textbook EWRC
SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
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WTIO30 FMEE 111855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 ET CI=5.0+
THE INNER WALL HAS DISAPPEARED ON THE MICRO WAVES DATA SSMIS 14H15UTC,
THE CURRENT ERC SEEMS TO BE OVER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND HASCLEARLY INCREASED AND THE WIND-FIELD HAS EXPANDED. THE NEW WALL EYE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRACT. ON THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE
INTENSIFICATION SEEM TO BEGIN AGAIN.
GLOBAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH ... AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WELL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
LATER TONIGHT, A DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILT TO HE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEERED THE SYSTEM ON A GRADUALLY FASTER
WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGHEN AGAIN.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON
THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT ... BUT GIOVANNA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THE
PREDILECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE
NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD
TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR (SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED WITHIN THE THREATEN AREA
CITED PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :48 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 ET CI=5.0+
THE INNER WALL HAS DISAPPEARED ON THE MICRO WAVES DATA SSMIS 14H15UTC,
THE CURRENT ERC SEEMS TO BE OVER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND HASCLEARLY INCREASED AND THE WIND-FIELD HAS EXPANDED. THE NEW WALL EYE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRACT. ON THE LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE
INTENSIFICATION SEEM TO BEGIN AGAIN.
GLOBAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH ... AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WELL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
LATER TONIGHT, A DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILT TO HE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEERED THE SYSTEM ON A GRADUALLY FASTER
WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGHEN AGAIN.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON
THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT ... BUT GIOVANNA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THE
PREDILECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE
NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD
TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR (SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED WITHIN THE THREATEN AREA
CITED PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 59.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 59.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.4S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.5S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.8S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.2S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.4S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.0S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 58.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUS PINHOLE-SIZED EYE HAS NOW BECOME A
LARGER, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WIDE EYE. BD ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
ARE NOW FOUND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EYE. COMPARISON OF THE 110347Z
TRMM 85 GHZ TO THE 111119Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THAT TC
12S HAS UNDERGONE, AND COMPLETED, AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC). THE TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE SMALLER
EYEWALL CONVECTION AND THE AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW CONTAINED TO THAT OUTER RING OF CONVECTION, WHICH
IS NOW THE NEW, LARGER, EYEWALL. IT SEEMS THAT SHORTLY AFTER TC
GIOVANNA UNDERWENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION THE OUTER RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION BEGAN TO FORM. THE ERC TOOK APPROXIMATELY 10 HOURS FROM
ANALYSIS OF PAST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE VISIBLE EYE IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 12S IS UNDER A SELF-INDUCED
MESO-ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 12S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOMENTARILY CREATING A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. HOWEVER, A NEW STR
IS BUILDING IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND WILL BECOME THE
STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. TC GIOVANNA WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARDS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR IN
APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 2.5 DAYS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO
THE RECENT ERC BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 72, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WILL INTERACT WITH THE VERY RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY THAT
RESIDES IN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. AFTER A PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE TO
THE TOPOGRAPHYâS FRICTIONAL FORCES, TC 12S WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT TILL TAU 72. AFTER THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE CHANNEL THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD DUE TO
DIFFERENT INITIAL POSITIONS AT THIS TIME. LEE-SIDE JUMPS IN THE LLCC
HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR THIS REGION BUT THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN
PACKING OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS (NOGAPS, GFS, ECMWF) DURING THIS
TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LAYS ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS, AFTER WHICH, THEN FAVORS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MAIN GROUPING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 120027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 58.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ ET CI=5.0
LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BANDING PATTERN STRUCTURE. THE INTENSIFICATION SEEM TO BEGIN AGAI
N VERY SLOWLY.
GLOBAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH ... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WELL SEEN ON WV I
MAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. A DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEERED THE SYSTEM ON
A GRADUALLY FASTER WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN AGAIN A LITTLE.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TH
E NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LAND
FALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT ... BUT GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANG
EROUS AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THE PREDILECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETW
EEN FENERIVE NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAV
OURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR (SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED W
ITHIN THE THREATEN AREA CITED PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 58.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ ET CI=5.0
LAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BANDING PATTERN STRUCTURE. THE INTENSIFICATION SEEM TO BEGIN AGAI
N VERY SLOWLY.
GLOBAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH ... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WELL SEEN ON WV I
MAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. A DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEERED THE SYSTEM ON
A GRADUALLY FASTER WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN AGAIN A LITTLE.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TH
E NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LAND
FALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT ... BUT GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANG
EROUS AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THE PREDILECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETW
EEN FENERIVE NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAV
OURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR (SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED W
ITHIN THE THREATEN AREA CITED PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
0 likes
Never did get the chance to restrengthen. Down to 75 kt...
