EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

You know when NHC calls for a major hurricane in the first advisory then it must be a Cat.5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... .001.shtml

Dora 11 was forecast to be 105 knts on advisory 1. Reached 135 knts.

[CrazyC83]

It will be one to watch for sure...

I agree the initial forecast is likely very conservative and will be adjusted later on.

[supercane4867]

You know when NHC calls for a major hurricane in the first advisory then it must be a Cat.5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... .001.shtml

Dora 11 was forecast to be 105 knts on advisory 1. Reached 135 knts.

It's still arguably Cat.5 though.

BTW ships indicates a 56% chance of 30kt intensification during the next 24 hours. Rick was 60%

[Ntxw]

What we'd give to have recon go into this. Sadly it won't. We need to get some unmanned drones to do the job!

Well on it's way now

[Yellow Evan]

You know when NHC calls for a major hurricane in the first advisory then it must be a Cat.5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... .001.shtml

Dora 11 was forecast to be 105 knts on advisory 1. Reached 135 knts.

It's still arguably Cat.5 though.

BTW ships indicates a 56% chance of 30kt intensification during the next 24 hours. Rick was 60%

Didn't Alvin 13 had a really high RI index?

Dora 11 wasn't a Cat 5 IMO. Max 87, Kiko 83, Olivia 82, Jimena 09, and Amanda 14 all have better cases.

[Yellow Evan]

What we'd give to have recon go into this. Sadly it won't. We need to get some unmanned drones to do the job!

Well on it's way now

if RI continues overnight, we could have a Cat 2 by this time tomorrow. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

if RI continues overnight, we could have a Cat 2 by this time tomorrow. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, this thing is going to get it's act together very quick just based on presentation. I'm getting Rick vibes, though I haven't followed the EPAC much until this year but I do remember following that storm.

[Yellow Evan]

if RI continues overnight, we could have a Cat 2 by this time tomorrow. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, this thing is going to get it's act together very quick just based on presentation. I'm getting Rick vibes, though I haven't followed the EPAC much until this year but I do remember following that storm.

I'm getting Jimena 09 vibes. Operationally, that became a hurricane 12 hours after genesis. No TC can really top that.

[Kingarabian]

I followed Rick all the way. Certainly a Rick vibe.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a image of RICK at the peak?

[supercane4867]

Does anyone has a image of RICK at the peak?

The perfect storm

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone has a image of RICK at the peak?

The perfect storm

It's up there when it comes to best worldwide TC's.

[cycloneye]

Really very impressive.Let,s see if Marie when it peaks rival Rick and other powerful past EPAC TC,s.

[Yellow Evan]

Here were some early on photos of Rick 09





Not a whole lot different from 13E.

[Ntxw]

Eerie. Looking forward to tomorrow, fully expect a hurricane just looks too good.



Fyi, EPAC is about to cross 100 ACE points. 13E/Marie-to-be should add a good 10-20 points which will get it very close to normal for an entire season and match 2002/2009. We're pretty much guaranteed at least a normal season, though above normal is quite likely given what the GFS and other long term guidance have been trying to put out.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd give it a T3.0 now or 45 knts. Pressure I'd put at 994 mbar due to the RI.

[Kingarabian]

Here were some early on photos of Rick 09




Not a whole lot different from 13E.

Yup. I agree 100%.

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone have a hold of Rick's microwave images at its peak?

[supercane4867]

Does anyone have a hold of Rick's microwave images at its peak?

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone have a hold of Rick's microwave images at its peak?

Ill post a bunch of images of both Linda and Rick at peak in a sec.



Here's Linda at gensis



Linda microwave at peak



This is the best I can get for Rick via HURSAT.

Here is my analog (Kiko 83) at birth



Kiko looked somewhat similar as well.