EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts

EP, 03, 2014061100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1035W, 55, 996, TS

[Yellow Evan]

TAFB/SAB/ADT all have 3.5.

Not shocking, given SAB constraints are no longer a factor.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. This is a very impressive and interesting storm! When I last came here, Cristina was only a weak TS. It is starting to get that "intensifying to hurricane" appearance on VIS.

[hurricanes1234]

Oui! I was right. Personally, I would expect this to be a hurricane by tomorrow. Could this be the start of possible quick intensification?

[Yellow Evan]

Oui! I was right. Personally, I would expect this to be a hurricane by tomorrow. Could this be the start of possible quick intensification?

Quick? Yes IMO Rapid? Maybe

[Yellow Evan]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc14/EPAC/03E.CRISTINA/ssmi/85h/20140610.2138.f15.85h.03E.CRISTINA.45kts.1001mb.15.5N.103W.87pc.jpg

[Steve820]

It will be a bit surprising if it actually did start to rapidly strengthen, but it shouldn't Amanda-out. If it does, which I really doubt will happen, I'll be very shocked. Anyways, Cristina is looking impressive, it could become a hurricane tonight. My predicted peak: around 90-105 mph.

[Yellow Evan]

Cristina has an eyewall, though it is open to the E. Still, Cristina still looks pretty good for a 55 knt system. Some dry air oh of MX is hurting it.

[Kingarabian]

Cristina has an eyewall, though it is open to the E. Still, Cristina still looks pretty good for a 55 knt system. Some dry air oh of MX is hurting it.

I think it's still in the process of developing it. Microwave imagery certainly looks better though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This should pull up again the EPac ACE. It would pull more if this gets stronger, and long-lived.

About the tropical storm. Now, so far this is the 2nd best looking TS IMO over the Northern Hemisphere this year, only behind when Amanda was a TS. This storm is also compact, and organizing very fast. Never mind the dry air if the system is compact.

[Yellow Evan]

Cristina has an eyewall, though it is open to the E. Still, Cristina still looks pretty good for a 55 knt system. Some dry air oh of MX is hurting it.

I think it's still in the process of developing it. Microwave imagery certainly looks better though.

It's IMO probs still a few hours away from closing it off. It's moving away from MX, so dry air should be less of an issue.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Cristina is intensifying this evening. The compact central dense
overcast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been
apparent in geostationary satellite images. The initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak
classifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain
fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring
in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the
center. Recent research has documented that lightning in the
outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor
of significant intensification. The only apparent factor that could
limit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry
air, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so.
In about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of
stronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should
end the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken. The
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and
is pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN.

Cristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6
hours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5. A westward
to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so
while the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge
over northwestern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest
is predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. The NHC
track forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, I never knew that lightning like that was a sign of intensification. Interesting. Also, Cristina has an odd and very compact "fist appearance" that means it's intensifying. I'd say there's a chance we awaken tomorrow morning with a hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, I never knew that lightning like that was a sign of intensification. Interesting. Also, Cristina has an odd and very compact "fist appearance" that means it's intensifying. I'd say there's a chance we awaken tomorrow morning with a hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have.

I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO. Dry air has entered the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it's Cristina's way of keeping it out. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Cristina has an eyewall, though it is open to the E. Still, Cristina still looks pretty good for a 55 knt system. Some dry air oh of MX is hurting it.

I think it's still in the process of developing it. Microwave imagery certainly looks better though.

It's IMO probs still a few hours away from closing it off. It's moving away from MX, so dry air should be less of an issue.

From the North West now. Certainly is getting there now.

[Yellow Evan]

From the North West now. Certainly is getting there now.

I think it's getting a little dry sir from the NW now. Should not last long.

[Kingarabian]

Core continues to improve. It's probably at 60Kts right now, if not stronger. Could make a run at Hurricane status before the 11PM update.

[Kingarabian]

Latest microwave images jumped the FINAL T# ADT values from UW-CIMSS to Hurricane status.

4.4 / 981.4mb/ 74.6kt

Code: Select all



                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  11 JUN 2014    Time :   051500 UTC
      Lat :   15:10:22 N     Lon :  104:11:08 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.4 / 981.4mb/ 74.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.4     4.4     2.8

 Center Temp : -40.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -53.8C

 Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY
              Maximum CURVED BAND with 1.16 ARC in LT GRAY
               at Lat:  15:10:12 N  Lon: 103:58:48 W

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON   
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   50km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1011mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES13
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.9 degrees

NHC was spot on with the rapid intensification note in the last advisory. Looks like it's in the process of RI right now.

[supercane4867]

There's a good chance that Cristina is becoming annular