CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I know its the 4th of July and everyone is out partying ...

Dvorak classifications:

05/0600 UTC 13.3N 109.3W T3.0/3.0 04E -- East Pacific

UW-CIMSS ADT:

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5

All support a TS.

We also have a decent CDO:

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, I think its time to declare TS Daniel. Its organization and persistent deep convection over the LLC has been that of a medium TS for quite some time now. Weird TD so far. I won't be following this one very closely since it will likely be a boring system as Yellow mentioned but if it does an amazing wsw dip and continues westwards that might get my attention.

I think the last TD4-E discussion used "CONFLUENCE" and "DIFFLUENCE" more then I have ever seen before. Why is it that these factors only come up once in a blue moon?

[Kingarabian]

I personally follow storms as much as I can.

I'm following this one and the one after it since models are consistent in showing something coming close to Hawaii. I know it's probably too early to have a basin crosser but you never know!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE OR
SCATTEROMETER DATA. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT
11 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN
TURN MORE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING THAT TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. AS A
RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND
IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.8N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.3N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 15.5N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 15.8N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 16.3N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track upgrades to TS Daniel.Of course the official advisory will validate Best Track or not.

EP, 04, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1100W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

I personally follow storms as much as I can.

I'm following this one and the one after it since models are consistent in showing something coming close to Hawaii. I know it's probably too early to have a basin crosser but you never know!

Will likely die near or just beyond 130W IMO.

[dexterlabio]

NRL page already has Daniel.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

A 0930Z AMSU PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN SHOWING THE LOCATION OF THE
CYCLONE AND INDICATED THAT A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT
HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION AND THE
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED
ON THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KT BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR RELAXING A BIT WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 60 KT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE HWRF. AFTER THAT
TIME...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AT DAYS
3 THROUGH 5 BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS
LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO...AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.3N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.5N 118.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[euro6208]

hmm interesting. euro has daniel strengthening a bit more possibly a hurricane as it tracks to the west into the central pacific and passing south of hawaii as a weakening system. could the remnants cross over to the wpac? we'll see

euro has another system developing to the east of daniel. it looks like daniels twin...

[Chickenzilla]

Time for some satellite images of TS Daniel
A visible satellite image

Convection is not as strong as few hours before, but it is still strong and well-organized.

[Kingarabian]

hmm interesting. euro has daniel strengthening a bit more possibly a hurricane as it tracks to the west into the central pacific and passing south of hawaii as a weakening system. could the remnants cross over to the wpac? we'll see

euro has another system developing to the east of daniel. it looks like daniels twin...

Yeah just saw that.

[Kingarabian]

Up to 50kts.

[bob rulz]

That doesn't surprise me if it turns out to be true - it looks like it's had a pretty good burst of intensification to me. That convection has tightened up nicely.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Up to 50kts.

From the RBT or NRL?

[Kingarabian]

Up to 50kts.

From the RBT or NRL?

From BT:

Code: Select all

EP, 04, 2012070518,   , BEST,   0, 141N, 1112W,  50,  997, TS

[Kingarabian]

Still has a ways to go from becoming like its older brother:

[Cyclenall]

Looking at the latest satellite visible imagery, I was shocked to see how well organized it became in such a short period of time. It almost looks like an eye is forming with excellent banding to the south. This could be an indication it was much stronger all along (medium TS) or is undergoing rapid intensification just starting now.

Up to 50kts.

Strengthening quickly now, should have no problem becoming a hurricane at this point. I thought the NHC should have kept it reaching 65 knots (remember with Bud?) for Daniel. All its doing is making up for lost time which is what Bud did as well. I would say 55 knots IMO but with the recent trends on sat it might be closer to 60 knots. All it needs to do now is dip wsw and this becomes an interesting TC.

[cycloneye]

Peak is 75kts.


TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

DANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT
ALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX
GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL. IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

DANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN
ESTIMATE OF 280/11. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to see that they suggested it may RI.