WTIO30 FMEE 120646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 57.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 ET CI=5.0-
METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY KEEPS ON SHOWING A RATHER BAD DEFINED EYE
AND LAST NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EYEWALL EXISTING WITHIN
MORE THAN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0546 ASCAT SWATH.
THE MID-LEVEL BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS
AND SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTHWEST.
THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GRADUALLY
FASTER WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION IS NO MORE EXPECTED.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON
THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE
NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT
SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR
(SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED WITHIN THE THREATEN AREA CITED
PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS SYSTEM.=
WTIO30 FMEE 120646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 57.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
60H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
72H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 ET CI=5.0-
METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY KEEPS ON SHOWING A RATHER BAD DEFINED EYE
AND LAST NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EYEWALL EXISTING WITHIN
MORE THAN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0546 ASCAT SWATH.
THE MID-LEVEL BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY EVACUATING SOUTHEASTWARDS
AND SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTHWEST.
THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GRADUALLY
FASTER WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION IS NO MORE EXPECTED.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON
THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE
NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT
SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR
(SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED WITHIN THE THREATEN AREA CITED
PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS SYSTEM.=
0 likes
Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
WTXS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.4S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.0S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.5S 35.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 56.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 12S IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD-FREE
EYE. A 121108Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES AN APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WIDE
EYE. COMPARISON OF THIS AMSU-B IMAGE TO AMSU-B IMAGES IN THE PAST 6-
12 HOURS REVEALS A WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP CENTER
FIXES ALONG WITH THE AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90-102 KNOTS FROM THESE
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SELF-
INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
GIOVANNA'S TRACK SPEED HAD ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DURING THIS TIME TC 12S SHOULD SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER
TAU 36. DURING TAU 48 THE LLCC WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL FORCES OF TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU
96, THE LLCC MAY HEAD TOWARDS A SLIGHT COL REGION IN BETWEEN THE STR
TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BY TAU 120
THE NEW STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA MAY
DEFLECT TC 12S ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DURING
ITS TRANSIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY
SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF VWS AND
LIMITED TIME OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT UNTIL THE LLCC TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGES OVER THE
CHANNEL AND IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS. THE ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND
GFS LIE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND THE GFDN AND EGRR LIE TO THE LEFT.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST GROUPING TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
BASED ON MORE MEMBERS AND PAST MODEL PERFORMANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.6S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.4S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.0S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.2S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.5S 35.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 56.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 12S IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A CLOUD-FREE
EYE. A 121108Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES AN APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WIDE
EYE. COMPARISON OF THIS AMSU-B IMAGE TO AMSU-B IMAGES IN THE PAST 6-
12 HOURS REVEALS A WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP CENTER
FIXES ALONG WITH THE AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90-102 KNOTS FROM THESE
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SELF-
INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
GIOVANNA'S TRACK SPEED HAD ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DURING THIS TIME TC 12S SHOULD SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER
TAU 36. DURING TAU 48 THE LLCC WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL FORCES OF TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU
96, THE LLCC MAY HEAD TOWARDS A SLIGHT COL REGION IN BETWEEN THE STR
TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. BY TAU 120
THE NEW STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA MAY
DEFLECT TC 12S ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DURING
ITS TRANSIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY
SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF VWS AND
LIMITED TIME OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT UNTIL THE LLCC TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR AND EMERGES OVER THE
CHANNEL AND IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS. THE ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND
GFS LIE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND THE GFDN AND EGRR LIE TO THE LEFT.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST GROUPING TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
BASED ON MORE MEMBERS AND PAST MODEL PERFORMANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
TPXS12 PGTW 121803
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
B. 12/1730Z
C. 18.0S
D. 55.6E
E. THREE/MET7
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. AN IRREGULAR OW EYE
MEASURES 17NM FROM E TO W AND 9NM FROM N TO S. THE W
SURROUNDING RING MEASURES 37NM YIELDING A DT OF 6.5.
INTENSIFICATION FROM THE 24HR FT YIELDS A 6.0. PT AGREES. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
B. 12/1730Z
C. 18.0S
D. 55.6E
E. THREE/MET7
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. AN IRREGULAR OW EYE
MEASURES 17NM FROM E TO W AND 9NM FROM N TO S. THE W
SURROUNDING RING MEASURES 37NM YIELDING A DT OF 6.5.
INTENSIFICATION FROM THE 24HR FT YIELDS A 6.0. PT AGREES. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
I found a web cam from Madagascar.
