ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Sanibel · #1161 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:47 pm

Small hot tower bursting over the island.

#1162 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:59 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
700 PM AST WED OCT 17 2014

...700 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LASHING BERMUDA...

DURING THE PAST FEW MINUTES...THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SHIP IN THE BERMUDA HARBOR REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH...158 KM/H AND A GUST TO 127 MPH...204
KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 88 MPH...142 KM/H AND A GUST TO 125 MPH...202
KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST.
DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 025 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

floridasun78 · #1163 Postby **floridasun78** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:00 pm

i notice no Bryan Norcross doing hurr cast on twc

#1164 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:00 pm

It sounds like Category 1-2 conditions are occurring on the island. If there are still Category 3 conditions, they would be in a VERY small area.

TheAustinMan · #1165 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:05 pm

Certainly a very bad time for an intense cell to blow up over Bermuda...

#1166 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:06 pm

The western part of Bermuda is right under that new intense cell. They are likely seeing Cat 2 conditions.

tropicwatch · #1167 Postby **tropicwatch** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:07 pm

I think Bermuda is probably getting the worst Gonzalo has to offer.

#1168 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:09 pm

Agreed. I'm thinking the landfall (or at least current) intensity is 90-95 kt, although that may be increased if additional data comes in. Don't be fooled though, Category 2 is still extremely dangerous...

#1169 Postby **JtSmarts** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed. I'm thinking the landfall (or at least current) intensity is 90-95 kt, although that may be increased if additional data comes in. Don't be fooled though, Category 2 is still extremely dangerous...

I agree, I was looking back at reports during Fabian and it seems the reported sustained winds were a bit higher.

#1170 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:14 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed. I'm thinking the landfall (or at least current) intensity is 90-95 kt, although that may be increased if additional data comes in. Don't be fooled though, Category 2 is still extremely dangerous...

I agree, I was looking back at reports during Fabian and it seems the reported sustained winds were a bit higher.

During Fabian:

* Bermuda Airport: Failed at 82 mph in eyewall. Likely was around 90-100 mph at ground level.

* Elevated stations: Most had sustained winds around 120 mph, and gusts around 150 mph.

#1171 Postby **NDG** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:21 pm

NDG wrote:92 mph wind gusts at a personal wx station in Bermuda so far.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... O3#history

Well, I guess this personal wx station that I was following live lost power, has not reported in over 30 minutes.

#1172 Postby **chrisjslucia** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:28 pm

NDG wrote:
NDG wrote:92 mph wind gusts at a personal wx station in Bermuda so far.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... O3#history

Well, I guess this personal wx station that I was following live lost power, has not reported in over 30 minutes.

Report posted on Storm Carib says 80% of island without power as of a few minutes ago, so I suspect that is a good guess!

#1173 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:30 pm

Big hot tower right over Bermuda right now. That could enhance the winds.

#1174 Postby **NDG** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:34 pm

I guess the eye will indeed go over the Island as wind direction is from ESE across the island.

#1175 Postby **redneck51** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:34 pm

Amazing that the webcam in the port is still working. It's static on the flag pole now and the pole is moving less now the eye is close.

Latest radar:

tropicwatch · #1176 Postby **tropicwatch** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:36 pm

I'm surprised the radar has stayed up too.

#1177 Postby **NDG** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:38 pm

St Davis last report of wind gust of 113 knots.

#1178 Postby **chrisjslucia** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:39 pm

This is a link to a loop of today's Bermuda radar = from morning until about 30 minutes ago:

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/gonzalo14/Gonzalo_17Oct14_bermuda_short.gif

#1179 Postby **NDG** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:40 pm

Last few minutes live feed sound from the Port has gotten really loud.

#1180 Postby **NDG** » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:54 pm

St Davis now reporting sustained wind of 94 mph.

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