ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

I wonder of it will be a TS by the end of the day? Hmm

[Evil Jeremy]

With the ECMWF and GFS ensembles all over SFL, I smell Debby 2.0 with the NHC track.

[TheStormExpert]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

[Alyono]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

the cone is solely based upon climatology. No model guidance is included in the cone

[northjaxpro]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

Now, this could change in time and NHC may shift the cone a bit to the left(west) if the model divergence continues. Remember, because of the model spread that still exists, this is a low confidence forecast by NHC, which they admitted themselves in their forecast discussion.

[SouthFLTropics]

With the ECMWF and GFS ensembles all over SFL, I smell Debby 2.0 with the NHC track.

Don't forget that there was another Debby in 2000 that was in this same area that had South Florida on alert and then decided to take a nose dive into Cuba and die. Seems Debby is Cristobal's psycho cousin.

[abajan]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

They are in the cone but right on the very edge.

[tropicwatch]

TD 4 still having some wind shear to contend with:



I just noticed you can see the split between the high pressure and low pressure distinctly north of TD 4

[WeatherGuesser]

I'd be more concerned about the Carolinas based on the current cone.

[SouthFLTropics]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

They are in the cone but right on the very edge.

I don't think I'm in the cone yet but if I look out my window I can see the edge of it. It's a pretty white color!

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just a quick three day intensity forecast for ya'll.

00 Hours, 5pm Saturday: 35mph
12 Hours, 5am Sunday: 35mph
24 Hours, 5pm Sunday: 45mph
48 Hours, 5pm Monday: 60mph
72 Hours, 5pm Tuesday: 70mph

[toad strangler]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

They are in the cone but right on the very edge.

I don't think I'm in the cone yet but if I look out my window I can see the edge of it. It's a pretty white color!

lol, hear ya. I'm in PSL right with ya. Interesting that true SFL is nowhere near the cone given the many scenarios that multiple models are spitting out.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the cone barely touches the Florida coast from Fort Pierce up to Cape Canaveral, but it actually does not include Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties at this time, if you look very closely at the outline of the cone in the diagram.

[Steve]

I really like what the NHC has out there for the initial discussion. Only real differences are they have it a hair faster, a hair further east and maybe slightly weaker than what I think. Otherwise, great and sort of expected analysis.

[psyclone]

This has to be the biggest I've seen the cone since TS Debby, still somewhat suprised that at least extreme coastal parts of Florida aren't in the cone.

the cone is solely based upon climatology. No model guidance is included in the cone

the cone is not based on climo but rather previous average error ( I believe they use preceding 5 years so it has been getting smaller over time as the NHC gets better with track progs)

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd be more concerned about the Carolinas based on the current cone.

Compare the cone to the models, and you see that there's a chance the cone might be wrong. Carolinas need to look out, but I'm more concerned for the short term future of the storm.

[GCANE]

With the anticyclone staying nicely over the top of this and the ULL moving away to the west, I am looking for the fireworks to begin at DMAX - sunrise, Sunday morning.

Hot towers should get this to spin up fast.

[northjaxpro]

WeatherGuesser wrote:

I'd be more concerned about the Carolinas based on the current cone
________________________________

Well, until this tropical cyclone safely turns out to sea, if it does, everyone along the SE U.S. Atlantic coast from the FL Straits up to the NC Outer Banks should be paying attention from here on out.

[artist]

Note - the cone represents only where the storm center path could track - not the entire size of the storm. Remember that hazardous weather occurs outside the center of the storm.

[Kingarabian]

Note - the cone represents only where the storm center path could track - not the entire size of the storm. Remember that hazardous weather occurs outside the center of the storm.

Great important point Artist! Hope you're doing well.