ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Earl is certainly a system that is coming to mind as a system that kept on getting adjusted westwards, especially with regards to the first part of its track, at one point models recurved as soon as 40-45W from what I remember, but it kept tracking near due west till around 55-60W.

[Jimsot]

http://www.anguilla-weather.com/Earl1.JPG

EARL makes the turn a little too late for Anguilla. The SW winds were wicked.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Down in latitude from 11.6N at 12z to 11.2N now.

AL, 94, 2012081718, , BEST, 0, 112N, 237W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Gustywind]

Same latitude than the previous position and continues to progress westward.

17/1745 UTC 11.1N 24.0W TOO WEAK 94L
17/1145 UTC 11.1N 23.1W TOO WEAK 94L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
EXTENDING FROM 16N19W TO 8N21W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

[tolakram]

It has a ways to go. Saved loop:

[gatorcane]

Starting to show up on the wide-range Atlantic loop...given the model support and time of year, it has all the makings of classic Cape Verde hurricane....

[Gustywind]

Please, help can someone put a fresh pic of 94L ?

[Gustywind]

Oh , that's nice thanks to you Aric .

[cycloneye]

It has a ways to go. Saved loop:

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/8194/zzmovie.gif

There are two competing circulations trying to fight to see which will be the dominant one. And while that is gong on,it keeps moving west.

[KWT]

Nothing too outstanding at the moment there, but a slow brewer is a major issue down the line.

Still displaying the look of multiple circulations, convection is quite well massed.

Conditions down the line are looking good, the shearing TUTT seems to be a non-issue by the time this gets to that area.

[Gustywind]

Hi Gatorcane , do you think that 94L could be a player down the road for the Leewards, Northern Leewards? or not?What are your thougts about this feature? Thanks to you, we always appreciate your comments as many others.

[Hammy]

still seems to be connected to the ITCZ right now

and a small question: what does DB indicate at the end of the best tracks? (instead of using WV or LO which I see other times)

[cycloneye]

still seems to be connected to the ITCZ right now

and a small question: what does DB indicate at the end of the best tracks? (instead of using WV or LO which I see other times)

DB=Disturbance.

[Weatherfreak000]

WAY WAY too premature to suggest anything about this storm. I can only gather a few assumptions from sat views and model runs, all of which are theories and fantasies....at best. First off, the structure of this invest appears to be superior to that of both Ernesto and TD 7, this seems to suggest that dissipation shall not occur. The variables concerning the weakness are much too hard to digest being so far out, essentially when the invest is in the Eastern ATL range and you know you're only getting 6 hour fixes anyway that should be a good sign to relax and not stress about where it is going and where it should go but I will say this.....I always had a feeling Issac was going to be the storm to watch. Before you ask, no not because of the name "Issac", just because of typical "I" storm logic which would tell you the brunt of the season usually features the I storm developing, so that is going to be when you watch for large hurricanes.


Prediction here? I say it stays west and moves faster than expected, but not much faster. The three key factors that dictate the model shifts are 1. How south 94L emerged off Africa, which has already occurred and the models already responded. 2. How fast is goes 3. How strong it gets.


Long range is lala land at best, any vet or pro-met will tell you that.


See S2K Disclaimer for professional resources, I am just an amateur, do not take my opinion with anything more than a grain of salt.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

WAY WAY too premature to suggest anything about this storm. I can only gather a few assumptions from sat views and model runs, all of which are theories and fantasies....at best. First off, the structure of this invest appears to be superior to that of both Ernesto and TD 7, this seems to suggest that dissipation shall not occur. The variables concerning the weakness are much too hard to digest being so far out, essentially when the invest is in the Eastern ATL range and you know you're only getting 6 hour fixes anyway that should be a good sign to relax and not stress about where it is going and where it should go but I will say this.....I always had a feeling Issac was going to be the storm to watch. Before you ask, no not because of the name "Issac", just because of typical "I" storm logic which would tell you the brunt of the season usually features the I storm developing, so that is going to be when you watch for large hurricanes.


Prediction here? I say it stays west and moves faster than expected, but not much faster. The three key factors that dictate the model shifts are 1. How south 94L emerged off Africa, which has already occurred and the models already responded. 2. How fast is goes 3. How strong it gets.


Long range is lala land at best, any vet or pro-met will tell you that.


See S2K Disclaimer for professional resources, I am just an amateur, do not take my opinion with anything more than a grain of salt.

Issac is just a horrible name to give to a hurricane, IMO....since the 1900 storm that killed 9,000 people has been unofficially named Issac for the local weather guy on the island at that time. Still surpasses loss of life in all natural disasters for the US to date...including Katrina

[KWT]

Might yet end up being Helene, who knows!!

Still there have been storms that have obviously been recruve systems from the get-go...BUT when you have a system down at 10-11N in August and heading west till at least 45W then you always have a risk. The models are reminding me of Earl in the way they kept taking the system further and further west and also reducing the intensity. ECM indeed doesn't really get this going till 45-50W. If that happens then its a totally different ballgame...

[ConvergenceZone]

Issac is just a horrible name to give to a hurricane, IMO....since the 1900 storm that killed 9,000 people has been unofficially named Issac for the local weather guy on the island at that time. Still surpasses loss of life in all natural disasters for the US to date...including Katrina

Why haven't they retired the name Issac? Don't they usually retire them if they've been that severe? or do they only retire it for a certain amount of years?

[caneseddy]

Issac is just a horrible name to give to a hurricane, IMO....since the 1900 storm that killed 9,000 people has been unofficially named Issac for the local weather guy on the island at that time. Still surpasses loss of life in all natural disasters for the US to date...including Katrina

Why haven't they retired the name Issac? Don't they usually retire them if they've been that severe? or do they only retire it for a certain amount of years?

CZ,

Actually the 1900 hurricane did not officially have a name. Like Rock said, it is locally called Isaac because of Isaac Cline, who was the NWS meteorologist on Galveston at the time, and who is famous for trying to warn the island that a hurricane was coming, which many did not heed. A book actually came out called "Isaac's Storm" about the hurricane and his efforts. He lost his entire family in that storm.