ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTPatrick]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

Off on my Comcast

[WxGuy1]

It doesn't look like any standard-height surface observation site (the ASOS and AWOS sites) has yet to sample actual Cat 1 wind speeds. Latest analysis from HRD:

From the surface observations I've seen, this looks pretty good. The only hurricane-force winds I've seen have been with the oil platforms above the water. I know KBVE was close to hurricane force winds, and I'm sure there were some peaks in there.

Note that the SS scale (and the NHC's estimate of 80 mph winds) is based on sustained winds, not peak wind gusts. Has anyone seen actual Cat 1 winds over land in the past few hours? The HRD analyses suggest that's not occurring, and that supports what I've seen in the surface observations. Of course, it's not uncommon for the surface observations to record considerably lower-than-max-winds observations, since the highest winds typically occur over a very small part of the storm near the eyewall and typically only near the coast on the onshore / right side of the circulation. The NHC site notes that the winds typically decrease one entire SS category if one is more than ~1/2 mile from the coast.

The latest KGAO ob is 50 kts sustained with gusts to 65 kts, which is still tropical storm condition.

[wxwatcher1999]

OK, plesae help me here. Perhaps I'm stupid and can't properly read a radar. Anybody's welcome to answer: What does this loop suggest to you?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Thanks in advance - this is for another board.

looks south to me but im not a met

[DonWrk]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

Same here.

[CronkPSU]

OK, plesae help me here. Perhaps I'm stupid and can't properly read a radar. Anybody's welcome to answer: What does this loop suggest to you?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Thanks in advance - this is for another board.

wow...that is a long wobble to the WSW according to that radar...and the eye is getting more defined?

[SunnyThoughts]

TWC off air on mediacom as well

[wxwatcher1999]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

Off on my Comcast

lost on time warner

[DukeDevil91]

OK, plesae help me here. Perhaps I'm stupid and can't properly read a radar. Anybody's welcome to answer: What does this loop suggest to you?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Thanks in advance - this is for another board.

An expanding and becoming well defined eye as it sits completely over water moving WSW...

[tolakram]

They eye is already over water wxwatcher. The tops are coming off the storm. He's done. Weakening from here.

A little quick to call it done I think. Pressure is still as low, but cloud tops are warming.

Should have said "my opinion" apologies!

Tolakram - Tell me. With the North side of the storm over land can it still strengthen if the eye remains over water?

Sorry, I have no idea.

[PauleinHouston]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

Off air at moment too...probably getting flogged for the "wobbling" comments...j/k. Radar def suggests W or even W/SW movement at moment.

[boomstyk]

I have to say, gfs has handled this well and I respect the nam in short term. Having said that...there are still models wanting to push this north west eventually. It may well end up near Morgan city before it drifts nw.
I think it's important to realize this is clearly in a weak steering situation. I don't think it has moved west truly, but rather, it Hit the breaks and its center did cyclonic loops in Barataria bay like it appeared to get sucked toward heavy convection. Could it become true west motion? Maybe. I think it's equally possible it could sit for a bit before it decides to go on in. I generally don't trust models much when steering breaks down....situations like this are notoriously tough forecasts, and I cant blame NHC for not jumping on a Beaumont landfall.

Really good breakdown PTPatrick. "cyclonic loops" describes it perfectly. Almost like the eye is weighted to one side. = great breakdown.

[windnrain]

So... with this WSW movement...

How about that GFS huh? It had called this all along!

[TwisterFanatic]

It's almost like Isaac is tracing the Louisiana coast.

[boomstyk]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

Same here.

Off for me!

[windnrain]

I'm in Baton Rouge here btw. Just a light 10-20 mph wind.

[tolakram]

Good grief, SW again.

saved loop

[MGC]

Just watching WWL Channel 4 out of New Orleans....looks like New Orleans is having an air raid....lots of transformers exploding causing flashes on the screen....Looks like Baghdad during the war.....just announced that a ship has broken loose in the river......MGC

[CronkPSU]

still got the weather channel on direcTV...Seidel getting pounded still

[Ntxw]

It isn't a wobble I don't think. Short range model guidance have been keen to this happening. They showed him hugging the coastline almost parallel until Morgan City and heading inland. Appears to be happening on radar. He can't head north yet because high pressure is building in from the northeast.

[MHurricanes]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

It's out on my cable, too.