ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rainstorm]

it appears to be in the process of poofing again

[Riptide]

That's not right, the LLC is moving between WNW and NW.

[crimi481]

My thoughts from yesterday post":
Is the ULL near S. Fl - forecast to keep moving in WSW direction?
If so - woud Leslie follow it - as ridge builds to her N?

In time -Center Sould re-strenghten over the w.n.w.moving center. NHC Track will need major adjustment to west - I believe
Center has not just re-located 30 miles t west (as mentioned in 11 AM discussion, rather it seems to have increased motion speed -moving away from convection (I guess from ridge building over Leslie's N.E. Quad) -seen on visible loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[rainstorm]

yea, it looks like the LLC is completely exposed nw of the dwindling convection.

[Riptide]

yea, it looks like the LLC is completely exposed nw of the dwindling convection.

Even more strange is that the GFS moves the center almost NE in the next 6 hours; even the NHC track isn't that far east.

[rainstorm]

you got the 12z gfs? maybe its the convection that moves NE?

[Riptide]

you got the 12z gfs? maybe its the convection that moves NE?

There is no center relocation, the GFS simply abrubtly moves the center ENE; no other model does this and this the main reason why the GFS is farther east than the euro.

[crimi481]

Based on NHC 1200Z Center Point - it may have moved just S of west. Looping? Hard to tell

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rgb.html

[Riptide]

Based on NHC 1200Z Center Point - it may have moved just S of west. Looping? Hard to tell

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rgb.html

Pretty weird, I have no idea what's going on right now with Leslie. Some of the BAM models did forecast a loop to occur.

[cycloneye]

This is the discussion about Leslie that Dr Jeff Masters made today.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:18 PM AST on September 03, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

[SFLcane]

yea, it looks like the LLC is completely exposed nw of the dwindling convection.

were have i seen that before...

[cycloneye]

The squadron is getting ready to fly it's first mission on Wednesday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 031545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 03 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My track in red...nhc in green.



Comments appreciated.

EDIT:My track does not show the more west movement going on now.

[vbhoutex]

Sitting here in Bermuda looking at the ocean at the bottom of the garden. It'sually like a mill pond but we have huge swells today. Waves are coming over the garden wall. Does anyone know if this is already the effects of Leslie - assume not as she is still so far away?

More than likely it is a result of Leslie. I've lived on the Gulf Coast all my life. I remember several times when there were storms in the Southern Gulf and we were surfing what we called hurricane swells that were generated by the likes of Celia, Camille, etc. I remember several times in the last several years when there have been advisories issued along the East coast for heavy surf when storms were far off the coast.

Here is some confirmation of that.

Texas Tech Hurricane Research Team
...we continue to monitor TS Leslie as the cyclone generates large swells for the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

[Hey Its Me]

Visible looks like the LLC is past 63 W

Yes, and between 24N-25N - NW of that small blob of convection that now appears to be weakening. Still struggling with strong shear.

I should really print some of these out and place them on a dart board. /sarc

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Living in the eastern part of southern NE, I've been keeping an "eye" on Leslie. Even though it will likely hit Canada, it it were to make landfall in east southern NE, how strong could/would it be?

[Caesarp]

I'm poolside on the island of Nevis right now. What's with these durn outflow clouds from Leslie all the way here from 8 degrees further north? She is ruining my last full day of vacation. Also can't snorkel as water too murky. These clouds are killing me though. How far north of here does that thing have to get before clouds go away? We are still getting fringe circulation from Leslie since winds are coming from southwest. Normally they come from the northeast. Very little rain but way too much white cloud cover.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Nice little blow up of convection near the center...

[cycloneye]

I'm poolside on the island of Nevis right now. What's with these durn outflow clouds from Leslie all the way here from 8 degrees further north? She is ruining my last full day of vacation. Also can't snorkel as water too murky. These clouds are killing me though. How far north of here does that thing have to get before clouds go away? We are still getting fringe circulation from Leslie since winds are coming from southwest. Normally they come from the northeast. Very little rain but way too much white cloud cover.

That is right. The whole NE Caribbean is under those high filament clouds. We in Puerto Rico have less high cloud cover but because of that,afternoon showers will form with the diurnal heating.

[Caesarp]

I'm poolside on the island of Nevis right now. What's with these durn outflow clouds from Leslie all the way here from 8 degrees further north? She is ruining my last full day of vacation. Also can't snorkel as water too murky. These clouds are killing me though. How far north of here does that thing have to get before clouds go away? We are still getting fringe circulation from Leslie since winds are coming from southwest. Normally they come from the northeast. Very little rain but way too much white cloud cover.

That is right. The whole NE Caribbean is under those high filament clouds. We in Puerto Rico have less high cloud cover but because of that,afternoon showers will form with the diurnal heating.

But how much farther north does Leslie have to go before these islands are in the clear? I thought by 2 pm today it would be blue skies here. (at least in Nevis). Leslie is annoying me. The center is hundreds of miles north and we are still being affected. It seems to keep pushing stuff south.