ATL: ISAAC - Models

[gboudx]

It appears we are very near the point where the GFS has been forecasting the westward meandering along the La coastline. It's put up or shut up time for the GFS with this very consistent forecast.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Lafayette takes quite a battering with that latest track. With its slow motion the surge could be pretty high along the coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

Naa...moving north from Lake Charles at 45h



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[Wx_Warrior]

Lafayette getting drenched is an understatement.

[Blinhart]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F28%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=039&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


heading to Warriors house....

Well at the 48 hour mark it is right over my house.

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


51hr moving into east texas

[ROCK]

Looks like Lafayette takes quite a battering with that latest track. With its slow motion the surge could be pretty high along the coast.

oh if this verifies you are going to get hammered if you live in Lafayette.

[PTrackerLA]

I wonder what the winds would be like for Lafayette in that run considering that it seems to move up to us from Vermilion Bay.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +42 (Inland)

[BreinLa]

Looks like Lafayette takes quite a battering with that latest track. With its slow motion the surge could be pretty high along the coast.

Ahem

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Lafayette takes quite a battering with that latest track. With its slow motion the surge could be pretty high along the coast.

Ahem

Hard to believe right now last night I was convinced we would hardly get any weather from Isaac. I haven't even secured things outside yet

[Wx_Warrior]

Models are good, but this close, NEED to watch the storm itself.

[Houstonia]

Hou/Galv 10:00 am discussion (it's model-heavy with it's terminology, so feel it is okay here):

edited for brevity

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1010 am CDT Tuesday Aug 28 2012

Update...
see morning update.
Discussion...

Isaac still prognosticated by TPC to make landfall over southeast Louisiana. The
12z NAM is trending further west with Isaac and it is looking more
and more like the 00z European model (ecmwf). There could be some significant
changes in the forecast package this afternoon if the 12z GFS supports
the the 12z NAM. The NAM is advertising that the inflow for Isaac
will come through east/southeast Texas on Thursday night and
Friday. This band of higher moisture could cause significantly
higher rain chances than is currently projected. The current TPC
track would keep the heavy rain axis east of southeast Texas. 43

[Jevo]

disregard.. Ill wait lol

[Jevo]

12z GFS +144

Isaac finally getting caught up in the jet stream and heading to greenland... This may be the midwest drought buster

[catskillfire51]

It is now hurricane isaac that we are talking about.

[thetruesms]

So, as I've had free minutes here and there, I've been comparing the 8/27 00Z run of a short-range WRF build (36 hours) a coworker and I have been experimenting with, and compared it to the NHC advisory positions and intensity. The positions are actually decently good. At 0, 12, and 24 hours, the model is near or a little better than the 5-year NHC average error. At 36, it crushed the NHC average (15.1 miles versus 65.9 miles). I'm certain that was mostly luck, though. Comparing the model's central pressure to NHC's advisory prssure, not so much. The two were comparable through the first 21 hours, then the WRF just started running away. At 36 hours, our WRF had 966, while the advisory pressure was 976 Whoopsie.

[Portastorm]

Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ...

[Karen124]

Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ...

I think we're just at that point where you watch the radar. It'll either make landfall or won't.

[wxwatcher1999]

Has the ukmet run yet?