EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[SeGaBob]

Forecasted peak is now a 100 mph Category 2 with the possibility of it getting stronger than that mentioned in the discussion. Maybe there's a remote chance it could end up as a major hurricane.



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[Yellow Evan]

Forecasted peak is now 100 mph which is a Category 2 with the possibility of it getting stronger than that mentioned in the discussion. Maybe there's a remote chance it could end up as a major hurricane.



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If it did, that'd be 2nd May major in 3 years. And 4th overall. I think there's a little too much mid-level dry air for it to happen personally.

[Steve820]

Wow, really? They're now forecasting a Category 2 out of this thing?! I can't believe we're now looking at a storm with an outside shot at major status this early in the season! Very surprising, honestly.

[stormkite]

I think 90+ knots is where this will peak if anything its getting boring and to predictable.



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[hurricanes1234]

Absolutely amazing. And to think this, what we're seeing now in May, we struggled to see for most of 2013, steadily intensifying storms. There were of course a few exceptions like Raymond and Henriette.

On the note of major hurricane status, I do think there's a remote possibility of that happening. However, I prefer to first wait on it to become a hurricane before I think about that happening. This is really amazing, though.

[Yellow Evan]

Absolutely amazing. And to think this, what we're seeing now in May, we struggled to see for most of 2013, steadily intensifying storms. There were of course a few exceptions like Raymond and Henriette.

On the note of major hurricane status, I do think there's a remote possibility of that happening. However, I prefer to first wait on it to become a hurricane before I think about that happening. This is really amazing, though.

What's so amazing about Amanda? Storms in May are pretty common.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

CIMSS ADT has been creeping up throughout the evening; the latest final value is up to T3.5/55kt. The raw has reached T4.0/65kt.

2014MAY24 023000 3.5 997.6 55.0 3.5 3.7 4.0 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -64.66 -64.96 UNIFRM N/A -0.0 11.19 109.07 FCST GOES15 32.7

Absolutely amazing. And to think this, what we're seeing now in May, we struggled to see for most of 2013, steadily intensifying storms. There were of course a few exceptions like Raymond and Henriette.

On the note of major hurricane status, I do think there's a remote possibility of that happening. However, I prefer to first wait on it to become a hurricane before I think about that happening. This is really amazing, though.

What's so amazing about Amanda? Storms in May are pretty common.

I agree with this. Hurricanes occur in the East Pacific during the month of May commonly. What would be impressive, though, is if Amanda were to reach major hurricane status.

[Kingarabian]

I would say MH status is certainly attainable. A very compact storm (they strengthen rather quickly), has responded well to RI forecasts, and the SHIPS model gives it a nice percentage for even more rapid intensification.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amanda looks amazing. Persistent convection and outflow. I'm not surprised if it intensifies to a hurricane later today (in our time) or at dawn.

[stormkite]

Now its gone though embc process should rapidly intensify.

[Yellow Evan]

I would say MH status is certainly attainable. A very compact storm (they strengthen rather quickly), has responded well to RI forecasts, and the SHIPS model gives it a nice percentage for even more rapid intensification.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Mid-level dry air slightly to its west as well as the fact that Amanda is more of a "banding" type pattern could be slightly problematic towards prevent MH status IMO. It does have a few days to intensify though.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I would say MH status is certainly attainable. A very compact storm (they strengthen rather quickly), has responded well to RI forecasts, and the SHIPS model gives it a nice percentage for even more rapid intensification.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Mid-level dry air slightly to its west as well as the fact that Amanda is more of a "banding" type pattern could be slightly problematic towards prevent MH status IMO. It does have a few days to intensify though.

Dry air means little without appreciable wind shear. Adrian '11 is just one example of this.

[stormkite]

Dry air means little without appreciable wind shear. Adrian '11 is just one example of this.
Agree 100% with that above statement.



Without shear the system will create its own environment.


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[CrazyC83]

Intense May storms there are typically in El Nino years, correct?

[Yellow Evan]

Intense May storms there are typically in El Nino years, correct?

No, 2 out of the 3 May majors were non-El Ninos. El Nino years tend to have late activity starters. Though it's 2002 had a major in May and that was an El Nino event.

[Cunxi Huang]

50kts at 03Z.
And NHC forecasted wind up to 85 kts.

[stormkite]

187
WTPZ41 KNHC 240232
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Amanda has organized quickly over the past few hours. Deep
convection now wraps more than halfway around the estimated center
position, and an AMSR-2 microwave pass a few hours ago showed the
development of a mid-level eye feature. Based on the latest ADT
estimate from UW-CIMSS the initial intensity has been increased to
50 kt. Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems
likely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the
favorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the
next day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or
less for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58
percent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply
upward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. A peak in
intensity is shown at 48 hours, however, it is possible that
Amanda could strengthen more than indicated here. After 48 hours,
the shear will begin to increase ahead of an approaching trough and
the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters, which should
result in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little above most
of the guidance through 24 hours and is close to the IVCN intensity
consensus after that time.

The initial motion estimate is 290/04, as the cyclone continues
to move slowly around the southwestern side of a weakening
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This slow west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn
toward the northwest is shown around 48 hours, with a gradual
northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge
restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches
from the west. The track model guidance has trended somewhat faster
this cycle, especially by day 5, and the official forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. Otherwise, the new NHC track is largely
an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

[euro6208]

Amanda better hurry and intensify as she will likely meet her demise in 48-72 hours due to cooler sst's just like mostly every other epac storm.

[Kingarabian]

I would say MH status is certainly attainable. A very compact storm (they strengthen rather quickly), has responded well to RI forecasts, and the SHIPS model gives it a nice percentage for even more rapid intensification.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Mid-level dry air slightly to its west as well as the fact that Amanda is more of a "banding" type pattern could be slightly problematic towards prevent MH status IMO. It does have a few days to intensify though.

Dry air means little without appreciable wind shear. Adrian '11 is just one example of this.

[img][/img]

Ditto this. Flossie last year, and Daniel the year before are prime examples.

[Kingarabian]

Finally a decent pass:



Inner core is getting there.