#3 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:12 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 65.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 992 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260929Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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