WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Depression

#61 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 11, 2012 9:29 pm

JTWC Upgrades to Tropical Storm

But still without a name as JMA has not upgraded.

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 9.9N 143.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 143.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.4N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.8N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.0N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.1N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.3N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 143.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

Image
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#62 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 11, 2012 10:40 pm

JMA rarely upgrades at the non-synoptic hour, but it has happened before. 05W looks good so we'll see. Warning due in next 10 mins.
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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 11, 2012 10:47 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 120329
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052012
200 PM CHST TUE JUN 12 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 05W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.2 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

135 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
180 MILES EAST OF FAIS
245 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
350 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 05W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 05W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...10.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
143.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AT 800 PM CHST.

$$


WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS INTERPOLATED FROM A CONVECTIVE HOOK
IN A 112006Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A BAND OF DRY, CONVERGENT FLOW
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW. THERE IS WEAK
OUTFLOW INTO A FILLING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM GUAM,
KOROR AND YAP INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW AND SUPPORT THE MODEL DEPICTION
OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING. HOWEVER, THE UKMO AND
NOGAPS MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWARD, WHICH IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO THE ANALYZED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS
A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND OUTFLOW
IMPROVES INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
BEGINS TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AROUND TAU 72 AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE RE-CURVE POINT. NOGAPS TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AT TAU 96,
WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG STR. THE JTWC FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BUT POSITIONED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFF-SET THE UNLIKELY UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS,
FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

KLEESCHULTE

Supports Tropical Storm Strength

TXPQ28 KNES 112158
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 11/2032Z

C. 10.1N

D. 143.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION NOW WRAPS 6 TENTHS AROUND LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR
DT=3.0. OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF CONVECTION/DENSE COLD OVERCAST. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
BEEN FOR PULSING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT
GOING FORWARD. MET=2.0 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT FROM 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/1533Z 9.7N 144.7E AMSU
11/1947Z 10.0N 143.9E SSMIS


...RUMINSKI
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 11, 2012 10:49 pm

it looks like we will have a rapidly intensifying storm in the world's #1 spot for Super Typhoons... and forecast to stay there for a long time! :eek:
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#65 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 11, 2012 10:50 pm

Can I remind whoever changed the topic title that this is still a tropical depression from the RSMC.
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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Storm

#66 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:02 pm

Image

seriously, 05W looks like a very very small intense tropical storm right now...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 997.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.8


05W may be stronger....I think JTWC at 35 knots is 15-20 knots too low....
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#67 Postby Chacor » Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:08 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 09.6N 143.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 10.3N 140.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Storm

#68 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jun 12, 2012 12:31 am

it doesn't look as good as it did this morning. could that mean the shear impacting the circulation?
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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Storm

#69 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:25 am

i don't know if it is shear or dry inflow from the north but this is definitely struggling right now. might be back to a TD on JTWC's next warning.
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#70 Postby francis327 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:25 am

Now TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL by JMA


WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1204 GUCHOL (1204) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 09.5N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 10.7N 139.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140600UTC 12.1N 136.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 150600UTC 13.7N 132.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
Last edited by francis327 on Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 05W -Tropical Storm

#71 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:40 am

Still a Tropical Storm from JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 9.8N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 10.3N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.8N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.4N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.2N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#72 Postby Amoygal » Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:20 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote: My main concern is if this passes near Taiwan in the long run, they're in the middle of an immense rain event right now with over 1500mm of rain dropped in some parts of the island over the last 2.5 days. If Guchol should impact them it'll be dumping more rain on saturated ground.


Indeed. We have received an incredible amount of rain in the last 24-48 hours island-wide. Still raining. Even here in Taipei there were some areas that flooded, and schools and business were closed from noon onward. Other areas have seen loss of life, landslides, and widespread flooding. A typhoon in a few days would be a real problem.
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#73 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:57 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 121301
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (05W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052012
1100 PM CHST TUE JUN 12 2012

...TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (05W) IN EASTERN YAP STATE STILL MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (05W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.2
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

115 MILES EAST OF FAIS
175 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
280 MILES EAST OF YAP
180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP AND
310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL (05W) HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...AND TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT FROM THE CENTER UP TO 25 MILES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CHST POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM CHST.

