ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[jhpigott]

Does the NHC update Watches/Warnings at the intermediate advisories or just at the 5pm, 11pm, 5am, 5pm advisories?

[Evil Jeremy]

Does the NHC update Watches/Warnings at the intermediate advisories or just at the 5pm, 11pm, 5am, 5pm advisories?

Only the 5s and 11s.

[Florida1118]

Does the NHC update Watches/Warnings at the intermediate advisories or just at the 5pm, 11pm, 5am, 5pm advisories?

Only the 5s and 11s.

They can update watches or warnings at the intermediate. They have done so often.

[cycloneye]

No updates to watches and warnings at 2 PM advisory.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

[JamesCaneTracker]

Does the NHC update Watches/Warnings at the intermediate advisories or just at the 5pm, 11pm, 5am, 5pm advisories?

Only the 5s and 11s.

They can update watches or warnings at the intermediate. They have done so often.

Yeah they can even update watches and Warning in between the updates as well by issuing a Special Update.

[crimi481]

Its amazing. No ULL partnering with Sandy.
Very little dry air immediately surrounding part of core of Sandy. And it almost Nov 1
Overal size of system is expanding some

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

[Blown Away]

No updates to watches and warnings at 2 PM advisory.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

76.8W at 2pm
76.7W at 11am

[bucman1]

what would cause a center reformation and do we anticipate the possibility of that happening?

[bahamaswx]

what would cause a center reformation and do we anticipate the possibility of that happening?

No. This is a well-established center in a well-organized storm.

[Hurricane Alexis]

What are the chances of a TS warning on the FL coast? Can this be worse for FL than noel from 2007?

[Evil Jeremy]

What are the chances of a TS warning on the FL coast? Can this be worse for FL than noel from 2007?

Very likely. I think the warnings will come for SEFL at 5pm, and the rest of the watch area at 11pm.

[MiamiensisWx]

The center is about to move inland just under 10 n mi east of Kingston, Jamaica, at the current rate.

[tolakram]

Java Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest

[wxman57]

If the track of Sandy continues to shift west. Does anyone think that Hurricane watches and warnings will be needed for parts of Florida?

There is nothing to indicate a potential hurricane impact in Florida, so I wouldn't anticipate any such watches/warnings.

except for the reliable models indicating the potential for near hurricane force winds.

Hurricane force winds aren't going to extend 150 miles west of the track in 36 hrs. The global models won't handle a TC's wind field well. Still looks like the east coast of FL is brushed by TS winds starting tomorrow evening.

Long-run, Euro still says NJ for landfall. Canadian says Cape Cod area, GFS says southern Maine. I think maybe somewhere in between (eastern Long Island to Cape Cod area). This could be MUCH worse than Irene. It'll be many times the size and with stronger wind than Irene. Irene was a TS with a small area of 50-60kt winds when it struck Long Island. This will have a HUGE area of 50kt winds. Surge potential is much greater.

[SFLcane]

At this point i would not rule out anything wxman57. Who's to say this storm does not track on the left side of the cone?

[tolakram]

Hi res view

[GCANE]

5.4 Quake in the Caymans

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com//ma ... ?id=234430

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 00dcmr.php

[stormgeek]

I expect the warnings here in south florida at 11pm tonight.

[Blown Away]

Ok, I'm gonna start it! I see a NNW wobble??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[SFLcane]

Storm as of now is void of any real signifcant rainbands on its left side. Dealing with some shear/dry air.

Subject to change of course.