ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Remember 1997...we had five tropical storms by the middle of July...but one thing about those storms was that they were forming outside the deep tropics. And after those five, we basically had nothing the rest of the season. So while I am not saying we will end up with as quiet a season as 1997 turned out to be, this early activity should not be interpreted that we are on a pace to beat any records.

...and in that year the WPAC and EPAC turned very active, with 19 storms in the Eastern Pacific and 11 Super Typhoons (of which 10 were at Cat. 5 strength) in the Western Pacific.

[Aric Dunn]

we didn't have the c storm in 2005 until july 4th.

Pre and Early-season subtropical storm formation is not a good indicator of an active season. If the 3 (4 if you count the earlier Azores storm) had formed in the deep tropics (Caribbean or MDR), then that would certainly indicate quite favorable conditions in the tropics and a very active season ahead. Of course, maybe we'll just have half a dozen semi-tropical systems forming in the subtropics and another 10 purely tropical systems...

Yeah, was not comparing it to 2005 in the sense of this being an indication. just as we all know is not normal.

[Dean4Storms]

Are they calling it Sub Tropical or Tropical, I'm cornfused!

[cycloneye]

Are they calling it Sub Tropical or Tropical, I'm cornfused!

Tropical Storm Chris.

[Zanthe]

Are they calling it Sub Tropical or Tropical, I'm cornfused!

Looks like they're calling it Tropical.

Don't see why, personally, but hey.

[Riptide]

Even though it's nearly sitting at 40N, it has positioned itself directly over the Gulf Stream in the highest area of sea surface temperatures.

[Aric Dunn]

Are they calling it Sub Tropical or Tropical, I'm cornfused!

Looks like they're calling it Tropical.

Don't see why, personally, but hey.

its all a matter of physics and definition.

[AnnularCane]

*still waiting for Chris to show up on NHC page*

But how often does something get downgraded from red to orange and then get named after that?

[westwind]

first advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 192053
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
2100 UTC TUE JUN 19 2012

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 57.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 57.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.2N 54.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.9N 46.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.3N 44.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 45.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 57.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion.

WTNT43 KNHC 192055
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
AND COVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM
TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS ALSO SHOW
THE SYSTEM AS A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT IS BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND A SHIP THAT REPORTED 35-KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/7. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW SHARP THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
CHRIS TRAVERSES THE MARGINALLY WARM WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS IN
36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE
SEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 39.3N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 39.2N 54.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 39.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 40.9N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 43.3N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 45.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[JonathanBelles]

Slightly off topic, but is that a new button for the satellite floater??

[bg1]

Sort of surprised they upgraded to TS this quickly! I thought more of a 80-100% special outlook. Good thing this did (as someone pointed out) find the Gulf Stream.

What's the farthest north a cyclone has ever formed?

[RL3AO]

Slightly off topic, but is that a new button for the satellite floater??

Thats a cool addition.

[yzerfan]

Environment Canada has Chris' track map up on their hurricane centre website. Wouldn't be surprised to see them start to issue products soon.

[bg1]

Environment Canada has Chris' track map up on their hurricane centre website. Wouldn't be surprised to see them start to issue products soon.

Interesting, because by the time it affects Canada it's forecast to be part of a bigger system, though it probably will affect the track.

THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4
DAYS... .

[ozonepete]

Are they calling it Sub Tropical or Tropical, I'm cornfused!

Looks like they're calling it Tropical.

Don't see why, personally, but hey.

From the Discussion:
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS ALSO SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...SYSTEM.


Looks warm core to me. There are no fronts attached, i.e. no sign of cold air being drawn into the center. Also has symmetry that you only see on warm core storms.

[Zanthe]

Sort of surprised they upgraded to TS this quickly! I thought more of a 80-100% special outlook. Good thing this did (as someone pointed out) find the Gulf Stream.

What's the farthest north a cyclone has ever formed?

Grace of '09. I don't know the exact lat and lon, but it was pretty far north.

[ozonepete]

Yup, Zanthe. Here's the quote from WIKI:

2009 - Tropical Storm Grace formed at 41.2°N latitude by 20.3°W longitude, eclipsing the record set by Hurricane Vince for the farthest northeast forming tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

[OuterBanker]

Total waste of a name, but good for building nembers.

But, to be fair, if it walks like a duck I guess you have to call it.

[Ptarmigan]

Never thought 95L would become Chris.