WPAC: RAMMASUN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 110307
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
200 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 0100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.2N 147.8E

ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 0100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.8
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM 09W OVER GUAM AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM 09W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
PM THIS EVENING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Due to coming tropical storm, many businesses are closing early and many fundraisers are canceled. Carnival likely closed today and tomorrow.

[stormcruisin]

yup better to prepare for the worst scenario never know what to expect in the wespac when it comes to RI.

[vrif]

GFS 00Z run has a slightly more westerly track

[euro6208]

People taking this storm seriously. I see massive lines of cars trying to get gas and people stocking up on groceries. I am at work and eerily calm right now just looking out through my window. Calm before the storm.

[euro6208]

Direct hit.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 110647
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 09W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
500 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 09W CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.6N 147.6E

ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.6
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W OVER GUAM SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 09W IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM TONIGHT.

$$

STANKO


000
WTPQ82 PGUM 110633
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
433 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

.....TROPICAL STORM 09W MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
220 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
245 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM 09W IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER GUAM SATURDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS OR BRING THEM INSIDE. CHECK YOUR
GENERATOR AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE FUEL. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

&&

GUZ001-002-PMZ151-152-111500-
/X.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.0001.140711T0633Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
433 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THE GOVERNOR OF GUAM DECLARED TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 2 AT 10 AM.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 MPH AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS AT 6:15 AM.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.


$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-111500-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
433 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS THE STORM PASSES ON SATURDAY. BRIEF
COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH IS AT 6:17 AM.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY AS 09W PASSES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Very cloudy and calm but radar showing a large area of convection slowly moving towards the southern Marianas.

[ManilaTC]

JMA still keeps 09W as a Tropical Depression on its 06z warning.

** WTPQ21 RJTD 110600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 12.2N 147.3E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 12.8N 143.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

** WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 ***

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.2N 147.3E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[stormcruisin]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2014 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 12:44:11 N Lon : 147:15:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.6mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.2 2.0

Center Temp : -24.2C Cloud Region Temp : -40.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 12:55:48 N Lon: 146:15:35 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.2 degrees






Looks to be more convention directly to the east of the low double whammy?

[euro6208]

Remains a 35 knots tropical Storm and closing in but barely any rains and winds now. Very slow at work now I am happy . People are staying home.

Latest forecast has winds of 50 knots tomorrow morning at direct hit but I wouldn't be surprised if this is too low given the favorable environment and small size which could lead to rapid changes in strength.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. Insane southerly difference now compared to before. GFS had this lashing the Babuyan islands, but now at central Luzon. And 110 kt forecast is really really bad for the PH....

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest GFS has this at 125 kts and 937mb before landfall while 931mb while making landfall over North-Central Luzon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Basing the forecast on the environment and steering winds right now, this would be a strong typhoon or even a super, making landfall over Southern Luzon then afterwards towards Metro Manila. After lashing Luzon, the typhoon would turn NW or recurve.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[ManilaTC]

Basing the forecast on the environment and steering winds right now, this would be a strong typhoon or even a super, making landfall over Southern Luzon then afterwards towards Metro Manila. After lashing Luzon, the typhoon would turn NW or recurve.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

Uhm... hehe... ahh ehh...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Basing the forecast on the environment and steering winds right now, this would be a strong typhoon or even a super, making landfall over Southern Luzon then afterwards towards Metro Manila. After lashing Luzon, the typhoon would turn NW or recurve.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

Uhm... hehe... ahh ehh...

Which I hope that scenario won't pan out....

[stormcruisin]

*** TROPICAL STORM 09W UPDATE ***

Machanaonao Elementary Full - Northern Residents seeking shelter should go to Maria Ulloa or Astumbo Elementary instead.

Shelter Update: The Guam Department of Education has confirmed Machanaonao Elementary School can no longer accept families, because it has reached capacity as a designated shelter site. Residents in the north seeking shelter should either go to Maria Ulloa Elementary or Astumbo Elementary Schools.

Residents who live in homes they cannot rely on to keep them safe against heavy winds and rains should start making preparations to move to a designated storm shelter. Residents who live in low-lying or flood-prone areas also should consider moving to a storm shelter or seeking shelter with relatives or friends in safe homes.

Designated storm shelters were open at 4 p.m. today.

Those seeking shelter who do not have a way of getting to a designated storm shelter are advised to contact or visit their village mayor’s office to coordinate transportation services for pick up and drop off. You can find the phone number or email address to your village mayor’s office at the end of this release.

The designated storm shelters are listed below:
They must be expecting this to get bad in GUAM



Northern residents:

Astumbo Elementary School
Maria A. Ulloa Elementary School
Machanaonao Elementary School: FULL
F.B. Leon Guerrero Middle School: CLOSED

Central residents:
George Washington High School

Southern residents:
Talofofo Elementary School
Merizo Martyrs Elementary School

The Emergency Operations Center will be on standby should more shelters need to be opened to accommodate more residents.


*** TROPICAL STORM 09W UPDATE ***

OCEAN NOT SAFE: Stay out of the water!

Guam will see hazardous surf of 12 to 15 feet

Please do not go into our beaches, bays, lagoons, rivers, streams, waterfalls, and even the shoreline. The approaching storm is causing violent waves, surges, and surfs up to 15 feet high - even the best swimmers cannot survive that force of water.


*** TROPICAL STORM 09W UPDATE: GMH Accepting Expectant Mother at 8PM (civilian) ***

For Guam Memorial Hospital (civilian patients)

UPDATE: Women at least 38 weeks pregnant and all high-risk expectant mothers who are six months pregnant or more can now check into the Guam Memorial Hospital at 8 p.m. tonight.

There will be no food services at GMH. Expectant mothers should eat dinner prior to checkin


THERE doing a sensational job with this system .

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ62 PGUM 110914
TCUPQ2

TROPICAL STORM 09W TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP092014
655 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...601 PM CHST...0801 UTC...MTSAT 1KM VISUAL POSITION ESTIMATE...
...EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...

AT 601 PM CHST...0801 UTC...1KM VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
FIVE HOUR ANIMATION BETWEEN 0301 UTC AND 0801 UTC SHOW A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED TO FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) MOVING TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST...320 DEGREES...AT 10KT. AT 0801 UTC THE APPARENT LLCC
WAS APPROXIMATELY 45 MILES EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE SHIELD. VIEW OF
THIS LLCC DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LLCC WEST OF
THIS CIRCULATION UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...NO
OTHER CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN EITHER THE VIS OR IR IMAGERY.

SUMMARY OF 601 PM CHST...0801 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.9N 148.6E
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN VISUAL IMAGERY

ABOUT 265 MILES EAST OF HAGATNA GUAM
ABOUT 255 MILE SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GUAM WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH THE
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR OTHER APPARENT POSITIONS...HOWEVER
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LAST VISUAL POSITION FOR TONIGHT.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 110919
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 09W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092014
800 PM CHST FRI JUL 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 09W MAINTAINING MINIMAL INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.8N 148.1E

ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.1
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 09W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK STILL
BRINGS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 09W OVER GUAM SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 09W IS
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS

[dexterlabio]

06z GFS has the eye of the storm crossing the Batanes and Babuyan Islands in Northern Luzon. And it looks like Taiwan is not out of the woods yet.