ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Shear will not be a big problem.

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12062 ... _ships.txt

[Evil Jeremy]

For what they're worth (their -2 cents), the BAM's favor a western path.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances that a front comes in and this pulls an Agnes?

[Weatherfreak000]

I could use some bands.....ALL HAIL CMC



If CMC is my best bet i'm team Texas

[ROCK]

yeah BAMMS are a very -2 cents...but they do provide hints on steering layers....shallow, Medium and Deep...anyway I always found them sort of helpful...

[bamajammer4eva]

First Tropical model run:

[code]
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC

]

So no hurricane- just a storm then. This is better than global as far as intensity?

Sent from my SCH-I510 using Tapatalk 2

[bamajammer4eva]

Sorry double post

[Rgv20]

Honestly the UKMET was the one that until now has not change its mind on this being a Western Gulf threat.....If I'm not mistaken tho UKMET has a biased toward overdoing ridges.

[Weatherfreak000]

Any1 know if they will run GFDL?

[cycloneye]

First Tropical model run:

[code]
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC

]

So no hurricane- just a storm then. This is better than global as far as intensity?

Sent from my SCH-I510 using Tapatalk 2

Is only the first run,and for sure with each run changes will occur. The models for intensity are HWRF and GFDL that will be out after 6 PM EDT.

[latitude_20]

Not a lot of surface convergence to speak of right now - but upper divergence looks good.

[tolakram]

Inland over Texas

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif


mid-Texas coast....landfall...

[Aric Dunn]

Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot

[Rgv20]

Judging by the ECMWF it looks like a pretty good size hurricane....Anybody agree?

[Ntxw]

Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot

How quickly it gets organized I think is more important than where. It has a time period of 2-3 days if it's going to make an eastern/northern gulf landfall.

[ROCK]

Shear will not be a big problem.

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12062 ... _ships.txt

oh man that is not good....

[Dave]

A reminder to the members to include our disclaimer if you are going to make a forecast or statement,thanks for your cooperation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot

How quickly it gets organized I think is more important than where. It has a time period of 2-3 days if it's going to make an eastern/northern gulf landfall.

Looking as this disturbance is Monsoonal in origin is going to take a while to get going. I suspect that in 3 days is going to be a depression maybe a lower end TS.

[cycloneye]

A reminder that we have the 96L main discussion thread to talk all about the system,radars,sat images etc.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112976&p=2231934#p2231934