EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Based on development trend and latest ADT numbers Norbert may very well become a hurricane at 18z

[Alyono]

would be a lot more recon if this does head toward California

[CrazyC83]

would be a lot more recon if this does head toward California

They would likely require 6-hourly fixes, presumably out of a different base, if it heads for California as a TC. Keesler AFB is too far from areas west of about 115W to fly there easily.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

...NORBERT ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 109.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. NORBERT SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THAT GENERAL MOTION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY...AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Almost a hurricane unless they upgrade at advisory time.


EP, 14, 2014090318, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1090W, 60, 989, TS

[CrazyC83]

TXPZ21 KNES 031814
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORBERT)

B. 03/1800Z

C. 19.4N

D. 109.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING FOR DT=3.5. MET=3.0 WITH PT=3.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

No basis for an upgrade yet.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure why SAB and TAFB are giving this a T3.5/55kt.

[CrazyC83]

That looks like about a T4.5 to my naked eye, but I would need to see the microwave imagery.

The Dvorak B&W image isn't too impressive though. That is definitely no more than T3.5. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... ry/bd0.gif

[WeatherGuesser]

12Z GFS has this very near the US/Mexico Border as a coherent system

Time frame?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

...NORBERT TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 109.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ MEXICO
TO SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. NORBERT
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ON THAT
GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

Satellite images indicate that Norbert is still on an
intensification trend. While no eye is apparent in visible imagery,
recent microwave imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form.
The cyclone has a long curved band around the southern and western
semicircle wrapping into the small central dense overcast. A blend
of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives 60 kt as the
initial wind speed.

It is hard to find a reason why Norbert will not significantly
intensify during the next day or so since it will remain over very
warm waters, the shear does not appear to be that detrimental, and
it already has many features of an inner core. Yet the best model
guidance is lower than 6 hours ago, with no forecast above 80 kt for
a peak intensity. With so many favorable environmental factors and
the low model bias observed this season (and this cyclone), the new
NHC forecast will stay close to the previous one. Weakening should
begin in a few days when Norbert moves over cooler waters and into
the more stable atmosphere of the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean.

After a brief westward track, Norbert appears to be moving more
to the west-northwest, or 300/6. Global models are in good
agreement on a weakening ridge over northwestern Mexico forcing the
storm to move northwestward over the next few days. Model guidance
is well clustered on a track offshore of Baja Califoria Sur, except
for the GFDL which has a known northward bias in this region.
Norbert is still expected to pass close enough to bring tropical-
storm-force winds to portions of the state. The new forecast is a
little farther south of the previous one during the first 24 hours,
mostly because of the earlier westward motion. Little change has
been made to the rest of the forecast, which is just to the west of
the dynamical track consensus.

Moisture from the combination of Norbert and the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly is expected to spread northwestward
across northern Mexico during the next couple of days, and into the
southwestern United States over the weekend. Heavy rain causing
life-threatening flash flooding are possible in those regions.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.9N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.0N 112.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brings it close to northern Baja as a weakening systems. This could maintain its intensity for more than climo says.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Surprised that this has not yet been upgraded to a hurricane, given the impressive satellite presentation. The NHC is conservative also in giving the intensity forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

Surprised that this has not yet been upgraded to a hurricane, given the impressive satellite presentation. The NHC is conservative also in giving the intensity forecasts.

I'm blaming the guidance more than the NHC. This has been a tough year to forecast.

This is right on the edge between TS and hurricane IMO.

[supercane4867]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

...NORBERT BECOMES A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 109.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

5 Day cone drops it back to TS before it gets near SoCal.

[Yellow Evan]

New record! 8 hurricanes in a row!

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 032336
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014

...NORBERT BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 109.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. NORBERT
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ON THAT
GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM
THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[galaxy401]

The 8th consecutive hurricane in the EPAC! The season continues to be impressive.

[Ivanhater]

Models showing impressive rainfall totals for the Vegas area from Norbert. ..could be an exciting weekend if trends continue...

[Yellow Evan]

P, 14, 2014090400, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1096W, 70, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 70, 80, 1004, 140, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090400, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1096W, 70, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 1004, 140, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090400, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1096W, 70, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 10, 1004, 140, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

70 knts

[Yellow Evan]

Models showing impressive rainfall totals for the Vegas area from Norbert. ..could be an exciting weekend if trends continue...

GFS shows close to an inch of rain for southern Nevada over the next 5 days or so.