ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE PASSING
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 56 MPH...90 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 983.8 MB...29.05
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 62.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LESLIE SHOULD PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND LESLIE COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41049 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND BUOY DATA IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM NOAA P-3 AND G-IV HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF LESLIE THIS
EVENING. THE STORM CURRENTLY LACKS AN INNER CORE...AS THE RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 75 N MI. IN ADDITION...
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WELL-DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT A LARGE DISTANCE
FROM THE CENTER. DROPSONDE DATA AND SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT
AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3. LESLIE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE WEST OF LESLIE TO BREAK DOWN AS A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR
LESLIE SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA BETWEEN
36-48 HR. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW LESLIE
SLOWING AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A FASTER
MOTION. THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR AND A LITTLE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER THAT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED. ON THE PLUS SIDE...
LESLIE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLD WATER IT HAS UPWELLED...
AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH 72 HR. ON THE MINUS SIDE...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IS LIKELY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE
PEAK INTENSITY IN 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS MODEL AND BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HR...
INCREASING SHEAR AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE
COMPLETE BY 120 HR.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 28.2N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 29.5N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 31.0N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 32.7N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 37.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS LESLIE MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 62.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

LESLIE SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF PERHAPS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER
TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE DISPLACED WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER LOCATION. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT MISSIONS LAST
NIGHT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE TIME BEING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS DRY AIR AND
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS...STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 LESLIE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES WHILE THE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. LESLIE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...
THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THIS REPRESENTS A TREND TOWARD THE LATEST
TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH FOR THIS CYCLE GENERALLY SHOWS MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN LESLIE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRIES TO CUT
OFF EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE NEW NHC TRACK
IS STILL A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 28.1N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 28.9N 62.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 30.3N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 31.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 33.6N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 48.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...LESLIE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 62.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE WEEKEND. A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LESLIE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[yzerfan]

WOCN31 CWHX 081145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:48 AM ADT Saturday
8 September 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Labrador
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical storm Leslie.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Leslie is moving very slowly northward. Still much uncertainty
When and where weather impacts will reach Eastern Canada.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
The Canadian Hurricane Centre continues to monitor the evolution of
Leslie. The storm continues to move very slowly over the colder
water which it has stirred up. The winds are estimated at just below
hurricane force based on hurricane hunter aircraft data from last
night. Leslie should still regain hurricane strength on Sunday as it
intensifies while moving over warmer waters. Most of the computer
models still show a slow northward movement with acceleration early
next week. However - as mentioned and now observed - the computer
models are known to have difficulty simulating these ocean feedback
effects and situations where the atmospheric steering currents are
very weak. Given the latest developments Leslie will likely
strengthen to category 1 - but the storm is quite large with an
extensive area of rainfall, cloud cover and large waves.

In general, the threat of Leslie on Nova Scotia has been decreasing
but still enough to bear watching. The probability of some impact in
Newfoundland is greater, moderate at 40% for the Wednesday to
Thursday time-frame next week. This may seem contradictory to the
official track forecast which depicts the storm center over the
Avalon Peninsula early Thursday. However this position only
represents an average of an unusually broad range. Stay tuned to our
updates for the trend in the track and discussions.

One of The Key weather features that will tell the tale is the
behaviour of a trough of low pressure now approaching from the Great
Lakes. This feature is forecast to slowly intensify and move
southeastward over the weekend. During the early part of next week
the computer models are predicting that the trough will "pick up" the
hurricane and accelerate northward. There could be a front merging
with the storm and drawing moisture northward along it. However, all
this is contingent on the timing of the trough and position of the
tropical storm/hurricane.

Much smaller but more intense hurricane Michael over 2000 kilometres
east of Leslie now, will also move very slowly and is currently not
expected to affect Eastern Canada. Leslie and Michael will draw
closer to each other over the next several days. Since Leslie is
much larger, its possible impact on Michael would likely be to
shear-apart its upper clouds and acellerate it northward away from
Leslie. A true merging of the hurricanes is not expected based on
their differing sizes. But experience with this sort of situation is
limited and we will certainly monitor it.

Moderate surf conditions related to Leslie will persist along
south-facing coastlines of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland throughout
the next several days. If near the water, exercise caution knowing
that wave heights can vary significantly over a span of several
minutes and that rip currents can develop at local beaches.
Incident wave heights near 2 metres (7 feet) may break at the shore
at heights near 3 metres (10 feet).

