WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

Hagupit is not looking that hot right now. Is it Dmin time?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CMA latest typhoon forecast has Hagupit at 125 kts following the track of ECMWF, making landfall over the Visayas.

[euro6208]

Hagupit should have been retired long time ago. Used in 2002 and 2008, it caused over 100 deaths and over 3 billion dollars in damage from a tropical storm and a category 4 typhoon with almost the same exact track although both occured in september...

[cycloneye]

Hagupit is not looking that hot right now. Is it Dmin time?

Contrary to yesterday that was upwards in a few hours with the organization,today so far is flat but there is plenty of warm waters ahead and conditions are favorable aloft so it may resume the upwards intensity phase soon.

[euro6208]

Background MPI is 160 knots and a central pressure as low as 860mb!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA is favoring south-central Samar Island

[euro6208]

Again, it's really astonishing that this basin has no recon whatsoever despite many countries here that can contribute even the U.S for Guam and because of this, models and warnings are really underestimating the strength of this storm currently (which can save many lives) thus they rely on dvorak and sometimes surface obs...We need a NOAA-G-IV jet to sample the environment...Big loss to meteorology on the world's strong tropical cyclones...

[cycloneye]

15:00 UTC warning by JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 5.5N 150.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5N 150.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.6N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 7.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 8.5N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.4N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.8N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 5.8N 150.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z
AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

JTWC refers to a Northeast surge event the cause for HAGUPIT to weaken a little.What is that a trough?

IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED
BAROCLINICITY. BECAUSE OF THE SURGE EVENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.//

Trough and cold surge...

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA3r-NSLuVI[/youtube]

Update...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

COAMPS onboard with ECMWF... Weakening as it turns west, although this model is unusually conservative.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 011124Z METOP-B 89 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 180-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24,
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY DUE TO IMPROVED UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED
BAROCLINICITY. BECAUSE OF THE SURGE EVENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN AND WESTWARD TURN NEAR TAU 120.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER TAU 96.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Great video by Rob as he explains in simple terms all the factors down the road.

[cycloneye]

12z operational and Paralell GFS continue with the recurve scenario.See loops below.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _wpac.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _wpac.html

[gatorcane]

wow this one looks like it could be a biggie based on how bullish the global models are on this one. I hope it ends up recurving like the GFS model suggests but it is an extremely slow recurve even on the GFS...the ECMWF still shows it staying west under a ridge. This one is going to be an nail-biter for sure as to whether it can recurve or not.

[cycloneye]

12z NAVIGEM is a little bit closer than GFS on last frame.



12z GEM makes landfall.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF continues with the landfall scenario.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 45kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141201 1800 5.9N 149.1E WPAC 45 989

[dexterlabio]

JMA model now hints at a recurve but a bit closer to the the west than the GFS track. Will this affect their next 5-day forecast track?

[cycloneye]

JMA tracks WNW and bends more west at the end.

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 1 December 2014
<Analyses at 01/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°50'(5.8°)
E149°20'(149.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°10'(7.2°)
E142°40'(142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°30'(9.5°)
E136°30'(136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)