ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Ok, I'm gonna start it! I see a NNW wobble??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

yep I see the wobble you are talking about. Perhaps interaction with Jamaica's mountains.

[crimi481]

The wobble heads are out ! (count me in) Lots of wobbling yet to come (s. and N. coast Cuba)

[cpdaman]

she would be wise to wobble east and clear those 5k mountain in E jamaica i would think

[Weatherguy173]

5.4 Quake in the Caymans

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com//ma ... ?id=234430

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 00dcmr.php

courtesy of Sandy, haha

[SunnyThoughts]

Live Jamaica radio station http://www.kool97fm.com/ I know some of you remember listening to this station when canes in the past have approached the Island. Still playing music lol laid back and jamming.

[Bocadude85]

I expect the warnings here in south florida at 11pm tonight.

I would think warnings will be issued at 5pm.

[ozonepete]

Long-run, Euro still says NJ for landfall. Canadian says Cape Cod area, GFS says southern Maine. I think maybe somewhere in between (eastern Long Island to Cape Cod area). This could be MUCH worse than Irene. It'll be many times the size and with stronger wind than Irene. Irene was a TS with a small area of 50-60kt winds when it struck Long Island. This will have a HUGE area of 50kt winds. Surge potential is much greater.

Your analysis for the longer range seems really sound, wxman. The current HPC 7 day forecast has this coming onshore on eastern Long Island next Wednesday morning as a very large powerful storm. What's highly unusual is that it will be coming from the east and moving westward - very rare. The only hurricane/noreaster I can think of that ever moved like that was the famous Halloween storm (the "perfect storm") of 1991, Unfortunately I agree that this looks to be much worse than Irene if the forecasts pan out. Very high water and damaging waves can be expected over a very large area of coastline from Jersey to Massachusetts.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think a Hurricane watch will be issued for south florida tonight?

[adam0983]

It appears on the visibile satelitte that Sandy is moving more nw than north.

[SFLcane]

I expect the warnings here in south florida at 11pm tonight.

I would think warnings will be issued at 5pm.

As it stands there are no warnings or watches in affect for inland metro areas of south florida. Coastal locations will likely get a warning at 5. Inland 25-35mph with gusts to 40-50 is whats in the cards now per wfo here in miami. Please correct me if iam wrong.

[adam0983]

Lets hope that all we get here.

[brunota2003]

So, looking at everything, what kind of surge are we talking about around the NYC area? I know the subways become vulnerable at some point, along with a good chunk of the city. Do I need to find the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" episode? Of course, this isn't to downplay the threats elsewhere...but if this looks to happen, being a week out, I would imagine any evacuations would have to start within the next few days?

[ozonepete]

Does anyone think a Hurricane watch will be issued for south florida tonight?

I don't. I agree with wxman57 that even with a wind field expanding to the west hurricane force winds won't make it onshore at the coast. Tropical Storm warnings should be sufficient.

[OuterBanker]

Wxman, is this as ominous as it sounds? Earlier post plus discussion.

FXUS62 KMHX 241813
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
213 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012




LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT COASTAL EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...AND
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE POSITIONING
THE STORM NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THIS POINT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE STORM WILL EVOLVE AND WHETHER IT WILL START
BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL...AS TROPICAL SYSTEMS TEND TO DO NORTH OF
THIS LATITUDE THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MID CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ACT TO DRAW THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AND OFF
THE NC COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND.

THERE IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER REGARDING HOW CLOSE
SANDY GETS TO THE NC COASTLINE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TAKING THE STORM IN A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AND
HAVING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST ROUGHLY AT 300 MILES. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND HAS BEEN TAKING THE STORM MORE NORTH
NORTH EASTWARD AND BRINGING IT TO WITHIN ABOUT 200 MILES OF THE
COAST. ONE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
FORECASTED LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE
NCEP AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT BLOCKING PATTERN IN GREENLAND. THIS IN TURN
WOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND THEREFORE A
SLIGHTLY CLOSER APPROACH TO THE NC COAST AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
ALLUDING TO.

SEVERAL IMPORTANT POINTS TO NOTE THIS WEEKEND. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO
BE A LONG DURATION STORM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS...LARGE BATTERING WAVES... AND
HEAVY RAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE STORM IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE WATERS...THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM AS IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WILL ACT TO HAVE A PROLONGED STRONG
NORTHERLY FETCH AS IT CREEPS UP THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO PRODUCE BEACH EROSION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND. SHOULD THE CLOSER-TO-THE COAST
SOLUTION VERIFY...COPIOUS RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 8 INCHES OR
MORE WOULD BE LIKELY.

RESIDENTS OF EASTERN NC ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS
DEVELOPING POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT SITUATION AS FUTURE FORECASTS
ARE FINE TUNED AND PREPARE TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.






LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE HIGH
IMPACT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NC WATERS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CUBA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PARALLEL THE NC COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING AT
LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE...AS
PROLONGED NORTHERLY FETCH WINDS AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
COAST. LONG PERIOD SWELL BUILDS TO 6 FEET FRIDAY MORNING AS FCST
BY WAVEWATCH...AND PEAKS AT 20 FEET OR MORE ON SUNDAY. WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS THAT FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY GUIDING THE STORM SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST VERSUS
THE GFS...AND WOULD BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS.
THOSE WITH MARINE INTERESTS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SITUATION.

[SFLcane]

Does anyone think a Hurricane watch will be issued for south florida tonight?

I don't. I agree with wxman57 that even with a wind field expanding to the west hurricane force winds won't make it onshore at the coast. Tropical Storm warnings should be sufficient.

Can you elaborate a bit on who is currently under watches in southern florida if you dont mind. From my point of view coastal areas will get warnings this afternoon or late tonight. These areas should experience the worst sandy has to offer. Breezy to windy else were.

[Bocadude85]

I expect the warnings here in south florida at 11pm tonight.

I would think warnings will be issued at 5pm.

As it stands there are no warnings or watches in affect for inland metro areas of south florida. Coastal locations will likely get a warning at 5. Inland 25-35mph with gusts to 40-50 is whats in the cards now per wfo here in miami. Please correct me if iam wrong.

Sounds about right though I see mention of gusts to 55mph in inland palm beach county

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Sandy makes landfall in Jamaica

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[crimi481]

I am no Pro -but just watching loop - seems like ridging to Sandy's North, wants to push her more West?
Effects of diving Trough wouln't come into play for few days yet?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[Hurricane Alexis]

="Bocadude85"]

I expect the warnings here in south florida at 11pm tonight.

I would think warnings will be issued at 5pm.

As it stands there are no warnings or watches in affect for inland metro areas of south florida. Coastal locations will likely get a warning at 5. Inland 25-35mph with gusts to 40-50 is whats in the cards now per wfo here in miami. Please correct me if iam wrong.

Sounds about right though I see mention of gusts to 55mph in inland palm beach county

I live 2 miles inland from Biscayne Bay so I think I would be in the watch area right?

[Blown Away]

I am no Pro -but just watching loop - seems like ridging to Sandy's North, wants to push her more West?
Effects of diving Trough wouln't come into play for few days yet?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

I love to wobble watch and IMO Sandy is on track to be slightly left of the next forecast point.