WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[stormcruisin]

Atm the storm is closing in on Guam not the Philippines maybe cross that bridge if it does track there.

[ManilaTC]

Yeah, it and moving further it shows that it will slam Taiwan by Friday afternoon.

[euro6208]

Nasty area of vicious convection just east of Guam and Rota and closing in.

[stormcruisin]

**Storm status update**
As of 11 Jul 14 / 1900L, Andersen AFB is in TCCOR 1-C.

The movement of the storm has slowed pushing back the onset of sustained 50kt winds, to 0500L. The max winds expected are still expected to be 55kts sustained,gusting to 70kts.

1. At 11/16L Tropical Storm 09W was located at 12.6° North and 147.6° East, approximately 100 nautical miles East Southeast of Andersen AFB. Current movement is to the Northwest at 12 knots.

2. Tropical Storm 09W had winds gusting to 45 knots near its center and was moving to the Northwest at 12 knots. The closest point of approach (CPA) is forecast to be 9 nautical miles at 11/21Z. If Tropical Storm 09W continues to move as forecast, damaging winds of 50 knots or greater (sustained) are anticipated to occur from 11/2000Z to 11/2300Z. The strongest winds on Guam are expected to be sustained at 55 knots with 61 knot gusts at 11/2000Z.

3. Conditions expected at Andersen AFB over the next 24 hours: Scattered rainshowers with isolated thunderstorms, winds 55 knots with gusts up to 70 knots, crosswinds (including gusts) 40 knots. 48 hours: Scattered rainshowers with isolated thunderstorms, winds 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, crosswinds 15 knots. 72 hours: Isolated rainshowers with isolated thunderstorms, winds 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, crosswinds 0 knots. 3-5 inches of rain are expected over the next 24-72 hours.

4. Stay alert for future changes in Tropical Cyclone Conditions. The next update will be 12 Jul 14 / 0100L or sooner if conditions warrant.

[cycloneye]

There is some shear affecting it as the LLC is to the east of the big mass although there is now convection building over it as I type this.

[stormcruisin]

looks more symmetrical now on sat-pic and trying to get organised.

[ManilaTC]

Wow, model ensemble in good agreement.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 111200
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 09W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 09W MAINTAINING MINIMAL INTENSITY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ON THE RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE AS
TROPICAL STORM 09W APPROACHES.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN
AND THE MARIANAS WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GUAM...ROTA AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0N...LONGITUDE 148.1E...OR ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF
GUAM. AT 700 PM CHST...STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM 09W HAS PAUSED IN ITS STRENGTHENING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE
PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY ON GUAM AND ROTA. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. THE GOVERNOR OF GUAM
DECLARED TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 1 AS OF 800 PM CHST.

FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS
RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-002-PMZ151-152-112000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
1000 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A POORLY CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURE...LEAVE IT FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30
AND 40 MPH. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH AS 09W
PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT TO BETWEEN
11 AND 14 FEET. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS AT 6:15 AM.


...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-112000-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
1000 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS AT 6:17 AM.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS/EDSON

[euro6208]

Very large area of very heavy rains, 35 and over on the radar velocity, about to reach Guam in less than 2 hours or earlier.

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

09W NINE 140711 1200 13.0N 146.1E WPAC 35 996

[stormcruisin]

TROPICAL STORM 09W UPDATE: New forecast shows strongest winds now expected at 10 a.m. SATURDAY



JIC News Release No. 15

July 11, 2014, 10p.m.



Tropical Storm 09W’s closest point of approach is expected to be around mid-morning Saturday. NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Chip Guard says the change in forecast is based on a re-evaluation of the storm’s center.



This release is based on the latest forecast information available. Please remember that weather forecasts can change, so updates will be provided from the Joint Information Center whenever the latest data is released. Everything about the storm, including its track motion, strength, and speed can change.



There is a chance the storm may take a more northward track, which would reduce its impact on Guam. The next advisory from the NWS and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center will be released around 2 a.m.



Here is what you need to know:



1. Worst conditions are expected Saturday morning. Damaging winds of approximately 39 mph are expected around 6 a.m. Saturday. Destructive winds of approximately 58 mph are expected around 10 a.m. Saturday.

2. The tropical storm is moving West-northwest at 15 mph.

3. Maximum wind near the center of the storm is around 40 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph.

4. NWS expects around 2-4 inches of rain during the passage of the tropical storm

5. The storm will bring strong rip currents, in coastal waters and some flooding to low-lying coastal areas

6. Chip Guard from NWS expects the following damage as a result of the storm: debris from dead tree limbs, some damage to substandard homes, the possibility of tin roofing becoming airborne, a few secondary power lines blown down, and damage to signs and canopies.

[Alyono]

This thing is BARELY even a TD. Center looks as if it could open up at any time given the shear

[euro6208]

+35mm on the radar velocity just off the coast of northeastern Guam.

[ManilaTC]

Correct me if I am wrong guys but the last few radar animations are pointing to that part i encircled in Red to be the LLCC or perhaps its just a Midlevel center.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Still no upgrade by JMA as shear continues to displace the LLCC to the east.

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 11 July 2014
<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°25'(12.4°)
E146°05'(146.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°05'(13.1°)
E141°55'(141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Alyono]

clear MLC. On sat, what is left of the LLC is east of the main area of convection

[stormcruisin]

Just saying imo t don't look that bad.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like a weak tropical depression, and nothing really LIKE a tropical storm. Why did the JTWC upgrade 09W?

But as it moves WNW, the shear would decrease, increase a bit and for the rest of 09W's lifespan before landfalling over the PH as decreasing. OHC and SSTs over the area is very high which can help in the intensification process.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just saying imo t don't look that bad.

It is clearly disorganized and has the center displaced to the East of the system. It will not yet intensify much in the next 12 hours because of some shear from the east, but may later intensify faster and further to a typhoon (in the JTWC forecast).

[stormcruisin]

12z Best Track:

09W NINE 140711 1200 13.0N 146.1E WPAC 35 996

Whats why it was upgraded. Dont think that blob to the east is the centre this is a midgit system and centre placement and intensity are always questionable don't look like a llcc about to crack open to me just saying but iam not a Pro met so i guess we will see.