$$

SIMPSON


WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF
MSI NEWLY FORMING OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE EVIDENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THESE FEATURES WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25-45 KNOTS FROM RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS BOTH SUPPRESSING AND AIDING IN
OUTFLOW. THERE IS A RELATIVELY DRY AND CONVERGENT PRESSURE ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN SECTORS. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE DIVERGENT
SIDE OF THE TUTT CELL. THESE COMPETING FORCES MAY BE THE REASON FOR
THE SYSTEM'S CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED STEERING STR DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS IT TRACKS
OVER WARM WATER AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. NOGAPS REMAINS THE RIGHT-MOST OUTLIER OF AN
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY CLOSELY GROUPED THREE-DAY ENVELOPE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARDS AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
AND BEGINS TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AROUND TAU 72 AND THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE RE-CURVE POINT. NOGAPS TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD
AT TAU 96, WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG STR. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BUT POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFF-SET THE UNLIKELY NOGAPS SOLUTION,
FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE LLCC AND MODEL
SPREAD AFTER TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#74 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:47 am

Image

still expected to rapidly intensify!

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 9.6N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.1N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.7N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.4N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.3N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.1N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 141.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

dvorak still says this is stronger otherwise

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.7mb/ 51.0kt


Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#75 Postby Chacor » Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:48 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 09.4N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 11.0N 138.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141200UTC 12.8N 134.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 151200UTC 14.8N 130.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 161200UTC 16.8N 127.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
120HF 171200UTC 19.6N 125.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT =
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#76 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:45 am

prognostic reasoning from JTWC.

WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING
AND CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 121042Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TWO TIGHTLY CURVING
BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THESE
FEATURES WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONVERGING DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS FROM RJTD,
KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS BOTH
SUPPRESSING AND AIDING IN OUTFLOW. THERE IS A RELATIVELY DRY AND
CONVERGENT PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
SECTORS. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC IS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED BY THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TUTT CELL. THESE COMPETING
FORCES MAY BE THE REASON FOR THE SYSTEM'S CONTINUED SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED STEERING STR DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS IT TRACKS
OVER WARM WATER AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW GENERALLY SPLIT
INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS. LEFT OUTLIERS (WBAR, GFS, AND ECMWF) DO
NOT BREAK DOWN THE STEERING STR AS MUCH AS THE RIGHT OUTLIERS
(NOGAPS, AND GFDN). MODEL FIELDS ARE PORTRAYING THE JET MAX TO EXIT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 60-72. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD SCENARIO AND LIES SLIGHTLY LEFT
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) DURING THIS TIME.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARDS AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
AND BEGINS TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
AROUND TAU 72 AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RE-CURVE POINT.
NOGAPS TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AT TAU 96, WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE STRONG STR. BY TAU 120 THERE IS AN APPROXIMATE 340 NM SPREAD
BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND GFS LOCATIONS. THE LLCC SHOULD BE NEAR 22N
LATITUDE BY THIS TIME AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES; HOWEVER, THE TIMING IS EXTREMELY HARD TO PIN-POINT.
INTENSITY IS HELD NEARLY CONSTANT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS
LOW OVERALL FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POOR
INITIALIZATION OF THE LLCC AND MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#77 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:13 am

Hey guys if you want to my video today it is below, I talk about Guchol but also the weather in Taiwan, and eventually these two separate problems may become one.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih78ecki6wg[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#78 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2012 2:27 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 09.4N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 10.7N 138.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141800UTC 12.6N 133.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 151800UTC 14.8N 129.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#79 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2012 3:46 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 9.6N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 10.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.8N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.7N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 140.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE WAS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON A 121655Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON
KNES AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT PULL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTH. THE SUBSIDENT
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST IS INHIBITING
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES
THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY REGION IS WEAKENING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE STR WEAKENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH
OF CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 72;
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 05W IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING STR AND TURN MORE POLEWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH NOGAPS AS THE FASTEST RECURVER AND GFS, GFDN,
AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RECURVATURE TIMING AND POSITION DUE
TO THE MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO BASED ON THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS GUCHOL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
NNNN


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Re: WPAC: GUCHOL - Tropical Storm 05W

#80 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:23 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 09.3N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 10.4N 137.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 150000UTC 12.2N 132.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160000UTC 15.0N 129.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
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