ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#521 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:52 pm

wont be long they will be shifting out to sea..... :lol: this is carbon copy of TD 7...caught up in the low level flow so much so that it cant even maintain convecion. I think the EURO has done a good job with this one so far....it has always showed a weak system whereas the GFS was blowing this up from the very beginning.....still think this will pass under the islands as a weak something...TD or TW....


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#522 Postby Stormlover2012 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:07 pm

http://hurricanetrack.com/2012/08/20/tr ... rk-so-far/\\

this is from sudduth from hurricanetrack.com and I agree with him also
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#523 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:10 pm

New EURO out yet?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#524 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:10 pm

You got that right Rock. Models are useless this far out. I'd eat my underwear if it even hit Florida. They are so useless that it's like watching a Saturday morning cartoon with the kids. We are years away from a invest 1000's of miles away and showing to any accuracy where it will go. Even within 100 miles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#525 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:26 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:New EURO out yet?



you are being lazy.... :lol: :lol: out 120hr under the islands....nothing really to see but a low pressure area....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#526 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:26 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

12z dynamic models, shifting north with each run.


Depends on the ridge strength later in the forecast, the models had Ernesto recurving north up into the big islands at one point. Models will probably start trending back left again if 94L stays weak. Should see more panhandle landfall solutions soon.

Trend is our friend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#527 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:33 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:You got that right Rock. Models are useless this far out. I'd eat my underwear if it even hit Florida. They are so useless that it's like watching a Saturday morning cartoon with the kids. We are years away from a invest 1000's of miles away and showing to any accuracy where it will go. Even within 100 miles.



Um, FL is very much in the way here and I wouldnt bet on eating my underwear... :D ...not sure though for what if anything FL might get. We have a weak LLC moving at 25 mph west...that will be under the islands or above them in short term....thats about as far as I would go right now....JMO....

BTW- I like watching cartoons with my 5yr old daughter....:)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#528 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:34 pm

144hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#529 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:36 pm

Looks like GFS run just weaker and tad south.
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Re:

#530 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:39 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:Looks like GFS run just weaker and tad south.




EURO has always had it weak for many days now....I think its having a hard time though once it gets into the carib....at 144hr it shows a very large area of low pressure...expanding from DR down towards Jamiaca...looks like its guessing.... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#531 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:41 pm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif


right under Cuba...still weak....at 168hr...
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#532 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:42 pm

FWIW, HPC day 6-7 maps have a low pressure area analyzed in the vicinity of the NW Caribbean/SW FL. Kind of curves up through Cuba and then is planted just off the SW coast of FL at day 7.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter
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Re: Re:

#533 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:42 pm

ROCK wrote:
SeminoleWind wrote:Looks like GFS run just weaker and tad south.




EURO has always had it weak for many days now....I think its having a hard time though once it gets into the carib....at 144hr it shows a very large area of low pressure...expanding from DR down towards Jamiaca...looks like its guessing.... :D


Gee Rock...Is that you taking a shot at the EURO??? :D

In all seriousness I think the consensus is to have something South of Cuba or North of Haiti in about 5-6 days...What happens then as far as strength and track will be the big question.

SFT
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#534 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:47 pm

looks like @ 192 HRs its starts getting its legs.
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Re:

#535 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:49 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:Looks like GFS run just weaker and tad south.


I don't think it is as weak as the last night's run, which split it in two and sent north toward florida as a rainy mess.. this run again shows that hispainola roughs it up quite a bit.
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Re: Re:

#536 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:49 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
ROCK wrote:
SeminoleWind wrote:Looks like GFS run just weaker and tad south.




EURO has always had it weak for many days now....I think its having a hard time though once it gets into the carib....at 144hr it shows a very large area of low pressure...expanding from DR down towards Jamiaca...looks like its guessing.... :D


Gee Rock...Is that you taking a shot at the EURO??? :D

In all seriousness I think the consensus is to have something South of Cuba or North of Haiti in about 5-6 days...What happens then as far as strength and track will be the big question.

SFT



:lol: :lol: I am still alittle gun shy about that whole Debbie screw up......


192hr crossing Cuba

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#537 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:52 pm

216hr moving over FL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#538 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:53 pm

this run is very similiar to the 12z GFS .. interesting:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
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#539 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:53 pm

looks like 216 Hrs into south Florida, weak T.S.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#540 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:54 pm

Hopefully we're seeing some consistency with the models now.
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