ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

But how much farther north does Leslie have to go before these islands are in the clear? I thought by 2 pm today it would be blue skies here. (at least in Nevis). Leslie is annoying me. The center is hundreds of miles north and we are still being affected. It seems to keep pushing stuff south.

I can only tell you that as long she continues to move slowly,those high clouds will remain above the NE Caribbean. Hopefully by Tuesday or Wednesday she is more north that the cloud deck goes away.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm poolside on the island of Nevis right now. What's with these durn outflow clouds from Leslie all the way here from 8 degrees further north? She is ruining my last full day of vacation. Also can't snorkel as water too murky. These clouds are killing me though. How far north of here does that thing have to get before clouds go away? We are still getting fringe circulation from Leslie since winds are coming from southwest. Normally they come from the northeast. Very little rain but way too much white cloud cover.

That is right. The whole NE Caribbean is under those high filament clouds. We in Puerto Rico have less high cloud cover but because of that,afternoon showers will form with the diurnal heating.

But how much farther north does Leslie have to go before these islands are in the clear? I thought by 2 pm today it would be blue skies here. (at least in Nevis). Leslie is annoying me. The center is hundreds of miles north and we are still being affected. It seems to keep pushing stuff south.

It's being sheared form the north so the clouds and convection are to the south of the center.

[cycloneye]

From the 5 PM EDT advisory,for the first time NHC goes up to cat 2 .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

[HurricaneAndrew92]

From the 5 PM EDT advisory,for the first time NHC goes up to cat 2 .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

Cycloneye, it is also noteable to say the track has significantly shifted west. What are your thoughts on a New England Landfall(Cape Cod, Maine) or brush? I know you are not a pro-met, I just would like to have your opinion.


Track:

[cycloneye]

From the 5 PM EDT advisory,for the first time NHC goes up to cat 2 .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

Cycloneye, it is also noteable to say the track has significantly shifted west. What are your thoughts on a New England Landfall(Cape Cod, Maine) or brush? I know you are not a pro-met, I just would like to have your opinion.

Here is a part of the discussion related to the track.

THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THERE IS NOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT DAY 5. THIS FORECAST LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

From the 5 PM EDT advisory,for the first time NHC goes up to cat 2 .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

Cycloneye, it is also noteable to say the track has significantly shifted west. What are your thoughts on a New England Landfall(Cape Cod, Maine) or brush? I know you are not a pro-met, I just would like to have your opinion.

Here is a part of the discussion related to the track.

THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THERE IS NOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT DAY 5. THIS FORECAST LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

I'll keep a watchful eye on Leslie.

[tolakram]

Latest

[Caesarp]

It's being sheared form the north so the clouds and convection are to the south of the center.

Well it is essentially stalled now. 3 mph ??? You got to be kidding me Way to ruin my Nevis trip Leslie. Still sending clouds way south of 25 degrees. It probably won't clear here until I'm back home tomorrow night.

[wxman57]

It's being sheared form the north so the clouds and convection are to the south of the center.

Well it is essentially stalled now. 3 mph ??? You got to be kidding me Way to ruin my Nevis trip Leslie. Still sending clouds way south of 25 degrees. It probably won't clear here until I'm back home tomorrow night.

It won't move much in the next 2-3 days at least. If you want clear weather, go to the Caribbean in the winter.

[jinftl]

At 5pm, it is partly cloudy and 88 deg on Nevis.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78859.html

You are in paradise. This thread is about Leslie, not your ruined caribbean vacation (that many can only dream of being able to afford to do)due to partly cloudy skies and no rain. Please stay on topic and enjoy the paradise you are in! There has to be more than the Leslie thread on the last day in Nevis!

It's being sheared form the north so the clouds and convection are to the south of the center.

Well it is essentially stalled now. 3 mph ??? You got to be kidding me Way to ruin my Nevis trip Leslie. Still sending clouds way south of 25 degrees. It probably won't clear here until I'm back home tomorrow night.

[somethingfunny]

lol indeed, your trip would have been quite a bit less perfect had Leslie not made the northwest turn.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

It's being sheared form the north so the clouds and convection are to the south of the center.

Well it is essentially stalled now. 3 mph ??? You got to be kidding me Way to ruin my Nevis trip Leslie. Still sending clouds way south of 25 degrees. It probably won't clear here until I'm back home tomorrow night.

I agree. This thread is about Leslie, and I'm watching it to make sure if it will come here or not. I understand if you are upset if its raining, but if it's partially cloudy. C'mon, it's the tropics. The peak is a week away!

[hurricanes1234]

Stadium effect going on in the colder cloudtops? Notice the rippled structure at the top of the vigorous convection.

[ozonepete]

Stadium effect going on in the colder cloudtops? Notice the rippled structure at the top of the vigorous convection.

No, 1234. You can only have the stadium effect in a very well formed eye in a very vertically stacked powerful cat 4 or 5 hurricane. I've never heard of it occurring in anything weaker, although others here can correct me if I'm wrong. It is also usually cloud free, though I believe it doesn't have to be.

[ozonepete]

Stadium effect is also only visible from Hurricane Hunter aircraft. I guess it might somehow be visible from the ground but I've never seen such a view in a picture. Here's a hurricane hunter view of it in Katrina in 2005.

[meriland23]

I noticed in the last few model runs tha ta few have taken quite a westward jog, is this some error or is there actual reason for this in the tropics? This would be a very significant hurricane.. euro and its 930 mb prediction.. yikes :S

[hurricanes1234]

Stadium effect going on in the colder cloudtops? Notice the rippled structure at the top of the vigorous convection.

No, 1234. You can only have the stadium effect in a very well formed eye in a very vertically stacked powerful cat 4 or 5 hurricane. I've never heard of it occurring in anything weaker, although others here can correct me if I'm wrong. It is also usually cloud free, though I believe it doesn't have to be.

My bad.

[ozonepete]

I noticed in the last few model runs tha ta few have taken quite a westward jog, is this some error or is there actual reason for this in the tropics? This would be a very significant hurricane.. euro and its 930 mb prediction.. yikes :S

Sure is interesting. I assume a lot of it has to do with the models now getting initialized with a position further west. It also will depend heavily on how much that ridge builds over it and the speed of that big trough coming iin from the northwestern U.S. at the end of the week. The models are a little shaky on this as the seasons change -they have some persistence programmed in and so may not "see" it well nor resolve it correctly when the first strong, deep trough comes into the U.S. in September.

[jaxfladude]

Got to love or fear this time of year.....hope Miss "L" is NOT nasty for someone....stay aware....

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Center almost fully tucked into convection? Because that convection is pretty violent, once the center is embedded within it, it has a higher possibility of becoming a hurricane sooner than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.