Moderator: S2k Moderators
hurricaneCW wrote:I wonder if she could rapidly intensify like Amanda did. I'm loving the structure and the developing core, but it'll take some time due to the dry air getting involved.
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I guess this could be a major. The rate of organization is very impressive. Shear is low and if this remains compact, it would win the battle against dry air.
When Amanda was upgraded to a tropical storm, the forecast was this, slightly weaker than the forecast of Cristina. Here is the peak forecast for Amanda:
72H 26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
Compared to Cristina:
72H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
Thunderstorm activity associated with Cristina has decreased in
coverage and intensity since the evening diurnal convective
minimum. Inner core convection has also become less organized,
and banding is now less defined. A 0348 UTC ASCAT overpass showed
around 30 kt winds, and a blend of satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB is slightly lower than six hours ago. The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the
previous advisory, though this may be a bit generous.
The initial motion estimate is a slow 275/03. The track forecast is
generally straightforward. Cristina is about to move out of a weak
steering environment and move westward under the influence of a
building mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico at a faster
forward speed. By 48 hours...the cyclone is expected to turn west-
northwestward when it reaches the western end of the same mid-level
ridge. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and
the GFS solution but not as far left as the ECMWF.
UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model output indicate light to
moderate northerly shear currently over the cyclone which could be
interrupting further development. However, global models show
Cristina moving into a moist and generally light shear environment
while moving over warm waters during the next couple of days, all of
which should promote intensification to hurricane strength. In
about 48 hours, the cyclone should begin to ingest a pool of drier
and more stable air to the west which should bring an end to any
further strengthening. An even drier and more stable environment,
an increase in southwesterly shear, and marginally warm waters
late in the forecast period should contribute to a weakening trend.
The NHC intensity forecast is below the previous one, close to
the multi-model consensus through 72 hours but near the LGEM beyond
that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 15.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.7N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.4N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014
Inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased during the past
several hours and two overnight ASCAT passes indicate that the
radius of maximum winds has contracted down to about 25 nmi, which
is more than a 50 percent decrease from this time yesterday. The
advisory intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on a blend of
satellite intensity estimates of T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMSS, T2.5/35
kt from TAFB, and T2.0/30 kt from SAB, plus the appearance of a
partial mid-level eye noted in 1237 UTC TRMM microwave imagery.
The initial motion estimate is 275/04 kt. Both the track forecast
and reasoning remain unchanged. Cristina appears to have begun to
move out of a region of weak steering currents, and the cyclone is
expected to move steadily westward along the southern periphery of
a building deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. On
Day 2, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a
faster forward speed as Cristina strengthens and becomes a more
vertically deep system that will be influenced by stronger
deep-layer easterly steering flow. The NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and
follows the consensus model TVCE.
A large nocturnal thunderstorm complex that developed over central
Mexico has ejected a large band of southward-moving cirrus outflow
that appears to have temporarily increased the northerly shear
across Cristina overnight. However, that thunderstorm complex
has dissipated and water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds
indicate that the upper-level shear has abated over the past
several hours. As a result, the environmental shear is forecast by
the SHIPS model to weaken today and continue to decrease through
at least the 72-hour period. This should allow for Cristina to
gradually strengthen despite being embedded within a relatively dry
mid-level moisture environment. By 96 hours and beyond, the cyclone
is forecast to move into a thermodynamically unfavorable
environment, over SSTs cooler than 26C, and encounter increasing
southwesterly shear, a combination that should induce gradual to
possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and follows the multi-model consensus IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.4N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.8N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 19.8N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest
