ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[FutureEM]

Check out all the CMC ensembles, some are pretty bullish.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 2&Type=pnm

[Portastorm]

I'm just wondering here. Is it possible the TC misses the ridge and the trough and heads due north?

As the pro mets (and educated non-mets) have indicated, anyone from the northeastern Gulf coast of Mexico to Florida is "in play" right now.

I'm a little confused as the Harris County Flood Control met says this:

Tropical cyclone formation increasingly likely in the Gulf of Mexico.
Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
(Nothing about only the northeastern GOM)

The National Hurricane Center says this:

INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

(nothing about only the Northeastern GOM)

So, I am respectfully confused about your reply regarding Northeastern GOM to Florida.

Please read my post again ... I wrote "northeastern Gulf coast of Mexico".

[WeatherNewbie]

I'm just wondering here. Is it possible the TC misses the ridge and the trough and heads due north?

As the pro mets (and educated non-mets) have indicated, anyone from the northeastern Gulf coast of Mexico to Florida is "in play" right now.

I'm a little confused as the Harris County Flood Control met says this:

Tropical cyclone formation increasingly likely in the Gulf of Mexico.
Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
(Nothing about only the northeastern GOM)

The National Hurricane Center says this:

INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

(nothing about only the Northeastern GOM)

So, I am respectfully confused about your reply regarding Northeastern GOM to Florida.

he didn't say northeastern GOM. he said northeastern gulf coast of mexico... i.e the northeastern portion of the country of mexico.

[SETXPTNeches]

I was under the impression that most of TX is protected by a High Pressure system??? So why are some models pointing to Houston? (CMC?)

[Houstonia]

Please read my post again ... I wrote "northeastern Gulf coast of Mexico".

Ahh... I respectfully stand corrected. *bows*

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. INTERESTS
ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Dean4Storms]

With the apparent center of Circulation forming off the NE Tip of the Yucatan I believe the CMC run will not verify. It forms the low near or just west of 90W in the central Gulf!

[Comanche]

That would suck, don't need it in Houston, supposed to graduate boot camp in Memorial park next Friday. GO somewhere else Debby!

[Aric Dunn]

Convection re-firing, strong low to mid level rotation. The area just NE of the YP looks to be the focal point.

[ROCK]

Check out all the CMC ensembles, some are pretty bullish.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 2&Type=pnm

945MB uh I dont know about that.... that would be a CAT 4 or 5....sheesh....CMC never has been an intensity model I would rely on....

[vaffie]

Check out all the CMC ensembles, some are pretty bullish.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 2&Type=pnm

Wow, a bunch of 965 mb and one that's 945 mb. 945 mb is the verge of a Category 4...

[Hurricaneman]

Convection re-firing, strong low to mid level rotation. The area just NE of the YP looks to be the focal point.

you, me and someone else wh I can't remember saw this happening since yesterday that there would be a possible relocation just northeast of the tip of the yucatan and that seems to be the case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

This is forming further SE than most of the models have shown, especially the ones that have it missing the trough. I have a hard time believing this gains much western longitude before the trough digs.

[ROCK]

EURO coming out.....maybe it will give us a clue....

[FutureEM]

Check out all the CMC ensembles, some are pretty bullish.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble ... 2&Type=pnm

Wow, a bunch of 965 mb and one that's 945 mb. 945 mb is the verge of a Category 4...

And a 949 as well, lets hope conditions don't follow any of those.

[Aric Dunn]

general location....

radar surface obs and satellite are indicating something trying to develop here. will it maintain is the key.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

EURO 24 hours:



EDIT: You want to cover this one Rock?

[ROCK]

you do it Evil....I will just chime in....

[Evil Jeremy]

48 Hours in, more concentrated than the previous run which had split lows at this time: