EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Tiny core in a very favorable area. Probably we could see a rapid intensification within the next 24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Amanda better hurry and intensify as she will likely meet her demise in 48-72 hours due to cooler sst's just like mostly every other epac storm.

48-72 hours is plenty of time for decent 20-30 knt deepening.

[stormkite]

SST

[CrazyC83]

That inner core pass seems to make 50 kt a reasonable estimate.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Storm Amanda is becoming very compact as time progresses. This may help it take on a quicker rate of intensification.

[stormkite]

01E AMANDA 140524 0600 11.3N 109.4W EPAC 50 997

My cash is on this will be captured by the trough and move towards the coast.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

What a lovely, harmless little storm.

[hurricanes1234]

Based on the latest frame, I'd personally say that it looks to be at least 65 knots by now. Very impressive system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What's the current Dvorak estimate now? Please include the raw estimate.

[Extratropical94]

SSD-ADT: Dvorak estimate at 3.5, raw at 3.6
2014MAY24 113000 3.5 997.5 55.0 3.5 3.6 3.6

CIMSS-ADT:

Code: Select all

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.9 / 992.2mb/ 63.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.9     4.1     4.1


[xtyphooncyclonex]

SSD-ADT: Dvorak estimate at 3.5, raw at 3.6
2014MAY24 113000 3.5 997.5 55.0 3.5 3.6 3.6

CIMSS-ADT:

Code: Select all

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.9 / 992.2mb/ 63.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.9     4.1     4.1


Thanks, extratropical. This means that Amanda could possibly very shy of hurricane strength. This is the most impressive intensification I have ever encountered this year.

[stormkite]

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Saturday, May 24, 2014 6:00 Z

Location at the time:
704 statue miles (1,133 km) to the SSW (203°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
50 knots (~58 mph | 26 m/s | 93 km/h)

Gusts:
60 knots (~69 mph | 31 m/s | 111 km/h)

Pressure:
997 mb (29.44 inHg | 997 hPa)

Coordinates:
11.3N 109.4W

Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System.


http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/mode ... 4&storm=01

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...AMANDA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 109.6W
ABOUT 630 MI...1020 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

[WeatherGuesser]

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6
hours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense
overcast and increasing outer convective banding. Satellite
intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB. In
addition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are
near 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76
kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and
this could be conservative.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04. There is little change to
the track forecast or the track forecast reasoning. Amanda is
moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is
shown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration
expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east
and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west. The new
forecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the
previous track.

The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,
with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical
wind shear environment. The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State
Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening. Based on
this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for
24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more
than currently forecast. After 48 hours, a combination of
increasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to
rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger
than the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows
a faster weakening than the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 11.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 11.9N 110.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.2N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 12.7N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[RL3AO]

Starting to see a hint of warming in the center suggesting an eye is developing. Can't wait to see visible. I'd guess we have a 65 to 70 kt hurricane right now.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to hurricane at 65kts

EP, 01, 2014052412, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1097W, 65, 989, HU

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hurricane Amanda. This is just impressive and astonishing. Not surprised if if becomes a major anytime today or tomorrow (Philippines). If SSTs warm even, more, then we will see another rapid explosion. This is the most amazing this year as of May 2014.

Corrected a typo, wipe, by 10:32 PM PHT May 24 2014

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane Amanda. This is just impressive and astonishing. Not surprised if if becomes a major anytime today or tomorrow (Philippines). If SSTs warm even, more, then wipe will see another rapid explosion. This is the most amazing this year as of May 2014.

I think Ita is more amazing than Amanda honestly.

This is exciting, yes, but truly impressive, no.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hurricane Amanda. This is just impressive and astonishing. Not surprised if if becomes a major anytime today or tomorrow (Philippines). If SSTs warm even, more, then wipe will see another rapid explosion. This is the most amazing this year as of May 2014.

I think Ita is more amazing than Amanda honestly.

This is exciting, yes, but truly impressive, no.

Not yet truly impressive. I meant that no other storm this year in the north Hemisphere intensified this rapidly.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Amanda is rapidly intensifying this morning...has likely been a hurricane for the past few hours.