start paying attention.

But I'll never forget Daniel of 2006. Was a major hurricane in the EPAC and was expected to hit Hawaii as a tropical storm after it entered the CPAC. Of course that didn't happen as stronger than expected shear tore it apart

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030851
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

The model guidance has
shifted northward on this cycle, which seems reasonable given the
forecast synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is moved in
that direction. It should be noted that the bulk of the guidance is
north of the latest NHC forecast at long range, and further
adjustments in that direction could be required on later forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hawaii residents should start paying attention.

But I'll never forget Daniel of 2006. Was a major hurricane in the EPAC and was expected to hit Hawaii as a tropical storm after it entered the CPAC. Of course that didn't happen as stronger than expected shear tore it apart

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I haven't looked at models, but when I do, ill post them here.

Regarding Daniel 06, it's problem was its very slow motion which caused steering currents to collapse and weaken more quickly over the cool SST's. Daniel 06 was an epic storms though, a truly annular hurricane. That won't be an issue this time around.

[Alyono]

EC is still showing a very strong, tight system plowing over the Big Island

[RL3AO]

Recon gonna need to reposition soon.