ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Stormlover2012
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#821 Postby Stormlover2012 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:11 am

lol we don't even know if the gfs is even going to be right and we are all calling for a slight shift to the right lol, yall are to funny
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#822 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:13 am

144HR on the north coast of Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical144.gif
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SeminoleWind
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Re:

#823 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:14 am

Stormlover2012 wrote:lol we don't even know if the gfs is even going to be right and we are all calling for a slight shift to the right lol, yall are to funny


I think that when it was mentioned a shift to the right im pretty sure they were talking about the current future frames of the GFS NOT the NHC cone.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#824 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:14 am

96L is at the same lat as TD9..... :lol: I dont see that happening with the high over the ALT screaming these west at a good clip....but I could be wrong.....
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Dean4Storms
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#825 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:14 am

138 hour into the FL Straits....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#826 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:14 am

SeminoleWind wrote:
Stormlover2012 wrote:lol we don't even know if the gfs is even going to be right and we are all calling for a slight shift to the right lol, yall are to funny


I think that when it was mentioned a shift to the right im pretty sure they were talking about the current future frames of the GFS NOT the NHC cone.

That is correct.
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meriland23
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#827 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:14 am

little concerning.. 12z at 132hrs shows a pretty subtantial one behind it vs nothing on the 06 run at the same time (138hrs) check

12z 132hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif

06z 138 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
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JPmia
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#828 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:15 am

looks like this run of the GFS is showing stronger high pressure ridging.. headed toward southern FL/Keys and into the Gulf?
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SeminoleWind
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#829 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:15 am

In the Florida straights with explosive potential.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#830 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:18 am

150HR landfall in the Keys

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical150.gif
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#831 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:19 am

Into the lowers Keys heading NNW! Gulf
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#832 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:19 am

162HR landfall South Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#833 Postby pricetag56 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:20 am

so is it gonna depend on how far south the trough in canada gets that determines when it will lift north?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#834 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:20 am

168HR over SW Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical168.gif
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#835 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:20 am

That looks like the Naples to Ft. Myers area.. more like SW FL
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#836 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 am

It appears that the GFS has folded to the 00z EURO and is going with the West Coast/GOM solution...Why would it do that when the majority of the GFS ensemble members moved further right??? :think:

SFT
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#837 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 am

pricetag56 wrote:so is it gonna depend on how far south the trough in canada gets that determines when it will lift north?

Also this is 6 days out from landfall in southern Florida..A lot can happen before then.
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ROCK
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#838 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 am

kinda of just sits there for a day or is just moving slow....drift


moving up the west coast of FL....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#839 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 am

174HR riding up the spine of Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical174.gif
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#840 Postby Riptide » Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:21 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:It appears that the GFS has folded to the 00z EURO and is going with the West Coast/GOM solution...Why would it do that when the majority of the GFS ensemble members moved further right??? :think:

SFT

Nothing is set in stone yet my friend, but it is interesting. Euro was also over the panhandle, unlike the GFS.
Last edited by Riptide on Tue Aug 21, 2012 11:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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