WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Officially it also has intensified, but not yet upgraded to a Severe tropical storm.

TS 1411 (HALONG)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 29 July 2014

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00'(13.0°)
E147°30'(147.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

[euro6208]

The top image is about an hour ago and the bottom is the latest. I'm thinking quick intensification is going on as the eye has rapidly consolidated...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291301
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112014
1100 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HALONG CONTINUING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CHST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 147.0E

ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1030 PM CHST...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HALONG WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
147.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 6
MPH. TROPICAL STORM HALONG IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
HALONG IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM HALONG WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The top image is about an hour ago and the bottom is the latest. I'm thinking quick intensification is going on as the eye has rapidly consolidated...

When was the last time you had a typhoon 50 nm or nearer to your place? And how strong was it?

[euro6208]

The top image is about an hour ago and the bottom is the latest. I'm thinking quick intensification is going on as the eye has rapidly consolidated...

When was the last time you had a typhoon 50 nm or nearer to your place? And how strong was it?

I believe last ones were Chataan and Pongsona in 2002... Chataan passed over Northern Guam with 90 knots winds (1 min) and Pongsona in December, a Category 4 monster with winds of 130 knots...Since then, we have been spared by many powerful typhoons...

[Equilibrium]

Its no real shock or suprise when it was confrmed Jim Edds was
in Guam to document this storm it was a big hint it was going to be the real deal.

[euro6208]

Its no real shock or suprise when it was confrmed Jim Edds was
in Guam to document this storm it was a big hint it was going to be the real deal.

Is he here?

Halong continues to organized going into DMAX during the next 12 hours...

[euro6208]

AVNO - North of Rota

HWRF - Between Guam and Rota

GFS right over Rota...



Models consensus keeps going up with more than half saying Category 4...

[Equilibrium]

Its no real shock or suprise when it was confrmed Jim Edds was
in Guam to document this storm it was a big hint it was going to be the real deal.

Is he here?

Halong continues to organized going into DMAX during the next 12 hours...

Yep maybe very close to you.

https://explore.delorme.com/textmessage ... a414302965

[euro6208]

Its no real shock or suprise when it was confrmed Jim Edds was
in Guam to document this storm it was a big hint it was going to be the real deal.

Is he here?

Halong continues to organized going into DMAX during the next 12 hours...

Yep maybe very close to you.

https://explore.delorme.com/textmessage ... a414302965

He is staying at the Pacific Bay Hotel in downtown Tumon. I'm in the Northern Part of Guam...

[euro6208]

I'm seeing a slight southwest jog of Halong's eye...

hmm...

[Equilibrium]

eye looks to be about approximately 130 miles due east of Guam on radar atm.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/west-pacific

As of Tuesday morning, EDT, Tropical Depression 11W located about 250 miles east-southeast of Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, strengthened into Tropical Storm Halong. Halong is moving towards the west at 10 mph with highest sustained winds of 55-60 mph.
General movement towards the northwest through midweek will bring Halong into the area of the Mariana Islands just north of Guam. A somewhat favorable environment for development is expected to allow strengthening to a typhoon over the next 12 hours as it approaches Guam. Heavy rain of 4-8 inches and typhoon-force winds with gusts between 90-100 mph are forecast for Guam on Tuesday night through Wednesday night, local time. Consequently, flooding, scattered power outages and some structural damage is possible. Beyond midweek, it is unclear whether development will continue, as a significant increase in vertical wind shear will be possible. Halong will continue on a northwestward track through the end of the week.

[euro6208]

000
FPMY50 PGUM 291110
ZFPMY

ZONE FORECAST FOR GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
910 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

GUZ001-292100-
GUAM-
910 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOWS NEAR 78.
.WEDNESDAY...DAMAGING WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY WITH
OCCASIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS AROUND 83.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DAMAGING WINDS. WEST WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH.
CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 77.
.THURSDAY...DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH. CLOUDY
WITH NUMEROUS LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS AROUND 84.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH DECREASING
TO 15 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 79.
.FRIDAY...BREEZY. PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

GUZ002-292100-
ROTA-
910 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TYPHOON WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOWS NEAR 78.
.WEDNESDAY...DAMAGING WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH
BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 82.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TYPHOON FORCE WINDS. NORTH WINDS 65 TO 75 MPH
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 77.
.THURSDAY...DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTH WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH DECREASING
TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 83.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. LOWS AROUND 79.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

GUZ003-004-292100-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
910 PM CHST TUE JUL 29 2014

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS NEAR 78.
.WEDNESDAY...DAMAGING WINDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY WITH
OCCASIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS AROUND 82.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DAMAGING WINDS. EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH.
CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 77.
.THURSDAY...DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH. CLOUDY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND
83.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH BECOMING
SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS NEAR 79.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

[euro6208]

Interesting discussion from NWS Guam:

24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.4 MB AT ROTA AND 2.1 MB AT ANDERSEN
SUGGEST THAT HALONG WILL END UP TRACKING THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL.
HALONG IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT. FOCUS WAS PLACED
ENTIRELY ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WIND AND WAVES.

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar image

[euro6208]

Although an eye's been evident on radar, latest warning still has Halong as a Tropical storm with winds of 55 knots. Forecast has a typhoon later on today.

[Equilibrium]

Should be starting feel stronger gusts there now when the tail whips around.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 291442
TCUPQ1

TROPICAL STORM HALONG (11W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP112014
1230 AM CHST WED JUL 30 2014

...1230 AM CHST...1430 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 1230 AM CHST...1430 UTC...A DEVELOPING EYE OF TROPICAL STORM
HALONG (11W) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 146.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES
EAST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN ELEVATION OF 14800
FEET. THE APPARENT EYE IS APPROXIMATELY 100% COMPLETE AND
IS 14 MILES IN DIAMETER.

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CHST...1430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 146.5E
ELEVATION...12000 FEET

ABOUT 120 MILES...90 DEGREES...E OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS GOOD.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

I wonder how Rota will fare with Halong. Besides the mountain in the southern part, the island looks relatively flat. Population is 2,500 as of 2010 and their largest village is Songsong surrounded both sides by water...