WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

06z GFS has this deepening to 943 mb over the Western Pacific.

I saw that too...The West Pacific is the hot spot...

Question: Will the total ACE for Genevieve be counted towards the EPAC even though this will peak in the WPAC?

[dexterlabio]

very interesting if we will see Typhoon Genevieve in the Western Pacific.


Are there tropical cyclones from the EPAC that made it to the WPAC keeping the same name? We had some CPAC to WPAC crossover TC's last year, the most notable for me though was Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006...but I don't know if we had an EPAC to WPAC crossover storm...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

very interesting if we will see Typhoon Genevieve in the Western Pacific.


Are there tropical cyclones from the EPAC that made it to the WPAC keeping the same name? We had some CPAC to WPAC crossover TC's last year, the most notable for me though was Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006...but I don't know if we had an EPAC to WPAC crossover storm...

Typhoon John in 1994 entered the WPAC as a category 3 typhoon, after weakening from category 5 status over the CPAC/EPAC.

[galaxy401]

Well this storm is a trooper. I wonder how far this storm can go.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST SAT AUG 02 201

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BROUGHT GENEVIEVE BACK TO LIFE AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A SECOND TIME IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.
A 0719Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ WAS PRESENT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BECOMING INVIGORATED. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS NOT ONLY THAT REINVIGORATED GENEVIEVE HAS DEVELOPED A MUCH
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT ALSO IT APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN VIABLE IN
THE NEAR-TERM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE
FIX AGENCIES SHOW T NUMBERS OF 2.0 AT PHFO AND SAB...WHILE JTWC HAS
A 1.5. IN ADDITION TO THESE DVORAK FIXES...THE 0719Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 30 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THEREFORE...THIS INITIAL ADVISORY WILL INDICATE AN INTENSITY OF 30
KT...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 265 DEGREES / 09 KT.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT... DYNAMICAL AND
CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE AIDS SHOW A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THESE
AIDS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GUIDANCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE
GENEVIEVE MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. ASSUMING IT IS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FORECAST MODELS...SUCH AS SHIPS...APPEAR TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...
SINCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ASSUMED TO BE LOW AND THE SSTS ARE
GREATER THAN 27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES GENEVIEVE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AFTER THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.9N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 11.2N 159.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.8N 162.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 11.0N 164.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 12.5N 169.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 14.5N 175.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 178.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[dexterlabio]

Ok I just got the answer to my question...the last EPAC tropical cyclone that reached WPAC is John in 1994. It's a very rare event seeing an EPAC storm crossing the WPAC...

[Yellow Evan]

Ok I just got the answer to my question...the last EPAC tropical cyclone that reached WPAC is John in 1994. It's a very rare event seeing an EPAC storm crossing the WPAC...

Jimena 03.

Dora 99.

If you wanna be technical, EPAC arguably goes to the dateline.

[galaxy401]

Tropical Storm now.

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 02 2014

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES SHOW T
NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM SAB AND JTWC AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. BASED ON ITS
CURRENT SATELLITE REPRESENTATION...GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. UW-CIMSS INDICATES VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM WHILE SHIPS INDICATES ABOUT 7 KT.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING ALONG SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING DAYS
3 THROUGH 5...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE AS IT WILL BE
NEAR THE WEST END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT FOLLOWS DOWN THE CENTER
OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH ALSO FOLLOWS ALONG WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT GENEVIEVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR WILL BE NEAR THE
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE RELAXING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SST
VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 28C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS MOST MODEL TRENDS AND
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS GENEVIEVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 60 KT AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 10.6N 157.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 10.1N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 9.6N 162.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 9.2N 164.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 9.4N 166.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 11.0N 172.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 12.9N 177.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 14.8N 176.7E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

Could reach hurricane/typhoon strength. This storm interests me more than Bertha and even Iselle.

[CrazyC83]

06z GFS has this deepening to 943 mb over the Western Pacific.

I saw that too...The West Pacific is the hot spot...

Question: Will the total ACE for Genevieve be counted towards the EPAC even though this will peak in the WPAC?

No it would not count towards the EPAC once past 180.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If this would cross the IDL, it may be a typhoon, as the SSTs are currently warm and the shear is also very favorably low.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW!! STEADY INTENSIFICATION over the WPAC, making it stronger than how it was in the EPAC.

INIT 02/2100Z 10.6N 157.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 10.1N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 9.6N 162.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 9.2N 164.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 9.4N 166.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 11.0N 172.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 12.9N 177.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 14.8N 176.7E 60 KT 70 MPH

Hope it would not be like Pewa last year.

[Yellow Evan]

If this would cross the IDL, it may be a typhoon, as the SSTs are currently warm and the shear is also very favorably low.

Right now, there is some shear actually. Should decrease though.

[supercane4867]

HWRF looks awesome

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF looks awesome

HWRF does not normally run past the dateline, so they tend to get super aggressive with these types of storms.

[galaxy401]

Just a reminder to the mods if they can change the title since Genevieve is a tropical storm now.

[CrazyC83]

I remember with Ioke the HWRF and GFDL were forecasting a hyper-intense, Haiyan-like storm once over the dateline, due to physical limitations...

[Yellow Evan]

I remember with Ioke the HWRF and GFDL were forecasting a hyper-intense, Haiyan-like storm once over the dateline, due to physical limitations...

HWRF wasn't around in 2006.



Here was one GFDL run from Ioke.

[dexterlabio]

Jimena 03.

Dora 99.

If you wanna be technical, EPAC arguably goes to the dateline.

JMA didn't issue warnings on Jimena and treated it as a degenerated low so I didn't count it. JTWC issued warnings on Jimena as a weak TS or TD though.

[hurricanes1234]

Back down to a depression.

Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE Advisory Number 24
Issued at 500 PM HST SAT AUG 02 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 9.8N 158.8W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
Maximum sustained winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H
Present movement: WSW or 255 degrees AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[galaxy401]

Well so much for requesting to change the title to a tropical storm.

Can this storm just make up its mind?