ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

So now onto the 18z GFS at 5:30PM to see if it will hold serve with its Peninsula solution or does it fold and move to the GOM with the EURO???

SFT

[Blown Away]

I so love the EURO....just when you think all is set in stone it throws out a wrench.....did this with IKE and now with TD9.....if it starts showing this next run then really need to take notice....

I just knew this Euro run would pull you back in!

[Hurricane Alexis]

The NHC discussion said that it should slow down and start to move WNW to NW while sensing the weakness so I don't understand how this run of the Euro would make any sense.

[Javlin]

It seems further W is the trend ATM...ATM! Have to see what tomorrow's models bring.

[sandyb]

I mean people buy into models 7 days out and think euro is wrong bec it shift west bec it's not where the gfs is, I mean everyone needs to be realistic here, it's going to keep changing and changing

I don't know a lot but I do know this much from going thru so many hurricanes here in NC...no one can tell you 7 to 8 days out if they can't tell you 24 hours out. I was in Irene last year for up to almost the time it hit us it was coming in in Florida then Ga the SC then Wilmington then it finally did come in at Carteret Co where I live, this model stuff is great and we can guess all day long and need to be ready for it no matter where they say its coming in but this far out no one knows. This thing will change 50 to 100 times before it ever hits land "if" it ever hits land. But where ever it goes please be ready and safe. We have had several hurricanes that have doen this I don't think we have ever had one that was actully forecaste to hit us and the track never moved one way or the other. Just everyone be ready I know I am gonna start getting things together this weekend if things are still looking like they do now.

[ROCK]

I so love the EURO....just when you think all is set in stone it throws out a wrench.....did this with IKE and now with TD9.....if it starts showing this next run then really need to take notice....

I just knew this Euro run would pull you back in!

never left....dang conf call took me away from the run....


I will say this.. one run does not set a trend...look for the EURO to show someting similar tonight and watch the GFS....if they start the swing then you know it saw it first....cant wait for WXMN57 to explaijn this one!!

[Blown Away]

A little more west this time.

[SunnyThoughts]

I believe NOAA is flying a gulfstream mission on Thursday...the information they receive from that is going to help immensely with the models..the more info the models have, the more reliable they become.

[JPmia]

A little more west this time.

yes, and if we add in the EURO we have a spread from NOLA east to the SE coast.. some inpatient days ahead!

[wxwatcher1999]

Got some ensembles showing Louisiana and Texas now

[Stormlover2012]

Also remember on Sunday gfs had a Texas landfall

[drezee]

That Euro track is scary...Perpendicular approach to the N Central GOM coast ala Frederick or Georges

[Weatherfreak000]

You can tell models trending west....perhaps it should continue...only time will tell. I can't help but notice models shifting west while it moves slightly south of west...

[islandgirl45]

I believe NOAA is flying a gulfstream mission on Thursday...the information they receive from that is going to help immensely with the models..the more info the models have, the more reliable they become.

How soon will the models reflect today's recon data?

[ROCK]

if that SW is not as pronounced and the ridge is underestimated I wouldnt doubt the recent EURO solution. you get this in the open GOM as toasty as it is....and the aloft conditions are right someone is going to have a really bad day. remember the EURO at 200+ is la la land at this point....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no one wants anything in the GOM right now....period....

[Blown Away]

When you got a model spread from Bahamas to Texas, that's what you need to set the Storm2k most posts record!

[Hurricane Alexis]

if that SW is not as pronounced and the ridge is underestimated I wouldnt doubt the recent EURO solution. you get this in the open GOM as toasty as it is....and the aloft conditions are right someone is going to have a really bad day. remember the EURO at 200+ is la la land at this point....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no one wants anything in the GOM right now....period....

But remember the Euro keeps it weak through most of the Caribbean, if it deepens much more than that earlier it should move more east than suggested by this run.

[LaBreeze]

if that SW is not as pronounced and the ridge is underestimated I wouldnt doubt the recent EURO solution. you get this in the open GOM as toasty as it is....and the aloft conditions are right someone is going to have a really bad day. remember the EURO at 200+ is la la land at this point....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

no one wants anything in the GOM right now....period....

Agreed! However, I'm sure no one wants this anywhere near them.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS ensembles have moved west as well.

[ROCK]

its screaming into the carib right now at 18mph....cannot hold convection...the EURO might be on to something.....but lets all remember that the EURO is biased left whereas the GFS biased right......you get the CMC to bite on this then I am really taking notice...