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue issuing these general
information statements today and Sunday with more detailed track
forecasts possibly beginning early Monday.

Visit http://WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (all in lower
case) for the latest hurricane track map.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA SOON...
...FIRST SQUALLS ALREADY APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 62.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT LESLIE WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATE
THAT OUTER SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
BERMUDA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LESLIE DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE AND MOST OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS
BEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND REPORTED THAT THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55 KNOTS...AND THE PRESSURE HAS
RISEN TO
988 MB. SINCE LESLIE IS STILL FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF LESLIE...AND AS
SOON AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THESE WATERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS WILL INCREASE. LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE
AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHT...REMAINS WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS AND
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 28.6N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 31.2N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 32.8N 61.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 40.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 45.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 47.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...RAINBANDS APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 62.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT LESLIE WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. OUTER SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE ARE GRADUALLY
APPROACHING BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON SUNDAY AS LESLIE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THAT ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT LESLIE WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RADAR FROM BERMUDA SHOWS RAINBANDS GRADUALLY
APPROACHING THAT ISLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
SYMMETRIC AROUND A LARGE CLOUDLESS CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A TRUCK TIRE/DOUGHNUT-TYPE PATTERN. SINCE
THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
INCREASED YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS.
GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PERFECTLY ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS...AND THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WARM
WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS IN A DAY OR SO. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR BY
DAY 4 WHEN LESLIE IS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.

LESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE AND INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED
BY 96 HOURS WHEN LESLIE IS ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
GUIDANCE.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 29.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 32.2N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 36.0N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 44.0N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 46.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 48.0N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...CENTER OF LESLIE CONTINUING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 62.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT LESLIE WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RADAR FROM BERMUDA SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING THAT
ISLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF LESLIE NOW MOVING OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 62.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.
SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH
FASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

LESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KT IN 48 HR. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE
BY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE
WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 30.1N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.3N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.2N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 35.3N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 49.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 51.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...RAINBANDS AFFECTING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 62.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 62.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING STATION ON ST. DAVIDS
ISLAND BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE
IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER A NEW BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND IT IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

AS LESLIE MOVES NORTHWARD IT SHOULD FINALLY LEAVE THE AREA OF COOLER
WATERS CAUSED BY UPWELLING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS
OCCURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR
ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND ISSUES WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT...LESLIE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN STRENGTHENING.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT LESS
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LESLIE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IS PREDICTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT. LESLIE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE
FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD
A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PERIODS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT 72
THROUGH 120 H. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO
MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 32.4N 62.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 34.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 37.5N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 42.0N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 52.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 59.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 61.0N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ON BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH...77 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING STATION ON ST. DAVIDS
ISLAND BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 091432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS LESLIE PASSES TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
CONTINUEDACCERLERATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE
CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA TODAY...
AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT BERMUDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY...BUT
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

LESLIE HAS A VERY BROAD EYE AS EVIDENCED BY BERMUDA RADAR
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWED 40-45 KT WINDS...AND ENHANCED IR DATA SHOWED
SOME INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS SURROUNDING THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SINCE LESLIE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...IT MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COOLER
WATERS IT UPWELLED. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
REGAINING HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BEYOND 48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT LESLIE TO BE QUITE DEEP BUT
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE ATLANTIC. BY DAY 5 THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A
LARGE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF SCANDANAVIA.

LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INTIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/9. AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4 DAYS...THE POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE HIGHER
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 32.0N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 33.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 36.3N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 40.2N 59.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 46.5N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z...MERGED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AT BERMUDA AS THE CENTER
BEGINS TO EDGE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED
ACCERLERATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LESLIE HAS ALREADY MADE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT BERMUDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA
TODAY...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

FXCN31 CWHX 091800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
SUNDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 62.2 W, ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES OR 232 KM EAST OF
BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS (102 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986 MB. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH AT 9 KNOTS (17
KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 09 3.00 PM 32.5N 62.2W 986 55 102
SEP 10 3.00 AM 35.1N 61.4W 984 60 111
SEP 10 3.00 PM 38.3N 59.8W 980 65 120
SEP 11 3.00 AM 42.5N 57.6W 974 65 120
SEP 11 3.00 PM 47.6N 54.8W 972 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.00 AM 52.2N 49.6W 975 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 12 3.00 PM 57.2N 42.5W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 AM 59.8N 31.1W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 PM 60.9N 20.5W 983 55 102 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

