ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[got ants?]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I don't. The last NHC advisory (11:00am) said 24-36 hrs before hurricane status. If they up that at all, it would still not be today...

[Hammy]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Personally I don't think so because the NHC will most likely hesitate to upgrade as long as they don't have any proof (e.g. recon data) for hurricane status.

Though the recon tends to get there after the advisory, and while I don't think they'll find hurricane winds, if they do afterwards they'll likely issue a special statement upgrading it.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Personally I don't think so because the NHC will most likely hesitate to upgrade as long as they don't have any proof (e.g. recon data) for hurricane status.

That's an Intermidiate Advisory @ 2pm so I HIGHLY doubt it, if anything 5pm seems more likely.

At the most they will increase the winds to 65mph IMO since the 11am forecast only calls for it to be a 65mph TS in 12hrs.

[jaguarjace]

Close-up false color RGB imagery.

Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/mlb.html

[TheStormExpert]

Arthur has a nice circulation with an eye peaking out, but I'm also really watching that convection in the GOM.

I don't know if my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the things are heating up.

Looks like an eye is trying to form now.

[Jevo]

12z HWRF is still running but it's sticking with it's 06z guns on a Beaufort area initial landfall in 39 hours at 978mb and running through the Bay between the mainland and OBX then out to sea.

http://i.imgur.com/twXAjKW.gif

[tolakram]

Hi all.

For local reports from emergency management, observations, etc, please refer to the local observation thread here where you may find mor epertinent local information.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116431&hilit=

As for making statements and forecasts.

WE HAVE A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP OF THIS FORUM Please include that in your post or a version similar to it that conveys the same message. This is required here when making predictions.

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Thanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Plane is in operational altitude so we will know shortly what is going on with Arthur.

[WxEnthus]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I don't. The last NHC advisory (11:00am) said 24-36 hrs before hurricane status. If they up that at all, it would still not be today...

I doubt they will pull the trigger at 2pm, the plane has not yet reached the storm so they would likely wait on actual readings to confirm. But if they find sufficient data to support upgrading the status to a hurricane they will do so, either at the next scheduled update or through a special statement. They won't hold off 24 hours just because it wasn't predicted to become one yet, things change and sometimes quickly, for instance if a storm undergoes RI. It all depends on the data.

[TheStormExpert]

Here in Palm Beach Gardens, FL you would not know that an Upper-end TS in the works of trying become a Hurricane is about 170 miles NE of us just by going outside.

[AdamFirst]

It has been breezier in Miami today than the past couple days. Arthur's influence on the pressure gradient?

[Kingarabian]

Arthur looks so unorthodox. Is that eye the real deal or is half full with dry air?

NRL site is down, so can't look at any microwave imagery to tell.

[Hurricaneman]

The storm isn't perfect, there's an opening in the eyewall on the SE side but if that closes this could get stronger than the NHC has it at current

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[supercane4867]

Wrapping up nicely to build a closed eyewall

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[got ants?]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I don't. The last NHC advisory (11:00am) said 24-36 hrs before hurricane status. If they up that at all, it would still not be today...

I doubt they will pull the trigger at 2pm, the plane has not yet reached the storm so they would likely wait on actual readings to confirm. But if they find sufficient data to support upgrading the status to a hurricane they will do so, either at the next scheduled update or through a special statement. They won't hold off 24 hours just because it wasn't predicted to become one yet, things change and sometimes quickly, for instance if a storm undergoes RI. It all depends on the data.

I should've added a comment about the 2:00pm report. What I meant to say was I doubt the storm will become a hurricane as per thier predictions, even though they have been known to go awry. But still, storms do not reach hurricane status just because it looks like one. It must meet the criteria of 75 MPH sustained winds...

[got ants?]

2:00 pm advisory is out...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1742.shtml

[jlauderdal]

It has been breezier in Miami today than the past couple days. Arthur's influence on the pressure gradient?

arthur is the major player today including the feeder band going through now...ts arthur has us in its grasp until tomorrow

nws did a good job sniffing out this activity that has developed this afgernoon....sunshine earlier today really helped to get things going vs yesterday where we had that low cloud deck that shut things down

last night around 10 was very active though

[Frank2]

Just my opinion, but based on the above radar graphic Arthur is moving at 030 - we'll see what the vortex message indicates, but the trough is getting close to the US EC and no doubt it's going to start influencing Arthur's movement at any time, if not already...

Frank

[bamajammer4eva]

Doesn't look like some tropical systems have in the past. It's more spread out rather than strong and compact looking. Any chance that the eye is so big because this wasn't really tropical to begin with but instead it's just a "home grown" storm?