ATL: INVEST 92L
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 92L
Is for that big low near the Azores.
AL, 92, 2012051112, , BEST, 0, 353N, 311W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051118, , BEST, 0, 339N, 320W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 324W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051206, , BEST, 0, 319N, 318W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 1009, LO
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112742&p=2222503#p2222503
AL, 92, 2012051112, , BEST, 0, 353N, 311W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051118, , BEST, 0, 339N, 320W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 324W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051206, , BEST, 0, 319N, 318W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 1009, LO
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112742&p=2222503#p2222503
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 92L- Models
WHXX01 KWBC 121332
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1332 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120512 1200 120513 0000 120513 1200 120514 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 30.7W 32.9N 30.2W 33.9N 30.2W 34.8N 30.5W
BAMD 32.1N 30.7W 34.7N 29.4W 36.3N 30.1W 37.0N 31.2W
BAMM 32.1N 30.7W 33.9N 29.7W 35.4N 30.2W 36.2N 31.1W
LBAR 32.1N 30.7W 34.1N 28.3W 37.0N 26.6W 39.2N 25.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200 120517 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.1N 31.1W 34.7N 31.8W 34.3N 30.1W 34.5N 26.0W
BAMD 36.8N 32.4W 36.3N 30.9W 39.4N 25.8W 41.1N 21.4W
BAMM 36.2N 32.1W 35.5N 32.5W 36.6N 28.8W 38.0N 24.1W
LBAR 40.9N 24.6W 42.2N 28.5W 40.3N 29.8W 39.3N 21.7W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 32.6N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 175DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 31.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1332 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120512 1200 120513 0000 120513 1200 120514 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 30.7W 32.9N 30.2W 33.9N 30.2W 34.8N 30.5W
BAMD 32.1N 30.7W 34.7N 29.4W 36.3N 30.1W 37.0N 31.2W
BAMM 32.1N 30.7W 33.9N 29.7W 35.4N 30.2W 36.2N 31.1W
LBAR 32.1N 30.7W 34.1N 28.3W 37.0N 26.6W 39.2N 25.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200 120517 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.1N 31.1W 34.7N 31.8W 34.3N 30.1W 34.5N 26.0W
BAMD 36.8N 32.4W 36.3N 30.9W 39.4N 25.8W 41.1N 21.4W
BAMM 36.2N 32.1W 35.5N 32.5W 36.6N 28.8W 38.0N 24.1W
LBAR 40.9N 24.6W 42.2N 28.5W 40.3N 29.8W 39.3N 21.7W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 32.6N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 175DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 31.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
It looks fairly good at this time.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Maybe is time for NHC to issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Redux of Grace/Vince?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
The infamous eye-like feature.
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M a r k
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Great circulation.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
Non Tropical now,but GFS has it transition to warm core later.
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Re:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Eye?
Cyclone, would NC even bother to upgrade?
I did not say it was an eye. Eye-like feature is something often referred to when something looks like an eye but is probably not.
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M a r k
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- Hurricanehink
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Re:
Hurricanehink wrote:I wish the NHC would at least put out an STWO. Not so much for our benefit, but to warn ships of the danger of this small, but well-organized and intensifying system.
The TAFB has been warning for 15-17 foot waves for a couple of days now.
BTW, just so I am not making a double post, here is my latest blog post:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... is-coming/
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- P.K.
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Re:
Hurricanehink wrote:I wish the NHC would at least put out an STWO. Not so much for our benefit, but to warn ships of the danger of this small, but well-organized and intensifying system.
Meteo-France did already mention this low in their last bulletins.
WONT50 LFPW 120740
A
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 189 , SATURDAY 12 MAY 2012 AT 0735 UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 12 AT 00 UTC
HIGH 1042 50N16W, MOVING EAST A, EXPECTED 1033 50N07W BY 13/12 UTC,
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDED TO WEST.
THUNDERY LOW 1016 33N32W, SLOW-MOVING AND DEEPENING, EXPECTED 1011
34N31W BY 13/12 UTC.
FINISTERRE CONTINUING TO 13/00 UTC. NORTHEAST, LOCALLY 8 NEAR CAPE.
GUSTS.
ACORES : CONTINUING TO 12/18 UTC. NORTHEASTERLY LOCALLY 8 IN WEST.
GUSTS. CADIZ, GIBRALTAR STRAIT : CONTINUING TO 12/21 UTC. EAST 8 IN
AND LEEWARD STRAIT. SEVERE GUSTS.=
Also (I've removed most of the forecast areas here):
FQNT50 LFPW 120744
A
SECURITE
Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Saturday 12 May 2012 at 1015 UTC.
- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.
Part 1 : WARNING : 189
Part 2 : General synopsis, Saturday 12 at 00 UTC
Thundery low 1016 33N32W, slow-moving and deepening, expected
1011 34N31W by 13/12 UTC.
High 1042 50N16W, moving east a, expected 1033 50N07W by 13/12
UTC, associated ridge extended to west.
New high expected 1038 46N33W by 13/00UTC, moving west, expected
1036 47N39W by 13/12UTC.
ITCZ axis along 09N13W 08N20W 07N25W 03N39W.
Part 3 : Area forecasts to Sunday 13 at 12 UTC
ACORES :
In west : Northeasterly 5 to 7 locally 8, decreasing 4 or 6 later
temporarily 7 in northwest. Gusts. In east : Easterly 4 to 6,
decreasing 3 to 5 later. Rough or very rough in west, moderate or
rough in east. Thundery showers, squalls with gusts.
IRVING :
Cyclonic 4 to 6 locally 7, decreasing 3 to 5 locally 6 later.
Gusts. Rough in west, locally very rough in northwest at first,
moderat ein east, Northerly swell. Thundery showers, squalls with
gusts.
METEOR :
In west : Westerly 4 to 6 locally 3 in south, decreasing 3 or 4
later occasionally 5 in north, backing West or Southwest 3 or 4 at
end. In east : Northerly 2 to 4 locally 5 in far east. Moderate,
but rough in northwest, Northerly swell. Some thundery showers in
north.
Part 4 : outlook for next 24 hours :
Threat of Northeast near gale over FINISTERRE.
Threat of Easterly near gale over JOSEPHINE on monday.
Elsewhere no significant phenomenon expected.
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- P.K.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
P.K. wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L=Special Tropical Weather Outlook=40%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L=Special Tropical Weather Outlook=40%
cycloneye wrote:Wow!!
12/1745 UTC 33.5N 30.5W ST3.5 92L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
So, it's about 55 kts? Or is the scale different for subtropical cyclones?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L
18z Best Track
AL, 92, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 335N, 305W, 45, 1009, LO
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
AL, 92, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 335N, 305W, 45, 1009, LO
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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