CONVECTION REMAINS DEEP AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD NOW OVER WARMER WATER. THE FRONT OF CONCERN IS MOVING OVER
THE GULF STREAM NOW AND THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS AMPLIFYING AS EXPECTED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

FOR THIS PACKAGE WE KEEP TECHNICAL INFORMATION SIMPLE IN FAVOR OF MORE
DETAILED GENERAL AUDIENCE INFORMATION IN THE WOCN31. THE OVERALL
FORECAST RATIONALE IS THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY. A QUICK ASSESSMENT OF
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOWS MORE CONSISTENT EXPECTATION FOR LESLIE'S TRACK
WHICH WOULD BRING ITS CENTRE INTO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY. QPFS ARE SUGGESTING EVENT TOTALS OF 100-150 MM IN THE
MAXIMUM SWATH REGION OVER EASTERN MAINLAND NS AND WESTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM REG MODEL HAS A NEAR-250 MM MAXIMUM BETWEEN
SABLE ISLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA MAINLAND. WE WILL PROVIDE MORE ASSESSMENT
INFORMATION IN THE NEXT PACKAGE.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
09/18Z 180 150 140 160 90 20 80 80 0 0 0 0
10/06Z 190 180 160 170 100 60 90 80 0 0 0 0
10/18Z 220 230 190 200 130 140 95 90 60 90 60 20
11/06Z 230 280 230 280 160 200 120 120 100 120 120 0
11/18Z 240 260 220 300 160 200 160 240 0 120 60 0
12/06Z 250 250 210 300 160 200 160 240 0 100 60 0
12/18Z 260 270 220 240 150 180 140 200 0 0 0 0
13/06Z 260 280 230 240 120 150 100 150 0 0 0 0
13/18Z 270 280 240 230 120 150 100 150 0 0 0 0


END/FOGARTY

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 092033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY PAST BERMUDA...
...WILL HEAD FOR NEWFOUNDLAND NEXT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 62.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

INTERESTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD END OVER BERMUDA SOMETIME
THIS EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT42 KNHC 092033
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.5 AT
18Z...SINCE THEN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT AND THE
BANDING HAS BECOME LESS SOLID. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
50 KT. LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. BOTH THE TROPICAL AND
GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LESLIE WILL BE AT OR AT LEAST NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO NEWFOUNDLAND. AFTER 36
HOURS...SSTS COOL AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...BUT
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF FIELDS...LESLIE WILL BE MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4
DAYS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 33.4N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 35.1N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 38.5N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 44.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 51.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 60.0N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 63.5N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND HEADED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 62.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

INTERESTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED ON BERMUDA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD END OVER BERMUDA SOMETIME
THIS EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND COULD AFFECT
NEWFOUNDLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 61.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND LESLIE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS BY TUESDAY. LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF LESLIE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ERODE
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT AND T3.5/55
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/14. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING. LESLIE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST. BY 24 HOURS...LESLIE IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM
THE WEST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY DAYS 3-4...
LESLIE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
EASTWARD IN THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. ABSORPTION BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY DAY 5 OVER THE NORTH SEA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND ALSO HAS
A BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...AS THE
CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...THE ADDITIONAL
FORWARD SPEED COMPONENT SHOULD INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AT NEARLY
35 KT BY 36 HOURS...THIS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE
HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN BEFORE THE CYCLONE AFFECTS SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
LESLIE WILL TRANSITION INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER
IT MERGES WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 2. LESLIE WILL REMAIN
A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON DAY 5.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OWING TO THE INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED OF LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A HURRICANE WATCH
WILL LIKELY REQUIRED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...INCLUDING THE AVALON PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 34.4N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 36.8N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 41.3N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 47.5N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 54.1N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 62.5N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 62.5N 3.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...LESLIE HEADING FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 61.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONES COVE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND LESLIE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND. LESLIE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT
APPROACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONE PRIMARY BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT
ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. LESLIE HAS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OVER
WARM WATERS AND IN FAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO
STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
WIND FIELD AND LACK OF AN INNER CORE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. LATER TODAY...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LESLIE COULD GAIN STRENGTH FROM BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES. THE NHC FORECAST...THEREFORE...CALLS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOWN...THE CYCLONE COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
BEFORE IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. IT IS AROUND THAT TIME THAT LESLIE
IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KT. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEARING THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD IN STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 35.7N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 44.5N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 51.9N 50.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 58.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 63.0N 20.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN