ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty good run to run consistency with the euro. basically the same track. but 00z had a NE florida landfall and held together a little better. Looks like 1000 MB at landfall

The Low itself is in the florida straights now as well. according to some models a separate low develops farther north which eventually transitions.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[northjaxpro]

Aric, I was one who also intially considered the Euro an outlier in previous runs in really spinning up this system in 72 hours, but I am beginning to think the Euro may be on to something. Euro has been depicting a more robust system to form just north of the Bahamas beginning Saturday. Development will be similar set-up to what we had with Alberto, but this system has a much larger tropical envelope feed which should enable it to be a significantly bigger system than Alberto for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I was one who also intially considered the Euro an outlier in previous runs in really spinning up this system in 72 hours, but I am beginning to think the Euro may be on to something. Euro has been depicting a more robust system to form just north of the Bahamas beginning Saturday. Development will be similar set-up to what we had with Alberto, but this system has a much larger tropical envelope feed which enable it to be a significantly bigger system than Alberto for sure.

from what the models are saying dry air will not be as much of a problem this go around.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like SE florida is about the get a whole lot of rain today.


whole lot of moisture return over the florida peninsula .... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[gatorcane]

Indeed as was my thinking a couple of days ago, slow development would be possible.

Expecting it remain quite sheared as it moves slowly into or near South FL then into the Bahamas but nonetheless quite impressive we already have our second possible system and its not even June.

[Aric Dunn]

Sure does seem like this low over the straights is going to maintain. track would take it across SE Florida exiting near west palm tomorrow ( which is a little to the left than the models). looking at the trends from the last 12 hours from TPW there may be a lot more in the way of substantial rain fall farther up the coast.

[NDG]

elongated low pressure coc is now approaching the FL keys, clearly seen also in vis sat loop.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 94, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 238N, 811W, 25, 1009, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[otowntiger]

Sure does seem like this low over the straights is going to maintain. track would take it across SE Florida exiting near west palm tomorrow ( which is a little to the left than the models). looking at the trends from the last 12 hours from TPW there may be a lot more in the way of substantial rain fall farther up the coast.

I hope that whatever becomes of this system it would be kind enough to send some rain up here in interior central Florida and not draw out the moisture ala Alberto. We're as dry as a bone and a significant wildfire threat continues to loom. Not to mention my water bill is ridiculous trying to keep my landscape alive.

[tolakram]

Live Visible Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Aric Dunn]

interestingly the flow here in central florida has shifted from a southerly to a more ese flow. likely do to the low in the straights deepening. all yesterday the low was very elongated with multiple vorts today however that has changed. its still not well defined but there is a much larger circulation pattern developing. Its starting to push moisture here into central florida at least in the low levels.

[JonathanBelles]

interestingly the flow here in central florida has shifted from a southerly to a more ese flow. likely do to the low in the straights deepening. all yesterday the low was very elongated with multiple vorts today however that has changed. its still not well defined but there is a much larger circulation pattern developing. Its starting to push moisture here into central florida at least in the low levels.

A light easterly breeze here in St. Pete blowing in the window. Yesterday it was mainly out of the north.

[N2Storms]

[quote="otowntiger"]8-) [quote="Aric Dunn"]Sure does seem like this low over the straights is going to maintain. track would take it across SE Florida exiting near west palm tomorrow ( which is a little to the left than the models). looking at the trends from the last 12 hours from TPW there may be a lot more in the way of substantial rain fall farther up the coast.[/quote] I hope that whatever becomes of this system it would be kind enough to send some rain up here in interior central Florida and not draw out the moisture ala Alberto. We're as dry as a bone and a significant wildfire threat continues to loom. Not to mention my water bill is ridiculous trying to keep my landscape alive.[/quote]



I feel your pain Otown...we are bone dry up here in the Panhandle as well and for a minute I thought we might be able to get some much needed moisture from whatever this turns out to be but now it appears that it is not going to push far enough west to give us anything.

[Nikki]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN

[Aric Dunn]

The circ is just about right over the middle keys. seems its becoming more defined pretty quick now with much more in the way of a west wind component . it should track over SE florida today leaving around west palm.

very close sat loop. you can turn on the radar overlay.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/e ... h-rgb.html

[gatorcane]

Winds over Florida, low-level circulation quite apparent south of the lower Keys:

[northjaxpro]

Considering that 94L has been fighting against shear up to 40 knots for its lifespan to this point, I think it is remarkable that the circulation is relatively still rather well-defined at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

Considering that 94L has been fighting against shear up to 40 knots for its lifespan to this point, I think it is remarkable that the circulation is relatively still rather well-defined at this time.

Im still curious. if this low does hold together instead of another developing farther north. well i guess the question is... is this broad circ tropical atm or not. I would assume the temperature profile is warm core. then in that case it would not necessarily have to transition. rather the environment would just have to become more conducive for organized convection.

[northjaxpro]

HPC surface analysis has 1009 mb Low (94L) intialized just south of the middle Keys