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Giovanna likes her rapid intensification. From 80 kt 962 hPa back up to 100 kt 937 hPa, 2 hPa more intense than its first peak:
WTIO30 FMEE 130036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 54.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 260 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 33.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0 ET CI=6.0
GIOVANNA INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AT 6.5 FOR A FEW HOURS. 6 HOURLY AND 3 HOURLY AVERAGED
DT ARE BOTH AT 6.2 AND THE PRESENTATION IS SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED
SINCE 2330Z.
CURRENT ESTIMATION OF BOTH MSLP AND VMAX ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE GOOD AMSU (N19) INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2151Z WITH A MSLP AT
938 HPA AND MAX WIND AT 113 KT (1 MIN MEAN).LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS OCCURING (TO BE
CONFIRMED WITH MW IMAGERY)
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH.
THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARDS TO
WASTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS TUESDAY AS THE
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO STRONGER EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THAT IS IN
THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE
FOR A SYSTEM LIKE GIOVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW ... HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THAT SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
1 YEAR DAY TO DAY AFTER THE LANDFALL OF TC BINGIZA OVER THE MASAOLA
AREA, THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL EXPERIENCE A NEW CYCLONE
!! THE EXPECTED LANDFALL REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE NORTHWARD
TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE LATEST ECMWF OUTPUTS WITHIN THE LAST 36 HOURS TARGET
THE AREA BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND VATOMANDRY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITHIN THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE CLOSING OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ACCORDING TO OHC MAP
FROM THE COLORADO UNIVERSITY, THE SYSTEM COULD ENCOUNTER RATHER
LIMITED HEAT POTENTIAL WATERS SOUTH OF 22S AND WEST OF 40E. MOREOVER
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE BY THAT TIME (NEW BAROMETRIC
COL SITUATION). ACCORDING TO LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST
AGAIN SOME STRENGTHENING, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUSLY.=
WTIO30 FMEE 130036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 54.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 260 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 33.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0 ET CI=6.0
GIOVANNA INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AT 6.5 FOR A FEW HOURS. 6 HOURLY AND 3 HOURLY AVERAGED
DT ARE BOTH AT 6.2 AND THE PRESENTATION IS SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED
SINCE 2330Z.
CURRENT ESTIMATION OF BOTH MSLP AND VMAX ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE GOOD AMSU (N19) INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2151Z WITH A MSLP AT
938 HPA AND MAX WIND AT 113 KT (1 MIN MEAN).LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS OCCURING (TO BE
CONFIRMED WITH MW IMAGERY)
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH.
THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARDS TO
WASTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS TUESDAY AS THE
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO STRONGER EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THAT IS IN
THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE
FOR A SYSTEM LIKE GIOVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW ... HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THAT SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
1 YEAR DAY TO DAY AFTER THE LANDFALL OF TC BINGIZA OVER THE MASAOLA
AREA, THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL EXPERIENCE A NEW CYCLONE
!! THE EXPECTED LANDFALL REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE NORTHWARD
TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE LATEST ECMWF OUTPUTS WITHIN THE LAST 36 HOURS TARGET
THE AREA BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND VATOMANDRY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITHIN THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE CLOSING OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ACCORDING TO OHC MAP
FROM THE COLORADO UNIVERSITY, THE SYSTEM COULD ENCOUNTER RATHER
LIMITED HEAT POTENTIAL WATERS SOUTH OF 22S AND WEST OF 40E. MOREOVER
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE BY THAT TIME (NEW BAROMETRIC
COL SITUATION). ACCORDING TO LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST
AGAIN SOME STRENGTHENING, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUSLY.=
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
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- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.5S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.8S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.6S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.8S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.0S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.9S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED CONCIDENT WITH THE
EMERGENCE OF A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL 40-NM DIAMETER EYE. A 130000Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE EYE IS ENVELOPED BY A CONTINUOUS RING OF
ULTRA-DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS IN TURN SURROUNDED BY A CONCENTRIC
RING OF SHALLOW REFLECTIVITIES, CHARACTERISTIC OF INTENSE ANNULAR
CYCLONES. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OVER
THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE HAS FORMED ITS OWN MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
SOUTH. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BY TAU 48 BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL INTO
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN THAT BRINGS THE VORTEX POLEWARD
AFTER TAU 72. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
Daylight has arrived at Madagascar as you can see at web cam 7 posts above.
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Re: SIO: GIOVANNA - Intense Tropical Cyclone (12S)
Giovanna is a Category 4 storm and could hit Madagascar as one. Also, it is a large tropical cyclone with gale force winds extending up to 250 miles.
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