EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[somethingfunny]

Quite amazing

That is gorgeous. Where did you find it?

[supercane4867]

EP, 13, 2014082206, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1003W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, M,

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone have a hold of Rick's microwave images at its peak?

Oh my goooooodness.

[supercane4867]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 101.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone
was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the
center. Since that time, the convective pattern has become
significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system
is now a 40-kt tropical storm. Earlier microwave data indicated
that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a
precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are
favorable. With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of
atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it
appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a
hurricane in about 24 hours. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the
forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant
deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches
cooler waters. The statistical-dynamical models are also
incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category
4 hurricane in 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly
between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the
guidance. This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now
explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the
forecast period.

Marie's initial motion is 290/16 kt. A mid-level high is centered
near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending
westward into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to build
westward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this
pattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of
the forecast period. The model guidance is tightly clustered, and
the NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this
advisory to follow the overall model trend.

It should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a
large cyclone in a few days. The forecast wind radii have been
expanded, but additional increases may be required in future
advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

Rick 2.0.

Rick's little sister is ready to rock and roll.

[cycloneye]

WOW,RI may be going on bigtime.Saved image.

Note=When posting images you can save them to have a evidence of how Marie is doing as time goes by and to preserve it for the archieves.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Impressive image. This is going to be fun storm to track throughout my long weekend!

[Hurricane_Luis]

WOW,RI may be going on bigtime.Saved image.

Note=When posting images you can save them to have a evidence of how Marie is doing as time goes by and to preserve it for the archieves.

https://imageshack.com/a/img539/4682/LrnwoZ.gif

I always do that. Anyway Marie has that look as if it it about to RI.





AVN and Visible Loops

[tolakram]

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-180&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 45kts.

EP, 13, 2014082212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1018W, 45, 1002, TS

[CrazyC83]

Is there a microwave image available? I wonder if an eye is trying to form in there...

[Ntxw]

Early visible looks great. I'm wondering too if an eye is trying to form, I have little doubt this is going to be a cane sometime later today.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks at least 45-50 knts to me this morning.

[tolakram]

Live visible, just getting light.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-180&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Marie is already intensifying quickly this morning, as evidenced by expanding outflow, numerous spiral bands, and an expanding central dense overcast over the center. Once an inner core is fully established (tonight?), the storm should start a period of rapid intensification given low shear, exceptionally warm ocean temperatures, plenty of mid-level moisture, and increasing ocean heat content. At this point, I'm forecasting a 130kt/150mph peak, give or take 10 mph.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not surprised at ALL. Reminds me of Haiyan when it was about to enter rapid intensification, that it had very impressive outflow from the west and had superb banding features. Has a shot on surpassing Amanda's intensity, but may definitely be a category 4 or higher if the basis is the model forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

Marie is already intensifying quickly this morning, as evidenced by expanding outflow, numerous spiral bands, and an expanding central dense overcast over the center. Once an inner core is fully established (tonight?), the storm should start a period of rapid intensification given low shear, exceptionally warm ocean temperatures, plenty of mid-level moisture, and increasing ocean heat content. At this point, I'm forecasting a 130kt/150mph peak, give or take 10 mph.

It's IMO been Ring since around 3z last night. This could be anywhere from 115-160 knts IMO. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow.




BTW, thank you tolakram for the link you shared for the upload to be possible.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Something can be seen (a circular thing) at the center of the storm, and may be a sign that an eye will pop out; it should be a hurricane as I wake up, and a major tomorrow night (morning PDT/EDT). My range for Marie's peak intensity is anywhere from 125-155 knots (145-185 mph; 230-295 km/h), and I am certain it will not go beyond or below that range. Early consistency for a high intensity estimate, favorable conditions and environment are factors of my forecast for its peak intensity.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And at TAU 120, the NHC track shows Marie and Karina fairly close to each other, perhaps the latter absorbed by the former?