ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

WV image shows the trough continuing to dig. It certainly doesn't look like a typical late August pattern, more like October or November. The Bermuda High is completely gone, might as well call it the "Bermuda Low". No wonder the models show quick recurve with this setup:

[gatorcane]

Latest VIS floater - looks like it has stalled to me. Convection continues to build so it looks like it could be strengthening some:

[Steve]

Fun storm to track. I love the shape of the nhc's track which starts with a backwards s, exactly what I had. Track and effects I had out there will bust because i assumed, clearly wrongly, that Cristobol could get to 78-78.5 west. But the center reformations nixed more of a wnw movement in favor of NW heading (currently 325) which should keep it maybe 200 miles farther east. Correspondingly, it gets north a little quicker. With the NHC track, Bahamas get what I thought Florida would get, and maybe it makes a run at a cat 1 instead of 2 east of the Carolinas. They are at the western edge of guidance bringing it only as far west as 75.5. Maybe some good surfing this week along the SE coast.

This post is not official.

[NDG]

You would think that the news director would tell these weekend TV mets how to pronounce Cristobal, is "crystal ball", is Cristóbal , with an accent on the "o"!!! lol

Anyways, going back to the TS, it looks elongated south to north, maybe this is why some models turn it north east so fast, a piece of energy might broke off later while the main surface feature stays behind.

[tropicwatch]

WV image shows the trough continuing to dig. It certainly doesn't look like a typical late August pattern, more like October or November. The Bermuda High is completely gone, might as well call it the "Bermuda Low". No wonder the models show quick recurve with this setup:

http://i58.tinypic.com/11gsw10.jpg

Forecasters have that front coming down from the Northeast coming through my area in the panhandle but between the front coming in from the west and high pressure between the two, I don't think it is going to make it.

[sunnyday]

Recurve should have been the name of this storm all the way. That's about all that happens in the Atlantic anymore.

Only my opinion. See the NWS and NHC for predictions.

[johngaltfla]

WV image shows the trough continuing to dig. It certainly doesn't look like a typical late August pattern, more like October or November. The Bermuda High is completely gone, might as well call it the "Bermuda Low". No wonder the models show quick recurve with this setup:

http://i58.tinypic.com/11gsw10.jpg

Forecasters have that front coming down from the Northeast coming through my area in the panhandle but between the front coming in from the west and high pressure between the two, I don't think it is going to make it.

That's pretty much the consensus from the mets in my area of SW Florida. It's a fish according to them.

[jlauderdal]

Recurve should have been the name of this storm all the way. That's about all that happens in the Atlantic anymore.

Only my opinion. See the NWS and NHC for predictions.

most systems do recurve, can you imagine if most didnt..ouch

2 months left

[GCANE]

Cirrus canopy appears to be building from the overshooting tops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[cycloneye]

Note=Those who are tracking Cristobal I say take a moment and visit the Hurricane Marie thread to see what a very powerful hurricane looks like.

First post of saved images at Marie thread

[tropicwatch]

Now that's a hurricane

[CYCLONE MIKE]

WV image shows the trough continuing to dig. It certainly doesn't look like a typical late August pattern, more like October or November. The Bermuda High is completely gone, might as well call it the "Bermuda Low". No wonder the models show quick recurve with this setup:

Agree 100% And yet this same set up is forecast to occur late next week or the weekend with another front expected to make its way into the deep south with strong east coast trough. Just don't see a major pattern shift as some have been saying will happen.

[tolakram]

25 frame visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25

Looks typical for an Atlantic storm of late. Hopefully this will put on a good show after leaving the islands.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Recurve should have been the name of this storm all the way. That's about all that happens in the Atlantic anymore.

Only my opinion. See the NWS and NHC for predictions.

Well get used to it. Until will get a major pattern change thats about all you will see, weak storms recurving out to sea. Like gatorcane said this setup is like October/November. And it sure doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.

[SouthFLTropics]

With the way the pattern is set up about the only way we will see a conus threat will be from a storm forming in the GOM or the NW Caribbean and pulled north over the states.

[toad strangler]

Recurve should have been the name of this storm all the way. That's about all that happens in the Atlantic anymore.

Only my opinion. See the NWS and NHC for predictions.

Well get used to it. Until will get a major pattern change thats about all you will see, weak storms recurving out to sea. Like gatorcane said this setup is like October/November. And it sure doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.

Well we are now talking PRE US Civil War for the last stretch of no hurricane of ANY cat to make landfall in FL. Considering the vast stretch of coast line from Jacksonville all the way to the pan handle, that is impressive.

We all know that Wilma was the last on 10/24/2005. Right on the door step of 9 years.

Amazing!

[sponger]

That is an awfully deep trough for August.

[WeatherGuesser]

Note=Those who are tracking Cristobal I say take a moment and visit the Hurricane Marie thread to see what a very powerful hurricane looks like.

First post of saved images at Marie thread

Yeah, I was about to say, "Y'all know there's a REAL storm over yonder <<<<< , right?"

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why don't you guys track Cristobal together with Major HURRICANE Marie? It's a real storm, and is forecast to peak at 140 kts.

[TheStormExpert]

With the way the pattern is set up about the only way we will see a conus threat will be from a storm forming in the GOM or the NW Caribbean and pulled north over the states.

Yeah a Wilma type track is the only way Florida could get affected by a Tropical Cyclone this season. Fortunately the Caribbean as a whole and the GoM have not been all that favorable so far.