ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

A weaker system would favor a more westward track and just the opposite if the system strengthens - with the approaching trough if it remains weaker than stronger it would be in my opinion more of a rain event for the east coast than a tropical storm or hurricane threat...

Again, just my own opinion though would like to know what the pro mets think about this statement (other than it's just Frank being frank - lol)...

Frank

[HurriGuy]

dry air will not be a problem for much longer. That trough coming in fast and as long as Arthur keeps as it is, he'll be fine.

[got ants?]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

Looking at this, I see a different aspect that needs to be noted.

Last night around 1:30 am we were watching the outflow building over the NE quadrant. Looking at this latest loop I see outflow wrapping around, along the west side. Basically along the coast of FL. This to me is typical of 2 scenarios we see in storms early development. Either a rapid intensifaction, or an up and down cycle, but still intensifying. Keep in mind this is an early season storm, and those usually act like the latter...

[robbielyn]

guess aric and others sleeping still after long night. wheres wxman57 and others?

[RL3AO]

Looking pretty good this morning on visible. I suspect we will see intensity continue to go up throughout the day. Question of course is track. ECMWF keeps it off the coast at around 971mb. GFS is over the outer banks at 983mb. Of course the GEM makes landfall in NC proper. Should be a fun 48 hours of tracking.

[Frank2]

Also sleeping probably - it was a long night last night (long night for me too)...

[Frank2]

TWC just retweeted this photo - Arthur as seen from the ISS:

https://mobile.twitter.com/astro_reid/s ... 96/photo/1

P.S. In the lower left you can see Lake O and the SE FL coastline and me waving : )

[Rail Dawg]

Very big decisions to be made for Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks. The locals know hurricanes many of the tourists do not. Evacuation routes are slim.

[ConvergenceZone]

I always look at the amount of people on the board which is a nice barometer that tells me whether a storm is a threat to land or not......Nonetheless, it's fun to track a storm that's moving just offshore....

[got ants?]

Looking impresssive now..

[Mouton]

What is with that blow up of moisture in the GOM south of Panama City? Will that moisture migrate into this system?? Otherwise on the Sat, there seems ample dry air in front of and to the west so far to keep this storm in check IMO.

[sandyb]

I am from the coast of NC Carteret County its a hot sunny day here I don't see us getting much of Arthur as right now it looks to stay pretty far of shore...even the Outer Banks don't look like it will be so bad for them

[OuterBanker]

My guess no evac this am because of time constraints.

Too many people, not enough time.

All National Park Services will close at noon.

http://www.darenc.com/emergencymanagement/

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Arthur looks like a Hurricane right now on radar. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[ronyan]

11pm advisory holds it at 60 mph, 997mb

[adam0983]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all anyone will see is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. I am in West Palm Beach Just an opinion not a forecast.

[wxman57]

Looks much more impressive to me on satellite & radar. Convection starting to wrap around the center. Dry air becoming less of a factor. Don't see any reason at all to nudge the track westward. It still looks like the center will track just east of Cape Hatteras early Friday morning. Residents on the Outer Banks should evacuate, however, as nothing is ever certain with hurricane forecasting. They could be looking at a Cat 2 landfall Thursday night. They'll be able to return during the day on Friday after Arthur passes.

[artist]

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/ VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

[Sanibel]

It seems like it is pulsing between dry air hits and rebursts.

[got ants?]

Looks much more impressive to me on satellite & radar. Convection starting to wrap around the center. Dry air becoming less of a factor. Don't see any reason at all to nudge the track westward. It still looks like the center will track just east of Cape Hatteras early Friday morning. Residents on the Outer Banks should evacuate, however, as nothing is ever certain with hurricane forecasting. They could be looking at a Cat 2 landfall Thursday night. They'll be able to return during the day on Friday after Arthur passes.

Good call!!! I especially like that you mention they can quickly get back on the island shortly after Arthur passes...