ATL: BERTHA - Models

[Blown Away]

Delete

[adam0983]

The GFS Models this morning look to be split with two solutions. The first solution is the system goes out to sea and the second solution shows the storm getting close to Florida. What factors are influencing both solutions?

[Jevo]

12z GFS +24



12z GFS +48



12z GFS +78

[Jevo]

12z GFS +96



12z GFS +120

[Alyono]

12Z weaker than 0Z. Trend continues toward a weaker system

definitely not thinking an Allen, lol. Maybe an Emily from 2011 or a Cindy from 1993

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Way west than 06z... Begins to weaken as it passes just N of the NE Caribbean...

[NDG]

12z GFS coming along more and more with the Euro with strength and track which means at a weak state near the Bahamas near day 7, but is hard to believe that the system could be so weak near the Bahamas where the atmosphere has had the best conditions in the Atlantic Basin so far this summer.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +180 Dissipates and just hangs around the Bahamas for a few days

[gatorcane]

The GFS has trended quite a bit west in the long-range with this system the last 48 hours though it is showing a weaker system. It also shows the system bending WNW toward the SE Bahamas being driven by a Bermuda High building in that was nonexistent in the runs from 48 hours ago. This trend is a little discomforting for those of us in South Florida but fortunately the GFS keeps the system weak...

[Blown Away]

The GFS has trended quite a bit west in the long-range with this system the last 48 hours though it is showing a weaker system. It also shows the system bending WNW toward the SE Bahamas being driven by a Bermuda High building in that was nonexistent in the runs from 48 hours ago. This trend is a little discomforting for those of us in South Florida but fortunately the GFS keeps the system weak...

Hours 162 -192 it meanders very close to the NW Bahamas before the remnants get recurved...

[KWT]

Yeah a bend back west, but I think that is probably down to the fact the GFS destroys it, I'm sure a stronger storm would have lifted northwards long before that point on this run.

Not sure why it is weakening, but clearly its something which most of the models are picking up.

[CrazyC83]

Where is it less favorable, the southern route or the northern route? (i.e. more shear or dry air)

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS has trended quite a bit west in the long-range with this system from yesterday though it is showing a weaker system. It also shows the system bending WNW toward the SE Bahamas being driven by a Bermuda High building in that was nonexistent in the runs from yesterday and the day before. This trend is a little discomforting for those of us in South Florida but fortunately the GFS keeps the system weak...

The only favorable condition going for it in the west Atlantic is the warmer than average SST's which aren't even enough to save it.

[gatorcane]

Yeah a bend back west, but I think that is probably down to the fact the GFS destroys it, I'm sure a stronger storm would have lifted northwards long before that point on this run.

Not sure why it is weakening, but clearly its something which most of the models are picking up.

Would you say the ECMWF showing it staying quite weak and tracking more west is verifying? Seems that way to me...

Yet again, seems the GFS has tried to overstrengthen an bring a system more NW in the MDR too soon.

[KWT]

Where is it less favorable, the southern route or the northern route? (i.e. more shear or dry air)

If it keeps up the current forward speed, I'd say the south as there will be some high shear in the Caribbean (though it does wind down quite alot eventually) but neither route is great between the 3-7 day period.

As for the ECM, still too early to tell, the system has got a decent circulation. I wouldn't be shocked if it hits one of the bigger Caribbean islands and dies when it does so. (As Alyono pointed out, maybe like a Cindy 1993 type system).

[Alyono]

check ur PMs, KWT... not sure who you were trying to address in your post, but you most certainly dont have my name right

[gatorcane]

Looking at the 500MB steering a week from now, the NAVGEM is insisting as it has for the past few days that ridging will build SW into the SW Atlantic with the center of the ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda which could prevent a recurve of 93L even if it were a deeper system:



This is different than the GFS which doesn't show the center of the ridge so far SW which would allow a deeper system to recurve off the SE U.S coast.


So still a lot of uncertainly in the long-range track of 93L.

Note: NAVGEM is the only global model that is showing this configuration so would consider it an outlier at this time but still can't be ruled out. Note also the NAVGEM kills off 93L completely in the Eastern Caribbean.

[Alyono]

EC actually has a weak TS now

[cycloneye]

EC actually has a weak TS now

What is the track?

[Alyono]

tracks through the Leewards